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Search Results: 99
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18 Oct 2019 MPs Are Set to Reject the New Brexit Deal, An Election Still is Imminent (Publication Centre)

PM Johnson has conceded considerable ground over the terms of Brexit for Northern Ireland in order to get a deal over the line in time for MPs to vote on it on Saturday, before the Benn Act requires him to seek an extension.

11 January 2019 MPs Will Steer the PM to a Softer Brexit After Next Week's Defeat (Publication Centre)

The government remains on course to lose next Tuesday's Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--by a huge margin.

5 December 2018 How's the Maths in Parliament Looking for a People's Vote? (Publication Centre)

With less than a week to go until MPs' meaningful vote on Brexit legislation, on December 11, the Prime Minister still looks set to lose.

20 November 2018 The PM is Likely to Hang on, Even if a Confidence Vote is Triggered (Publication Centre)

As we write, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed publicly that they have submitted no-confidence letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. That's 23 short of the 48 required to trigger a leadership contest, though some MPs might have submitted letters without making it public.

25 January 2019 How Would an Extension of Article 50 Affect the MPC's Rate Hike Plans? (Publication Centre)

MPs look set to take a decisive step next Tuesday towards removing the risk of a calamitous no-deal Brexit at the end of March.

28 November 2018 Investors Shouldn't Fret about the Risk of a Corbyn Government (Publication Centre)

Some analysts argue that sterling won't recover materially even if MPs wave through Brexit legislation, because the threat of a Labour government worries investors more than a messy departure from the EU.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small (Publication Centre)

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

28 Oct 2019 The PM Can Get His Election Soon, But He Must Pay a Higher Price (Publication Centre)

MPs will be asked today to approve the PM's motion, proposed in accordance with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act--FTPA--to hold a general election on December 12.

20 June 2018 Today's Brexit Bill Vote is a Close Call, but Bigger Decisions Lie Ahead (Publication Centre)

The vote in the House of Commons today on whether MPs should effectively take control of Brexit negotiations, if Theresa May can't strike a deal by mid-January, looks finely balanced.

25 March 2019 The Long-Awaited Soft Brexit Pivot is Now Getting Underway (Publication Centre)

We expect MPs this week to take a big step towards a soft Brexit, which has been our base case since the referendum.

20 February 2017 Should Sterling Investors Fear a Snap General Election? (Publication Centre)

Elections will be held on Thursday in two constituencies vacated recently by Labour MPs. Betting markets are pricing-in a 70% chance that the Conservatives will win the by-election in Copeland--even though they trailed Labour there by eight points in the general election in 2015--mainly because around 60% of Copeland's electorate voted to leave the EU last year.

7 Aug 2019 Will Tory Rebels Vote with the Opposition in a No-Confidence Vote? (Publication Centre)

According to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, it is "almost inevitable" that Labour will table a no-confidence motion in the government next month, shortly after MPs return from the summer recess on September 3.

13 December 2018 Assuming the PM Wins, the Path to a Softer Brexit Will Become Clearer (Publication Centre)

After seemingly endless speculation, the confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership of the Conservative party finally has been triggered following the submission of at least 48 letters by disgruntled MPs to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.

19 April 2017 Markets Overlook the Downside Risks from June's Snap Election (Publication Centre)

Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement that Parliament will vote today on holding a general election on June 8 shocked markets and even her own party's MPs. Betting markets were pricing in only a 20% chance of a 2017 election before yesterday's news.

18 Nov 2019 Plenty of Time Remains for the Election Race to Narrow (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives have maintained a substantial poll lead over Labour since MPs voted two weeks ago to hold a December 12 general election.

19 February 2019 A 2019 General Election No Longer is So Implausible (Publication Centre)

The decision by seven MPs to abandon Labour and set up a new centrist grouping--the Independent Group--will not have a significant impact on the outcome of parliamentary Brexit votes.

19 November 2018 Keep the Faith in Stronger Sterling by the End of March (Publication Centre)

Sterling took another pounding last week. Resignations from the Cabinet, protests by the DUP, and the public submission of letters by 21 MPs calling for a confidence vote in Mrs. May's leadership, imply that parliament won't ratify the current versions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration on the future relationship with the E.U. next month.

2 Sept 2019 Anti No-Deal MPs Likely will Prevail, Though the Timing is Tight this Week (Publication Centre)

We still think it is a question of when--not if-- MPs will be successful in taking a no -deal Brexit off the table.

Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December

24 September 2018 The Prime Minister has Doubled Down on a Weak Hand (Publication Centre)

Theresa May doubled down on her Brexit stance last week, despite European Council President Donald Tusk stating clearly that her proposed framework for economic cooperation "will not work" because it risks undermining the single market.

24 Oct 2019 Which Fork in the Road Will the PM Take? (Publication Centre)

The PM now is at a fork in the road and will have to decide in the coming days whether to risk all and seek a general election, or restart the process of trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in (Publication Centre)

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

24 June 2019 The New PM Soon will be Asking for a Further Brexit Extension (Publication Centre)

British politics remains a complete mess, with many outcomes, ranging from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, possible in the second half of this year.

29 October 2018 Is the Only Way Up for Public Borrowing from Here? (Publication Centre)

Later today, the Chancellor likely will take the first step towards abandoning plans for further fiscal tightening. In

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.

27 February 2019 Mrs. May's No-Deal Brexit U-turn Demonstrates Remainers' Leverage (Publication Centre)

Sterling has appreciated sharply over the last two weeks and yesterday briefly touched its highest level against the euro since May 2017.

22 Oct 2019 Even if the PM Prevails Today, a No- Confidence Vote Could Force a Delay (Publication Centre)

Sterling briefly touched $1.30 yesterday, in response to signs that a very small majority in the Commons stands ready to vote for an unamended version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB-- on Tuesday.

21 January 2019 How Far Will Sterling Jump if a Soft Brexit Becomes Government Policy? (Publication Centre)

Signs that the government is softening its Brexit plans, in response to its substantial defeat in the Commons last week, has enabled sterling to recover most of the ground lost against the dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of last year.

20 December 2017 Don't Lose Sleep Over the Possibility of a Corbyn Government (Publication Centre)

The possibility of a Corbyn-led Labour Government has been highlighted by some analysts as a major economic risk. Mr. Corbyn, however, has little practical chance of being elected soon.

19 Nov 2019 The Size of any Tory Majority Matters for Sterling's Medium-term Path (Publication Centre)

Investors have welcomed the flurry of encouraging opinion polls for the Conservatives that were published over the weekend, with cable rising nearly to $1.30 on Monday, a level last seen on a sustained basis six months ago.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

22 January 2019 The Prime Minister's Plan B Has Little Chance of Success (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister has revealed that her Plan B for Brexit is to get Eurosceptics within the Tory party on side in an attempt to show the E.U. that a deal could be done if the backstop for Northern Ireland was amended. Her plan is highly likely to fail, again.

23 Oct 2019 Take the PM's Threat of a General Election Seriously (Publication Centre)

As we write, the Commons appears to be on the verge of voting for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--at its second reading but then voting against the government's "Programme Motion", which sets out a very tight timetable for its passage through parliament, in a bid to meet the October 31 deadline and to minimise parliamentary scrutiny.

23 July 2019 How Long Until the Next General Election? (Publication Centre)

The spectre of a general election relentlessly will haunt the new Prime Minister--due to be announced as Tory party leader today before moving into Downing Street tomorrow--but our base case remains that a poll won't happen this year.

3 Dec 2019 Can Labour Continue to Reduce the Tories' Poll Lead? (Publication Centre)

The political momentum in the run-up to the election now lies with Labour.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was possible in the next couple of weeks, enabling the U.K. to leave the E.U. on October 31.

5 March 2018 Parliament Eventually will Bring Mrs. May Back to the Real World (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister told the public to "face up to some hard facts" about Brexit in her speech on Friday, but she still clung to an unachievable vision of what Britain can hope to achieve.

7 June 2017 A Tory Victory Wouldn't Necessarily Boost Sterling this Time (Publication Centre)

Predicting which way markets would move in response to potential general election outcomes has been relatively straightforward in the past. But the usual rules of thumb will not apply when the election results filter through after polling stations close on Thursday evening.

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

6 July 2018 How will the E.U. Respond to the Prime Minister's Latest Brexit Plan? (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dysfunctional cabinet will meet at the Prime Minister's country retreat today to agree--finally--on a set of proposals for how Britain will trade outside of the E .U.'s customs union and single market.

7 Nov 2019 GDP Likely Was Little Changed in September, Rounding off a Solid Q3 (Publication Centre)

The economic data calendar for next week is so congested that we need to preview early September's GDP report, released on Monday.

7 November 2018 Should a 2019 General Election be the Base Case? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent is rarely out of the news. At present, betting markets see about a 35% chance of another election in 2019, broadly the same chance as one in 2022, when it is currently scheduled to be held.

9 January 2017 Will Sterling Take a Further Pounding in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Sterling was the worst performing G10 currency in 2016 and most analysts anticipate further weakness in 2017. The cost of purchasing downside protection for sterling over the next year also continues to exceed upside protection, as our first chart shows.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP (Publication Centre)

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

7 Oct 2019 Business Investment is not Destined to Slump, Despite Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)

Make no mistake, business investment has been depressed by Brexit uncertainty over the last year.

6 Dec 2019 Only Limited Upside for Sterling in the Event of a Tory Election Win (Publication Centre)

For sterling traders, no election news is good news.

5 Nov 2019 How Much Further Can Support for the Two Main Parties Rally? (Publication Centre)

Support in opinion polls for both the Conservatives and Labour has been increasing steadily.

30 Oct 2019 Don't Put All Your Election Chips on Blue (Publication Centre)

Britain looks set for a general election during the week commencing December 9, now that all main parties are pushing for a pre-Christmas poll.

30 January 2018 Is Sterling's Strong Start to 2018 Warranted? (Publication Centre)

Sterling has begun this year on the front foot, rising last week to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2016.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

31 January 2019 A Two-Week Delay is All the Prime Minister has Achieved (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister achieved a rare victory yesterday, when the Commons passed the government-backed Brady amendment.

4 May 2017 How to Interpret the Results from Today's Local Elections (Publication Centre)

Today's local elections are more important than usual, because they will enable investors to assess if the Conservatives really are on track for a landslide victory in the general election, as suggested by the opinion polls and priced-in by the forex market.

18 Oct 2019 The New Brexit Deal is a Classic EU Fudge, Will it Sink or Swim (Publication Centre)

Our first impression of the proposed Brexit deal between the EU and the U.K. is that it is sufficiently opaque for both sides to claim that they have stuck to their guns, even if in reality, they have both made concessions.

5 June 2018 A Customs Union U-turn is Coming, but not Until the Autumn (Publication Centre)

In theory, June should be a crunch month for Theresa May's Brexit plans. The Prime Minister will meet EU leaders on June 28 and hopes to have found a consensus in cabinet by then for how the U.K. will trade with the EU outside of the customs union.

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

15 March 2019 Attempts by the PM to Revive Her Brexit Deal will Fail Again (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister is threatening to bring back her Brexit deal to the Commons for a third time before March 20, in a final bid to win over the rebels within the Tory party who want a harder Brexit.

12 Nov 2019 The Downside Surprise from Q3 GDP has a Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

The headline figures from yesterday's GDP report gave a bad impression. September's 0.1% month-to- month decline in GDP matched the consensus and primarily reflected mean-reversion in car production and car sales, which both picked up in August.

13 March 2019 Brexit Uncertainty Set to Continue into Q2, but the Economy Can Cope (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, Mrs. May's last-minute scramble to Strasbourg appears to have failed to persuade enough rebels to back the government.

12 April 2019 The Brexit Extension isn't the Death Knell for a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps (Publication Centre)

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.

17 Oct 2019 The Upward Trend in Domestically- Generated Inflation Is Clear (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from implementing more stimulus was bolstered by September's consumer prices figures.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

14 December 2018 Remainer Tory Rebels now have Greater Leverage (Publication Centre)

After the drama of the last few days, Brexit developments now are set to proceed at a slower pace.

10 May 2019 Is the Risk of a No-Deal Brexit Rising Again? (Publication Centre)

Unsurprisingly, cross-party Brexit talks are not going well.

16 November 2018 When Parliament Votes Down the Withdrawal Deal, What Next? (Publication Centre)

Even if the Prime Minister fends off an emerging leadership challenge--as we write, the rebels still are short of the 48 signatures required to trigger a confidence vote--her chances of getting parliament to back the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form are slim.

16 Oct 2019 Momentum in Wage Growth Continues to Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The Brexit-related slump in corporate confidence finally has taken its toll on hiring.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

15 Oct 2019 Below-Consensus September CPI Won't Strengthen Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation held steady at 1.7%, below the 1.8% consensus.

15 Aug 2019 Mr. Trump Takes a Dose of Reality on Tariffs, but is he Narrativising HK (Publication Centre)

Nobody has a monopoly on "the truth".

17 July 2018 Is the Prime Minister "A Dead Woman Walking"? (Publication Centre)

Former Chancellor George Osborne famously quipped after last year's general election that Theresa May was "a dead woman walking and the only question is how long she remains on death row".

5 January 2018 Time to Talk Chinese New Year Already, Ignore the PMI Jumps (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI jumped sharply to 53.9 in December from 51.9 in November. All the PMIs picked up significantly, but we find this hard to believe and suspect seasonality is to blame, though the adjustment is tricky.

1 December 2017 The BoK Jumps on the Global Tightening Wave. Rocky Ride Ahead (Publication Centre)

President Moon was elected earlier this year on a promise to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand and reduce export dependency. It's not the first time politicians have received such a mandate.

BBC - US jobs growth jumps in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Employment in November

21 December 2018 The MPC Will Act Quickly When Brexit Uncertainty Fades (Publication Centre)

The minutes of this week's MPC meeting indicate that it won't waste any time to raise interest rates after MPs finally have signed off a Brexit deal.

22 November 2018 Korea's Export Slump in November Points to Further Global Softness (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.

22 November. 2016 Will November EZ Survey Data Take a Step Back this Week? (Publication Centre)

November data for most of the major EZ business and consumer surveys arrive this week. We doubt the reports will change our view that EZ GDP growth likely will remain steady at about 1.6% year-over-year in Q4. But appearances matter, and risks are tilted to the downside in some of the main surveys, after jumps in October.

29 January 2019 A Guide to Today's Key Brexit Votes in Parliament (Publication Centre)

Votes in the House of Commons to day likely will mark the start of MPs stamping their collective will on the Brexit process, following the Prime Minister's botched attempt at getting the current Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration through parliament earlier this month.

14 November 2017 Are Investors Complacent to Expect a Smooth Brexit Transition in 2019? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened yesterday, to $1.31 from $1.32, following news that 40 Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.

12 March 2019 PM Set for Defeat, Whether Today's Vote is "Conditional" or Not (Publication Centre)

Mrs. May looks set to lose the second "meaningful vote" on the Withdrawal Agreement-- WA--today, whether she decides on a straightforward vote or one asking MPs to b ack it if some hypothetical concessions are achieved.

13 September 2018 A Leadership Contest Might be Imminent, but Mrs. May Won't Lose (Publication Centre)

Sterling held on to its recent gains yesterday despite mounting speculation that Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are plotting a leadership challenge.

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer (Publication Centre)

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.

29 March 2017 Triggering Article 50 Won't End the "Phoney War" Immediately (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 today, marking the end of the beginning of the U.K.'s departure from the EU. The move likely will not move markets, as it has been all but certain since MPs backed the Government's European Union Bill on February 1.

4 October 2017 ADP to Show Slower Job Gains Last Month, but will Overstate BLS Data (Publication Centre)

Today brings the first glimpse of the post-hurricane employment picture, in the form of the September ADP report.

6 Sept 2019 Sterling Will Struggle to Recover Further this Side of the Election (Publication Centre)

Sterling recovered to $1.23 yesterday, its highest level since late July, in response to the sharp decline in the risk of a no -deal Brexit at the end of October, triggered by MPs' actions.

3 April 2019 Is there a Majority in the Commons for Any Brexit Proposal? (Publication Centre)

Once again, MPs failed to coalesce around any way forward for Brexit in the indicative votes process on Monday.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

*August 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP Growth will revive in Q3; The MPC won't ease...MPs will block a no-deal Brexit again in October

4 Sept 2019 The Conservatives' Poll Lead Does Not Have Strong Foundations (Publication Centre)

A general election this year now looks inevitable, after the defection of Phillip Lee MP from the Tories to the Lib Dems, and the PM's threat to seek an election if MPs take control of the Order Paper on Tuesday evening.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

30 May 2017 Should Investors Start to Fear a Hung Parliament? (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives' opinion poll rating has fallen dramatically over the last 10 days or so, pushing sterling down and forcing investors to confront the possibility that Theresa May might not increase her majority much from the current paltry 17 MPs.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

3 May 2018 Can the Prime Minister Fight off the Brexiteers in her Party? (Publication Centre)

The pressure on Theresa May from Brexiteers within her own party intensified yesterday, when 60 Conservative MPs signed a letter arguing that they could not back a proposal for a "customs partnership".

30 January 2018 Closing the Book on a Spectacular 2017 for the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's data in the Eurozone will provide the first glimpse of what happened in Q4. We think Eurostat's advance estimate will show that EZ real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, down slightly from an upwardly-revised 0.7% in Q3.

Reuters Poll - Andres Abadia named Top FX Latam Forecaster for 2017 (Media Centre)

Andres Abadia named top Latam FX Forecaster for 2017 by Reuters

Consistently Right

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