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126 matches for " m2":
Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Japan's M2 growth stabilises but the near three year downtrend leaves GDP growth looking exposed
Japan's machine tool orders remain nasty. Japan's M2 growth shows first signs of looming tax hike.
Japan's M2 growth is going nowhere fast. Japanese machine tool orders suggest some stabilisation in global activity.
China's PPI back in deflation until fall. China's February CPI inflation was a battle between food and services. M2 growth in Japan was due a further uptick, given the perkier trends at the margin. Favourable base effects flattered Japanese machine tool orders in February.
June moderation confirms May nadir in Chinese PPI deflation. Food price disinflation in China stalls in June. No signs of Japan's M2 growth spike tapering anytime soon. The surprise bounce in Japanese core machine orders was fairly narrow. Machine tool orders in Japan end Q2 on an encouraging note.
China's money and credit numbers for April were a mixed bag. M2 growth merely inched down, to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.6% in March, keeping its gradual uptrend intact.
The RMB's run is slowing China's exit from PPI deflation. Pork prices are starting to cool, again, pulling down Chinese CPI inflation. M2 growth in Japan remains punchy, setting the stage for a Q3 bounce. Machine tool orders in Japan are finally turning the corner after a long-running slump. Like last year, don't read too much into the August surprise in Korea's jobs data.
CPI inflation in China is nearing a peak, with pork prices starting to stabilise. November's data confirm that PPI deflation in China has bottomed out. Japan's M2 growth looks exposed to a downward revision. Japan's machine tool orders refuse to turn.
Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.
State of emergency destroyed Japanese overtime pay in April. M2 growth in Japan hasn't been this strong since the early 90s. No relief for Japanese tool orders in May, despite the phased withdrawal of the emergency declaration.
China's M2 growth stabilised in November, at 8.0% year-over-year, matching the October rate.
Chinese monetary conditions show signs of a temporary stabilisation. M2 growth picked up to 9.1% year-over-year in November from 8.8% in October, though largely as a correction for understated growth in recent months.
China's money data, out last week, bode ill for real GDP growth in the second half. June M2 growth dipped to 9.4% year-over-year from 9.6% in May and 10.5% in April.
China's money and credit numbers were once again unspectacular in August. M2 growth edged up to 8.2% year-over-year, from 8.1% in July.
China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.
Japanese M2 growth slowed sharply in December, to 3.6% year-over-year, from 4.0% in November, with M3 growth weakening similarly. It is tempting to ask if the BoJ's stealth taper finally is damaging broad money growth.
Chinese M2 growth was stable at 8.3% year- over-year in May, despite favorable base effects.
China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July
GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.
The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.
The BoJ kept its main policy settings unchanged yesterday, in another 7-to-2 split.
The Fed has given itself and markets clear guidance on the minimum requirements for a rate hike-- maximum employment, and inflation at 2% and on track "moderately" to exceed that pace "for some time"--but has offered no clues at all on the drivers of its other key policy tool, namely, the pace of asset purchases.
The PBoC left its interest rate corridor, including the Medium-term Lending Facility rate, unchanged last Friday, but published the reformed Loan Prime Rate modestly lower, at 4.20% in September, down from 4.25% in August.
Korea's GDP report for the second quarter was a huge let-down.
If Japan's flash PMIs for March are a sign of things to come, then the government really should get moving on fiscal stimulus.
Last month, the ECB set the scene for the majority of its key policy decisions over the next 12 months.
China's 2018 property market boomlet let out more air last month.
If Congress passes another Covid relief bill early next month, as we fully expect, it will have to be financed quickly via increased debt issuance.
We have been asked recently why we rarely talk about the signal from the U.S. money supply numbers, in contrast to the emphasis we give to real M1 growth in our forecasts for economic growth in both the Eurozone and China.
We've suspected that China's GDP targeting system was on its last legs for some time now.
Fed Chair Powell broke no new ground in his Senate Testimony alongside--virtually--Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday, maintaining the cautious tone of his recent public statements.
Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.
We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last year.
Chinese prices largely moved in line with our expectations in September, according to yesterday's data.
China's monetary and credit data--released yesterday, two days behind schedule--suggest that monetary conditions are loosening at the margin, while credit conditions have remained stable, but easier than in the first half.
Downward revisions to Japan's Q4 real GDP growth, published on Wednesday, lead us to revisit our main worry over the durability of the recovery; namely, that monetary conditions appear to be signalling a slowdown.
The PBoC probably will start soon to run modestly easier monetary policy, but conditions have been tightening consistently for over a year, so a slowdown in economic growth likely is already locked in.
Korea's unemployment rate fell for a second straight month in October, inching down to 3.9%, from 4.0% in September.
The sound of silence in Chinese interest rates continued to reverberate this month.
Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.
The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.
We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the country and, hence, a limited late spring/summer rebound in the economy.
Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the virus becoming a real consideration only in the last third.
China is facing a nasty mix of spiking CPI inflation and ongoing PPI deflation.
The trade war with the U.S. has taken its toll on the RMB.
The stock of bank lending to businesses is on course to fall in June, after a modest increase in May and huge jumps in March and April.
India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.
Our chief economist, Ian Shepherdson, set out our initial thoughts on the rising tensions between U.S. and Iran here.
A growing number of economists have marked down their forecasts for Chinese growth next year to below the critical 6% year-over-year rate, required to ensure that the authorities meet their implicit medium- term growth targets.
The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.
China was in lockdown ahead of the 70th Anniversary last week, as is typical around important political events.
This will be as good as it gets for Japanese PPI
Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.
The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.
Resistance is futile.
In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.
The PBoC finally moved yesterday, cutting its one-year MLF rate by 5bp to 3.25%, whilst replacing around RMB 400B of maturing loans.
The main story to emerge from China's Economic Work Report is the extent of tax cuts, which on our calculations will leave a large funding hole.
We have focussed on the role of the trade war in depressing U.S. stock prices in recent months, arguing that the concomitant uncertainty, disruptions to supply chains, increases in input costs and, more recently, the drop in Chinese demand for U.S. imports, are the key factor driving investors to the exits.
The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.
Money supply growth in the Eurozone quickened last month, by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% year- over-year, but the details were less upbeat.
Korea's government is mulling a further tightening of borrowing rules to mitigate the risks of an overheated property market.
China's Q2 real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1, which already matched the trough in the financial crisis.
We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.
We set out the reasoning behind the big upward revision to our payroll forecast yesterday, in the wake of the much better-than-expected ADP report.
The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.
Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.
To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.
Japan's monetary base growth slowed to just 4.6% year-over-year in February, from 4.7% in January, well below the 17% rate needed to keep the base expanding at a pace consistent with the BoJ's JGB quantity target.
Money supply data in the EZ continue to suggest that headline GDP growth will slow soon.
Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.
India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.
China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.
In previous Monitors--see here--we've suggested that, thanks to the coronavirus, China simply will lose some of the spending that would have gone on during the holiday this year.
China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.
We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.
The Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.50% yesterday, but downgraded its inflation forecast for 2018 to 1.6% from 1.7%
Japan's tertiary index fell further in December,by 0.3% month-on-month, after the downwardly- revised 0.4% drop in November.
China's March money and credit data, published last Friday, showed that conditions continue to tighten, posing a threat to GDP growth this year.
We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.
GDP growth in Japan surprised to the upside in the second quarter, although the preliminary headline arguably flattered the economy's actual performance.
Business investment in Japan took a nasty hit in the third quarter.
China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.
The year-long surge in CPI inflation in China will soon end.
China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data
Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.
The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.
We think Japanese monetary policy easing essentially is tapped out, both theoretically and by political constraints.
Private consumption in Japan will take time to recover, even if some semblance of normality returns from this month.
Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.
The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.
The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.
China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.
China's GDP report for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show that economic growth has stabilised, on the surface.
Chinese monetary conditions remain tight. Systemic tightening through higher interest rates last year is playing a role, but intensified and ever- more public regulatory enforcement is becoming the primary driver of tightening credit conditions for businesses.
China's trade surplus jumped to a six-month high of $46.8B in December, from $37.6B in November, on the back of a strong increase in exports.
China's economic recovery over the next twelve months remains secure, barring another major outbreak of Covid-19 domestically, or another synchronised lockdown globally.
Japan's second wave of Covid-19 is in its early phase, though the virus appears to be spreading rapidly.
Chinese monetary conditions have tightened sharply in the past year. Conditions have stabilised in recent months but Fed policy normalisation implies the increase in the money stock should slow again in 2018.
China's import growth in dollar terms slowed sharply to 4.5% year-over-year in December from 17.7% in November, significantly below the consensus forecast.
Japan's GDP likely dropped by 1.1% quarter- on-quarter in the first quarter, even from the favourable Q4 base, when it fell by 1.8%.
China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.
China's money and credit data released last Friday reaffirm our impression that the tightening has gone too far.
The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.
China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.
Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.
Credit to the Chinese authorities for sticking it out with the marginal approach to easing for so long... at least two quarters.
PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.
China's monetary conditions remain tight, pointing to a substantial downtrend in GDP growth this year and next.
Japan's Ministry of Finance yesterday admitted falsifying documents submitted to the country's parliament during a corruption probe last year.
The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.
PPI inflation has finally started to soften, after having increased steadily from 2.0% in April, and holding steady at 3.0% in Q3.
China's money data continued to improve in April, bolstering the economy's recovery prospects.
Korean credit markets have begun tentatively to recover after the rise in global interest rates at the end of last year.
Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.
Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.
We're doing a wrap-up of the data that were released last week while we were away, and the Chinese numbers were both a hit and a miss.
Data released earlier this week show that Japan's current account surplus continued its downtrend in October, falling to ¥1,404B, on our seasonal adjustment, from ¥1,494B in September.
Japanese M2 growth increased trivially in June to 3.9% year-on-year from 3.8% in May, significantly higher than the 3.2% rate in August, before the BoJ began targeting the yield curve.
China's M2 growth surprised on the upside in July, rising to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.0% in June.
Japan's Q2 GDP growth was not all it's cracked up to be. M2 growth in Japan inched up in July, but trends at the margin have rolled over. China's July inflation uptick shows that the swine flu outbreak is nowhere near under control. China officially enters PPI deflation... but it shouldn't last beyond Q3.
BoJ programmes are propping up M2 growth; Japan's machine tool orders tumble will get worse before better
Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.
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