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2 July 2018 Chile's Solid Domestic Demand Will Help Against External Jitters (Publication Centre)

Mexico's election results are not available as we go to press, but we're expecting a comfortable win for the left-wing populist candidate, AMLO.

19 May 2017 Brazil's Economy Doing Well, But Severe Political Risk is Back (Publication Centre)

Political risk in Brazil has increased substantially, following reports that President Temer was taped in an alleged cover-up scheme involving the jailed former Speaker of the House. If the tapes are verified, calls for Mr. Temer to face impeachment will mount.

20 July 2018 Japan's Trade Balance Continues to Whipsaw Where is it Going Next (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus has whipsawed recently. Sharp changes are to be expected in January and February, due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year.

20 March 2017 The BCCh Leaves Open a Tiny Space for Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank cut the policy rate 25bp last week to 3.0%, in line with consensus, amid easing inflationary pressures. The timing of the rate cut was no surprise; in January, the BCCh cut rates for the first time in more than two years, and kept a dovish bias.

20 March 2018 Brazil and Chile are Strengthening Expect Further Good News this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery is consolidating, with recent data flow confirming that the economy had an encouraging start to the year.

19 March 2019 Don't get Used to a Japanese Trade Surplus Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance flipped back to a modest surplus of ¥116B in February, after seven straight months of deficit.

19 March 2019 Chile's Economy to Gather Speed Over the Second Half of the Year (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q4 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy accelerated at the end of last year, supported by rising capex and solid consumption.

14 December 2018 Japan's Trade Deficit will soon Diminish, but not in November (Publication Centre)

Data released earlier this week show that Japan's current account surplus continued its downtrend in October, falling to ¥1,404B, on our seasonal adjustment, from ¥1,494B in September.

13 February 2017 BCCh Says it's not Worried About Inflation, Will it Ease Tomorrow? (Publication Centre)

Chile's Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, scheduled for tomorrow, likely will be one of the most difficult in recent months. Economic activity remains soft, and GDP likely contracted in Q4, due to weakness in mining output and investment.

14 March 2017 Commodity Prices won't Alter the Improving LatAm Picture (Publication Centre)

The medium-term outlook in most LatAm economies is improving, though economic activity is likely to remain anaemic in the near term. The gradual recovery in commodity prices is supporting resource economies, while the post-election surge in global stock prices has boosted confidence. But country-specific domestic considerations are equally relevant; the growth stories differ across the region.

15 September. 2016 Will September's Regional Surveys Follow the ISM's Drop? (Publication Centre)

Today's huge wall of data will add significantly to our understanding of third quarter economic growth, with new information on consumers' spending, industrial activity, inflation and business sentiment. In light of the unexpected drop in the ISM surveys in August, we are very keen to see the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys for September.

19 July 2017 Peru's Economy is Recovering But Temporary Political Noise is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Following a challenging start to this year, Andean economic prospects are improving gradually, thanks to falling interest rates, lower inflation, relatively stable currencies and--in some cases--increased infrastructure spending.

21 June 2017 Q3 LatAm FX Will be Driven by Fundamentals and Commodities (Publication Centre)

LatAm investors' concerns about U.S. monetary policy expectations and the broad direction of the USD should on the back burner until the Fed hikes again, likely in September. This will leave room for country-specific drivers to take centre stage. That should support Mexico's MXN, which already has risen 14% year-to-date against the USD, erasing its losses after the US election last November.

20 June 2019 Japan's Trade Balance has Troughed, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade balance deteriorated sharply in May, flipping to a ¥967B deficit from the modest ¥57B surplus in April.

6 June 2017 Andes Economies to Recover in H2, Thanks to Loose Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Recent data have confirmed that growth in the Andean economies--Colombia, Chile and Peru--faced downward pressure in Q1, but some leading indicators and recent hard data suggest that we should expect better news ahead.

5 May 2017 Brazil's Industrial Output Dropped in March, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Brazilian industrial production data were worse than we expected but the details were less alarming than the headline. Output slipped 1.8% month-to-month in March, the biggest fall since August 2015, setting a low starting point for Q2.

21 March 2017 LatAm's Gradual Recovery will Ease Concerns on the Fiscal Front (Publication Centre)

Latin American markets have been relatively resilient this year, despite Fed tightening and high global political risks. The LACI index has risen more than 5% year-to-date, and the MSCI index has been trending higher since late last year.

7 April 2017 Mexico Sentiment is on the Mend as U.S. Threats are Easing, for Now (Publication Centre)

Sentiment has been improving gradually in Mexico in recent weeks, reversing some of the severe deterioration immediately after the U.S. presidential election. Year-to-date, the MXN has risen 10.3% against the USD and the stock market is up by almost 8%. We think that less protectionist U.S. trade policy rhetoric than expected immediately after the election explains the turnaround.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

7 July 2017 Andean Economies Improving as First-Half Shocks Fade (Publication Centre)

The Imacec data released on Wednesday provided further evidence that the Chilean economy grew at a decent pace in the second quarter, following a very sluggish first quarter.

4 March 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Softening Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate inched up to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

6 October 2017 The Mining Recovery is Driving Chile's Rebound, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Chile's growth dynamics were robust in August, according to the latest data. Production rose and consumption remained strong during most of Q3. Indeed, industrial output increased 5.1% year-over- year, up from an already strong 3.1% increase in July, and contrasting sharply with the 2% fall in Q2.

4 December 2018 The China-U.S Trade Truce Eases Downside Risks for Chile and Peru (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies enjoyed a good start to the week, following the agreement between the U.S. and China to pause the trade war.

21 November 2017 Chile's Economy Rebounded in Q3, but Politics Will Dominate the News (Publication Centre)

Incoming data confirm our view that the Chilean economy to rebound steadily in the second half of the year, with real GDP increasing 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, after a relatively modest 0.9% increase in Q2 and a meagre 0.1% in Q1.

23 May 2019 Japanese Trade is Struggling, even Without Tariff Rises (Publication Centre)

Japanese policymakers will have been scouring yesterday's data for signs that the trade situation is improving.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

3 April 2017 Brazil's Labour Market is Still Poor, but Likely Will Stabilize Soon (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Friday underscored our view that bolder rate cuts in Brazil are looming. The BCB's latest BCB's inflation report, released on Thursday, showed that policymakers now see conditions in place to increase the pace of easing "moderately" .

15 December 2016 Congress, Growth and Inflation Will Determine What the Fed Does Next (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unanimous vote for a 25bp rate hike was overshadowed by the bump up in the dotplot for next year, with three hikes now expected, rather than the two anticipated in the September forecast. Chair Yellen argued the uptick in the rate forecasts was "tiny", but acknowledged that some participants moved their forecasts partly on the basis that fiscal policy is likely to be eased by the new Congress.

13 September 2018 A Leadership Contest Might be Imminent, but Mrs. May Won't Lose (Publication Centre)

Sterling held on to its recent gains yesterday despite mounting speculation that Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are plotting a leadership challenge.

2 January 2019 A Further Slowdown in GDP Growth Is Imminent (Publication Centre)

The economy's fragility was underlined by the Q3 national accounts, released just before the Christmas break.

13 December 2017 Surging Energy Prices Won't Derail the Imminent Drop in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in CPI inflation to 3.1% in November--its highest rate since March 2012-- from 3.0% in October, shouldn't alarm the MPC at this week's meeting.

8 May 2018 Don't Expect the MPC to Signal an Imminent Rate Hike Clearly this Week (Publication Centre)

With little reason to doubt that interest rates will remain at 0.50% on Thursday, focus has turned to what signal the MPC will give about future policy, via its economic forecasts and commentary.

06 October. 2016 Steady Growth in the Services Sector Undermines Rate Cut Case (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS services survey added to the evidence indicating that GDP growth softened, rather than fell off a cliff, in the third quarter. The activity index edged down only to 52.6, from 52.9 in August.

8 August 2018 July Brought Neither Feast Nor Famine for Retailers (Publication Centre)

The run-up to the release of the official retail sales figures has become so congested with other indicators, following alterations by the ONS to its publication schedule, that we now have to preview the data earlier than usual.

6 March 2018 Easing Services Price Pressures Undermine the Rate Hike Case (Publication Centre)

The case for the MPC to hold back from raising interest rates in May remains strong, despite the improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in February.

6 July 2017 Sluggish Growth and Slowing Price Rises Undermine Rate Hike Case (Publication Centre)

Investors have stuck to their view that interest rates are just as likely to rise this year as not, despite the soft round of PMIs released this week.

05 Feb. 2016 Bonds Signal an Imminent EZ Recession, but Don't Take the Bait (Publication Centre)

Strong real M1 growth suggests the cyclical recovery is in good shape. But recent economic data indicate GDP growth slowed in Q4, and survey evidence deteriorated in January. This slightly downbeat message, however, is a far cry from the horror story told by financial markets. The recent collapse in stock-to-bond returns extends the decline which began in Q2 last year, signalling the Eurozone is on the brink of recession.

19 April 2018 Rapidly Falling CPI Inflation is Likely to Prompt a Rethink at the Bank (Publication Centre)

The rapid fall in CPI inflation over the last two months challenges the MPC's view that sterling's 2016 depreciation will keep inflation above the 2% target for the next three years, and greatly undermines the case for another interest rate increase in May.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

16 Nov. 2015 Is Banxico Still Willing to Hike Just After the Fed in December? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's domestic conditions don't warrant an imminent rate hike in the near term. Headline inflation continues to fall, reaching an all-time low of 2.5% in October. It should remain below 3% in the coming months. And core prices remain wellbehaved, increasing at a modest pace, signalling very little pass-through of the MXN's depreciation. Economic activity gained some momentum in Q3-- this will be confirmed on Friday's GDP report--but demand pressures on inflation are absent and the output gap is still ample. Under these conditions, policymakers should not be in a rush to hike, but they have signalled once again that they will act immediately after the Fed.

20 February 2018 New Mortgage Rates Will Rise Soon When Term Funding Scheme Ends (Publication Centre)

The imminent boost to lending rates from the shut- down of the Term Funding Scheme at the end of this month is widely under-appreciated.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

22 March 2017 Improving Fiscal Picture in the South, but Politics Are Key (Publication Centre)

Growth in South America disappointed last year, but prospects are gradually improving on the back of rising commodity prices and the global manufacturing rebound. These factors will help to ease the region's external and fiscal vulnerabilities, particularly over the second half of the year. On the domestic front, though, the first quarter has proved challenging for some countries, hit by temporary supply factors such as a mine strikes, floods, and wildfires.

8 April 2019 Payroll Gains set to be Close to 200K in Q2 Labor Market Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

The return to normal in the March payroll numbers, with a 196K headline increase, is another nail in the coffin of the "imminent recession" theory.

22 July. 2016 Emerging Divisions on the MPC Signal Only Modest August Easing (Publication Centre)

Soon after last week's vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.50%, the MPC's doves were quick to assert that monetary easing is still imminent. A speech by Andy Haldane, published on July 15, called for "... a package of mutually complementary monetary policy easing measures" that should be "delivered promptly and muscularly". Meanwhile, Gertjan Vlieghe, who was alone in voting for a rate cut in July, wrote in The Financial Times last week that he also favours "a package of additional measures" in August.

16 March 2017 Slowing Wage Gains Support the MPC's Loose Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data significantly bolster the consensus view on the MPC that interest rates do not need to rise this year to counter the imminent burst of inflation. Granted, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in January--its lowest rate since August 1975--from 4.8% in December, defying the consensus forecast for no-change.

15 Aug 2019 Rising Domestically-Generated Inflation is Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The unexpected rise in CPI inflation to 2.1% in July--well above the Bank of England's 1.8% forecast and the 1.9% consensus--from 2.0% in June undermines the case for expecting the MPC to cut Bank Rate, in the event that a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

10 Dec. 2015 Does the Case for Permanently Much Lower Real Rates Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

Larry Summers stirred the pot yet again with an article in the FT at the weekend, arguing that because the Fed typically eases by more than 300bp to pull the economy out of recession, "the chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates enough to offset it". This follows from his view that the neutral level of real short rates has fallen so far that "the odds are the Fed will not be able to raise rates 100 basis points a year without threatening to undermine recovery".

10 August. 2016 Trade Data Show Depreciations Take Time to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

June's trade figures yesterday highlighted that it takes more than just a few months for exchange rate depreciations to boost GDP growth. The trade-weighted sterling index dropped by 9% between November and June as the risk of Brexit loomed large and the prospect of imminent increases in interest rates receded.

01 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Likely to Nudge Markets to Expect an Earlier Hike (Publication Centre)

With financial markets still turbulent and the Governor stating only two weeks ago that economic conditions do not yet justify a rate hike, the Inflation Report on Thursday will not signal imminent action. Nonetheless, higher medium-term forecasts for inflation are likely to imply that the Committee still envisions raising interest rates this year.

10 October 2018 Hurricane Michael Means Another "Soft" Payroll Number (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of a hefty rebound in payrolls in October, following the hurricane-hit September number, have been dashed by the imminent landfall of Hurricane Michael in Florida panhandle.

12 July 2018 Brexit Risk is Starting to Take a Heavy Toll on Exports (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth might be boosted soon by a pick-up in net exports continue to be undermined by the latest data.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

13 July. 2015 Dull Yellen Testimony Given Greek Story - then Back to Labor Data? (Publication Centre)

We expect Greece to do what it needs to do by Wednesday to secure its third bailout, and, judging by her speech in Cleveland last Friday, so does the Fed Chair. It's always risky to assume blithely that European politicians will do the right thing in the end, and they seem absolutely determined to humiliate Greece before writing the checks, but a completed deal is the most likely outcome.

13 Apr. 2016 Easter Effect Will Play Tricks With Economic Data in Coming Months (Publication Centre)

The "timing of Easter" will feature prominently in our reports over the coming weeks, starting with yesterday's German inflation data. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in March, from 0.0% in February, in line with the initial estimate.

23 Mar. 2016 Rousseff's Government is on the Ropes - Fiscal Progress Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Political turmoil in Brazil continues to undermine President Dilma Rousseff's leverage over the economy. On Friday, the Lower House of Congress voted to start impeachment proceeding against Ms. Rousseff. She has until early April to present her defense against charges that she doctored government accounts and used graft proceeds to fund the 2014 electoral campaign.

22 Mar. Housing Market Revival Reflects More than Stamp Duty Increase (Publication Centre)

The recent revival in housing market activity reflects more than just a temporary boost provided by imminent tax changes. The current momentum in market activity and lending likely will fade later this year, but we think this will have more to do with looming interest rate rises than a lull in activity caused by a shift in the timing of home purchases.

4 Apr. Britain is Living Beyond its Means, Once Again (Publication Centre)

The clear message from the fourth quarter's national accounts, released last week, is that the economic recovery rests on unsustainable foundations. The U.K. has returned to bad habits and is financing expenditure today by borrowing. As this undermines future spending, it is only a matter of time before the U.K.'s recovery loses steam.

23 Oct. 2015 Dovish Mr. Draghi All But Promises More QE in December (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi gave one of his most dovish performances to date yesterday. The central bank kept its main interest rates and the pace of QE unchanged, but reiterated that risks to growth and inflation are tilted to the downside. The president noted further that the existing policies will be "reexamined" in December in light of updated staff projections. It is difficult to see how the downbeat assessment on the economy will change materially from now until December, indicating that further stimulus is likely.

3 May 2019 The MPC Signals that Rate Hikes are Coming, Though Not Just Yet (Publication Centre)

The MPC restated its commitment to an "ongoing tightening of monetary policy" yesterday, but provided no new guidance to suggest that the next hike is imminent.

5 March 2018 Whatever the Problem is, Tariffs aren't the Answer (Publication Centre)

The apparently imminent imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum does not per se constitute a serious macroeconomic shock.

7 Apr. 2015 The noose tightens on Greece and its creditors as default looms (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors will come to a head in the next few weeks as the country faces imminent risk of running out of money. Following a meeting with the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, on Sunday Greek finance minister Faroufakis assured investors that the country intends to make a scheduled €450M payment to the fund on Thursday.

9 June. 2016 Eurozone Credit Markets Cheer as ECB Private QE Begins (Publication Centre)

The ECB's corporate bond purchase program began yesterday with purchases concentrated in utilities and telecoms, according to media sources. This is consistent with the structure of the market, and the fact that bond issues by firms in these sectors are the largest and most liquid. But debt issued by consumer staples firms likely also featured prominently.

7 November 2018 Should a 2019 General Election be the Base Case? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent is rarely out of the news. At present, betting markets see about a 35% chance of another election in 2019, broadly the same chance as one in 2022, when it is currently scheduled to be held.

3 July 2017 Three Jobs Reports in Nine Weeks set to Shift Market Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The next nine weeks bring three jobs reports, which will determine whether the Fed hikes again in September, as we expect, and will also help shape market expectations for December and beyond.

31 May. 2016 Banxico is Managing the Peso, Not the Business Cycle, For Now (Publication Centre)

Banxico's quarterly inflation report, released last week, underscored concerns over growth as well as the weakness of the MXN and the risks p osed by the Fed's imminent tightening. Policymakers downgraded Mexico's GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.3-to-3.3% year-over-year, from 2.5-to-3.5%. Weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing activity is behind the downshift.

26 March 2018 Favourable Inflation Outlook in Brazil and Mexico, but Politics is a Risk (Publication Centre)

In a week of important global events, local factors remained in the spotlight in Brazil, with a more benign data flow and the central bank statement reducing the likelihood of an imminent end to the easing cycle.

3 August 2017 Will the MPC Call Time on the Term Funding Scheme? (Publication Centre)

We see only a small risk today of the MPC raising interest rates or sending a strong signal that a hike is imminent, for the reasons we set out in our preview of the meeting. The MPC, however, also must decide today whether to wind up the Term Funding Scheme-- TFS--launched a year ago as part of its post-Brexit stimulus measures.

24 Mar. 2015 Risks are Rising Rapidly in Greece, but Grexit Will Likely be Avoided (Publication Centre)

In a letter earlier this month, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras warned German chancellor Angela Merkel that failure to disburse additional bailout funds would lead to an imminent cash crunch. Last week's meeting with EU leaders and the ECB yielded no progress, intensifying the risk that Greece will literally run out of money within weeks.

26 March 2019 Is a Snap General Election Inevitable? (Publication Centre)

Speculation that another general election is imminent has intensified in recent weeks.

25 Jan. 2016 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, Despite Disappointing Dip (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data indicate a slow start to the first quarter for the Eurozone economy. The composite index fell to 53.5 in January from 54.3 in December, due to weakness in both services and manufacturing. The correlation between month-to-month changes in the PMI and MSCI EU ex-UK is a decent 0.4, and we can't rule out the ide a that the horrible equity market performance has dented sentiment. The sudden swoon in markets, however, has also led to fears of an imminent recession. But it would be a major overreaction to extrapolate three weeks' worth of price action in equities to the real economy.

27 May. Q1 GDP Just the Beginning of a Prolonged Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery has lost momentum and revealed that growth would have ground to a halt without consumers. GDP growth likely will slow further in Q2, as Brexit risk undermines business investment.

28 March 2017 Full-Scale Tax Reform Likely is Dead (Publication Centre)

The failure of House Republicans to support Speaker Ryan's healthcare bill has laid bare the splits within the Republican party. The fissures weren't hard to see even before last week's debacle but the equity market has appeared determined since November to believe that all the earnings-friendly elements of Mr. Trump's and Mr. Ryan's agendas would be implemented with the minimum of fuss.

28 June. 2016 Will Higher Inflation Keep Further Monetary Easing at Bay? (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor indicated yesterday that the current fiscal plans--which set out a 1% of GDP reduction in the structural budget deficit this year--will remain in place until a new Prime Minister is chosen by September 2. So for now, the burden of leaning against the imminent downturn is on the MPC's shoulders.

Bloomberg - Macron Suspends Planned Fuel-Tax Hike as Protests Rage (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, examines the French government's move to suspend a planned fuel-tax hike that sparked three weeks of protests.

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

Business Insider - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

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