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85 matches for " m1 growth":

28 July. 2016 EZ M1 Growth Slips Further, Signalling Lower Growth in 2017 (Publication Centre)

The headline in yesterday's EZ money supply report gave the illusion that monetary conditions are stable, but the details tell a different story. M3 growth accelerated marginally to 5.0% year-over-year in June, from 4.9%, but momentum in narrow money fell further. M1 growth slowed to 8.5% year-over-year, from 9.0% in May due to a fall in overnight deposits and currency in circulation.

3 January 2017 The Eurozone in 2017: Higher Inflation and Slower M1 Growth? (Publication Centre)

A bullish EZ money supply report was the key highlight while we were away over the holidays. M3 growth in the euro area accelerated to 4.8% year-over-year in November from 4.4% in October.

21 May 2019 The Money Supply is a Poor Guide to U.S. Growth it's Different in Europe (Publication Centre)

We have been asked recently why we rarely talk about the signal from the U.S. money supply numbers, in contrast to the emphasis we give to real M1 growth in our forecasts for economic growth in both the Eurozone and China.

19 December 2018 New Thinking on PBoC Rates Balance Tipping Toward a Cut (Publication Centre)

A PBoC rate cut is looking increasingly likely. Policy is already on the loosest setting possible without cutting rates, but the Bank has little to show for its marginal approach to easing, with M1 growth still languishing.

16 August 2017 China's Credit Conditions Ease, but GDP Slowdown is set to Continue (Publication Centre)

Chinese M1 growth has slowed sharply in the past year from the 25% rates prevailing in the first half of last year. Growth appeared to rebound in July to 15.3% year-over-year, from 15.0% in June. But the rebound looks erratic. Instead, growth has probably slowed slightly less sharply in 2017 than the official data suggest, but the downtrend continues.

12 March 2019 The Data are Choppy, but Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy loosening over the last year implies that China's M1 growth already should be picking up.

28 July. 2015 Unassailable Bullish Message from M1 Growth in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Money supply data continue to send a bullish message on the euro area economy. Broad money growth was unchanged at 5.0% year-over-year in June, but M1 growth surged to 11.8%, from 11.2% in May. Combined with low inflation, real M1--the best leading indicator in the Eurozone--indicates a surge in GDP growth on par with previous record business cycle upturns in 1999, 2005-06 and 2009-10.

24 July 2017 Not Much Upside for Eurozone Equities in the Rest of 2017 (Publication Centre)

The tailwinds that have propelled Eurozone equities higher since the middle of last year remain place, in principle. In the economy, political uncertainty in the euro area has turned into an opportunity for further integration and reforms, and cyclical momentum in has picked up. And closer to the ground, fundamentals also have improved.

23 July 2019 The ECB Will Prepare Markets for a Deposit Rate Cut This Week (Publication Centre)

We're breaking protocol this week by delivering our preview for Thursday's ECB meeting in today's Monitor.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

23 February 2018 IFO and INSEE Business Surveys Compound February Misery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national surveys in the EZ confirmed the downbeat message from the PMIs and consumer sentiment data earlier this week.

28 September 2018 Trend in EZ Real M1 Indicates that Markets are Too Optimistic on Growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, it appears that politicians in Italy have agreed on a 2019 budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP.

29 August 2018 Focus on Slowing Real M1, not the Upbeat Loan Data, in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In recent Monitors--see here and here--we have made a case for decent growth in the EZ's largest economies in the second half of the year, though we remain confident that full-year growth will be a good deal slower, about 2.0%, than the 2.5% in 2017.

28 February 2019 A Dovish Money Supply Report Ahead of the March ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's January EZ money supply data offered support for investors betting on a further dovish shift by the ECB at next month's meeting.

28 February 2017 The Eurozone Business Cycle Upturn is Resilient and Robust (Publication Centre)

Money supply dynamics in the Eurozone continue to signal a solid outlook for the economy. Headline M3 growth eased marginally to 4.9% year-over-year in January, from 5.0% in December; the dip was due to slowing narrow money growth, falling to 8.4% from 8.8% the month before. The details of the M1 data, however, showed that the headline chiefly was hit by slowing growth in deposits by insurance and pension funds.

28 Apr. 2016 Eurozone Real Narrow Money Growth Continues to Slow (Publication Centre)

Monetary dynamics in the Eurozone were virtually unchanged last month. M3 growth rose trivially to 5.0% year-over-year in March from a revised 4.9% in February. It was lifted by stronger growth in medium-term deposits and issuance of short-term debt.

20 October 2017 The Spanish Economy is Resilient to the Chaos in Catalonia, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been punching above its weight in the current business cycle. Real GDP growth has trended at about 0.8% quarter-on-quarter since 2015, far outpacing the other major EZ economies.

2 January 2019 The EZ Economy is Flirting With Recession at the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

We suspect that euro area investors have one question on their mind as we step into 2019.

2 August. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Was Resilient in July, But Only Thanks to Germany (Publication Centre)

Industrial sector activity in the euro area was broadly stable at the beginning of the third quarter, despite the headline dip in the July manufacturing PMI. The Eurozone index fell to 52.0 in July, from 52.8 in June, but if it holds at this level it will be unchanged in Q3 compared with the second quarter.

19 September 2017 China's Property Market Cools, Downtrend now Established (Publication Centre)

China's property market continued to slow in August, with prices rising by just 0.2% month-on- month seasonally adjusted, half the July pace.

2 July 2019 More Misery in EZ Manufacturing, but M1 Looks Solid Enough (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in the Eurozone were soft.

20 February 2019 China's Current Account Surplus is Stabilising, but at a Very Low Level (Publication Centre)

China's current account surplus grew further in the final quarter of 2018, more than doubling to $54.6B, from $23.3B in Q3.

21 March 2019 Upside Risks to our China 2019 GDP Growth Forecast (Publication Centre)

For countries with developed non-banking funding channels, narrow money isn't necessarily a good predictor of GDP growth.

29 March 2019 German Core Inflation Slumped in March, but it will Rebound in April (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday revealed that headline inflation in Germany was unchanged in March at 1.5%, thanks mainly to higher energy inflation, which offset a dip in food inflation.

20 June 2017 EZ Construction Upturn Signals Upside Risks to GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

We continue to see signs of a strengthening upturn in Eurozone construction. Output in construction rose 0.3% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 3.2%, from an upwardly revised 3.8% in March.

22 December 2017 Optimism in the French Corporate Sector is High and Broad-Based (Publication Centre)

Sentiment in the French business sector ended this year on a high. The headline manufacturing index fell slightly to 112 in December, from an upwardly-revised 113 in November, but the aggregate sentiment gauge edged higher to a new cycle high of 112.

30 August 2017 The Eurozone's Cyclical Recovery is Stable, Not Accelerating (Publication Centre)

While we were enjoying a rare sunny bank holiday in the U.K., data showed that Eurozone money supply growth slowed at the start of Q3. Broad money growth--M3--fell to a 10-month low of 4.5% year-over- year in July, from 5.0% in August.

4 January 2019 Poor End to 2018 Underscores the Hastiness of the Bank of Korea Hike (Publication Centre)

Korean hard data for December, so far, leave the door ajar for the possibility that the Bank of Korea will roll back its November hike sooner than we expect.

4 February 2019 Unboxing--and Making Sense--of the Collapse in China's Caixin PMI (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.

4 December 2018 China and U.S. Agree a Truce Exports Still Face Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Following the much-anticipated meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump over the weekend, the U.S. will now leave existing tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods at 10%, rather than increasing the rate to 25% in January, as previously slated.

4 March 2019 No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Japan's Softening Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate inched up to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

4 Nov. 2015 Today's PMIs Will Send a Signal o f a Continuing Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Final October PMI data today will confirm the Eurozone's recovery remains on track. We think the composite PMI rose to 54.0 from 53.6 in September, in line with the consensus and initial estimate. Data on Monday showed that manufacturing performed better than expected in October, and the composite index likely will enjoy a further boost from solid services. The PMIs currently point to a trend in GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the strongest performance since the last recession.

9 Aug 2019 China's Trade Balance has Just About Peaked, For Now (Publication Centre)

China's trade numbers for July surprised to the upside, with both exports and imports faring better than consensus forecasts in year-over-year terms.

8 May 2019 Chile's Economy Slowed in Q1, but Expect a Modest Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile slowed in Q1, despite a relatively strong end to the quarter, and the chances of an accelerating recovery remains disappointingly low, due to both global and domestic headwinds.

6 March 2019 The EZ PMIs Showed Further Signs of Resilience in February (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data for February confirmed the story from the advance reports.

31 October 2017 EZ GDP Growth Slowed in Q3, but Trend is Steady at About 2% (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data kicked off the release of Eurozone Q3 growth numbers with a robust Spanish headline. Real GDP in Spain rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, slowing slightly from 0.9% in Q2, and le aving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 3.1%.

31 May 2018 Will Chinese Authorities Allow Developer Defaults? Probably (Publication Centre)

Defaults by Chinese companies have been on the rise lately. Most recently, China Energy, an oil and gas producer with $1.8B of offshore notes outstanding, missed a bond payment earlier this week. We've highlighted the likelihood of a rise in defaults this year, for three main reasons.

3 May. 2016 Will GDP Growth in the Eurozone Accelerate This Year? (Publication Centre)

Last week's advance EZ GDP data for the first quarter suggest the economy shrugged off the volatility in financial markets. Eurostat's first estimate indicates that real GDP in the euro area rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from 0.3% in Q4, and above the consensus, 0.4%.

3 January 2018 See no Evil, Hear no Evil in Eurozone Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector finished 2017 on a strong note. The headline PMI increased to a cyclical high of 60.6 in December, from 60.1 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

29 November 2018 The Jump in EZ Money Growth is Deceptive M1 was Unchanged (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone quickened last month, by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% year- over-year, but the details were less upbeat.

18 September 2018 Don't Underestimate the Importance of China's Rolling Ball of Money (Publication Centre)

China's residential property market surprised again in August, with prices popping by 1.5% month- on-month, faster than the 1.2% rise in July, and the biggest increase since the 2016 boomlet.

30 January 2017 Real M1 Indicates a Solid Start to 2017, but What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The business cycle upturn in the Eurozone likely will remain resilient in the first half of 2017. Friday's money supply data showed that headline M3 growth increased to 5.0% in December, from 4.9% in November.

30 October 2018 Are Chinese Pro ts Normalising But the Headwinds Remain (Publication Centre)

Chinese headline industrial profits data show that growth slowed to just 4.1% year-over-year in September, from 9.2% in August.

30 May 2018 New Elections Loom in Italy as Bond Markets Panic (Publication Centre)

Price action in Italian bonds went from hairy to scary yesterday as two-year yields jumped to just under 3.0%.

29 May 2019 Real M1 in is Now Telling a More Positive Story on EZ GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further at the start of Q2.

16 October 2018 China's GDP Growth Likely Weaker than Friday's Numbers will Show (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth is absurdly stable, but the risks in Q3 are tilted to the downside.

14 June 2018 Chinese Monetary Conditions Point to Slowing Growth into Next Year (Publication Centre)

Chinese M2 growth was stable at 8.3% year- over-year in May, despite favorable base effects.

18 October 2018 China's Monetary Transmission Mechanism Working...with Wrinkles (Publication Centre)

China's monetary and credit data--released yesterday, two days behind schedule--suggest that monetary conditions are loosening at the margin, while credit conditions have remained stable, but easier than in the first half.

14 June 2019 Wage Growth in the Eurozone Remains Strong... Just Sayin' (Publication Centre)

Last week's evidence of still-strong wage growth in the EZ at the start of the year almost surely has gone unnoticed as markets focus on the prospect of rate cuts, not to mention more QE, by the ECB.

14 May 2018 China's M1 Points to a Substantial GDP Growth Downtrend (Publication Centre)

China's monetary conditions remain tight, pointing to a substantial downtrend in GDP growth this year and next.

14 November 2018 China's Potential H1 Recovery Just Fizzled out... Before it Started (Publication Centre)

Credit to the Chinese authorities for sticking it out with the marginal approach to easing for so long... at least two quarters.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

12 June 2019 Markets Having Cake and Eating it will be Caught out by the BoJ (Publication Centre)

Central bankers globally are full of market- appeasing but conditional statements.

10 July 2019 The BoJ Faces a Slew of Very Nasty Data, it Still won't Ease (Publication Centre)

We think Japanese monetary policy easing essentially is tapped out, both theoretically and by political constraints.

1 May 2018 Is the EZ Economy Slowing Faster Than Markets Expect? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were alarmingly poor.

11 June 2019 A Sino-U.S. Deal would Curb China's Trade Surplus...But Only Temporarily (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus bounced back strongly in May, rising to $40.1B on our adjustment, from $35.7B previously.

12 April 2018 A Much-Needed Reality Check on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Today's industrial production data in the Eurozone will extend the run of soft headlines at the start of the year.

12 December 2018 China's Monetary Conditions are Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth stabilised in November, at 8.0% year-over-year, matching the October rate.

15 January 2019 China's Trade Data will get Nastier but Expect a V-Shaped Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's December foreign trade numbers were unpleasant, with both exports and imports falling year-over-year, after rising, albeit slowly in November.

13 September 2018 China's Money Headlines Tell an Old Story Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July

16 November. 2016 Strong Growth Outside Germany Saved the Day for the EZ In Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's GDP reports confirmed that growth was stable at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the Eurozone, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.5%. Rebounding growth outside Germany, which has been a main driver of EZ GDP growth in this cycle, was the key story.

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.

17 October 2018 China's Rising CPI Inflation is no Obstacle to Easier Policy (Publication Centre)

Chinese prices largely moved in line with our expectations in September, according to yesterday's data.

15 January 2019 The Trade War is not the Only Factor Hurting Stocks, but it's the Biggest (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor of January 10, we argued that the market turmoil in Q4 was largely driven by the U.S.- China trade war, and that a resolution--which we expect by the spring, at the latest--would trigger a substantial easing of financial conditions.

16 July 2018 Chinese Monetary Policy is Easing, but not for Shadow Banking (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data released last Friday reaffirm our impression that the tightening has gone too far.

18 February 2019 Chinese New Year Effects Evident in January's Money and Price Data (Publication Centre)

Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.

15 June. 2016 Will Political Risk and Uncertainty Overwhelm the EZ Economy? (Publication Centre)

Based on key economic indicators, the Eurozone economy is doing splendidly, relative to its performance in recent years. Real GDP has been growing at 1.6%-to-1.7% year-over-year since the first quarter of last year, bank credit has expanded, and the unemployment rate is declining.

16 January 2019 China's Tax Cuts will Help, but the Recovery will Remain Illusive (Publication Centre)

The Chinese authorities have been out in force in the last few days, aiming to reassure markets and the populace that they are ready and able to support the economy, after abysmal trade data on Monday.

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

16 January 2018 Will the BoJ's Stealth Taper Damage Japan's Economic Growth? (Publication Centre)

Japanese M2 growth slowed sharply in December, to 3.6% year-over-year, from 4.0% in November, with M3 growth weakening similarly. It is tempting to ask if the BoJ's stealth taper finally is damaging broad money growth.

27 Feb. 2015 M1 growth is sending a very bullish on the Eurozone economy (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone are sending an increasingly upbeat message on the economy. Yesterday saw a barrage of numbers, but the most startling of them was the continued acceleration in the money supply.

30 Apr. 2015 Real M1 Growth Points to Strengthening Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Survey and money supply data remain consistent with an improving Eurozone economy. Yesterday's EC sentiment index fell to 103.7 in April, from 103.9 in March, due to weakness in France and Germany, but it is consistent with GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

29 November. 2016 Real M1 Growth Tells a Downbeat Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

In recent Monitors, we have highlighted the upturn in Q4 survey data pointing to a strong end of the year for the EZ economy. This story has not changed, but yesterday's money supply data tell a story of downside risks.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

30 August. 2016 Real GDP Growth in the Eurozone is About to Come Down a Notch (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the euro point to a cyclical peak in GDP growth this year. Headline M3 growth fell to 4.8% year-over-year in July, from 5.0% in June, chiefly due to a slowdown in narrow money. M1 growth declined to 8.4%, from 8.7%, as a result of weaker momentum in overnight deposits and currency in circulation.

12 January 2017 Eurozone Equities in 2017: Another Year of Dashed Hopes? (Publication Centre)

A strong December didn't change the story of another year of Eurozone equity underperformance in 2016. The total return of the MSCI EU, ex-UK, last year was a paltry 3.5%, compared to 11.6% and 10.6% for the S&P 500 and MSCI EM respectively. In principle, the conditions are in place for a reversal in this sluggish performance are present. Equities in the euro area do best when excess liquidity--defined as M1 growth less GDP growth and inflation--is rising.

05 Feb. 2016 Bonds Signal an Imminent EZ Recession, but Don't Take the Bait (Publication Centre)

Strong real M1 growth suggests the cyclical recovery is in good shape. But recent economic data indicate GDP growth slowed in Q4, and survey evidence deteriorated in January. This slightly downbeat message, however, is a far cry from the horror story told by financial markets. The recent collapse in stock-to-bond returns extends the decline which began in Q2 last year, signalling the Eurozone is on the brink of recession.

5 Oct. 2015 Bravery will be Rewarded on Eurozone Equities in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Headwinds from global growth fears have weighed on Eurozone equities in recent months, leaving the benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK index with a paltry year-to-date return ex-dividends of 1.7%. We think bravery will be rewarded, though, and see strong performance in the next six months. Equities in Europe do best when excess liquidity --M1 growth in excess of inflation and nominal GDP growth--is high.

9 Sept. 2015 Cyclical Recovery in the Eurozone Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

Final Q2 GDP data yesterday indicate the euro area economy was stronger than initially estimated in the first half of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 0.3, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in Q1. Upward revisions to GDP in Italy were the key driver of the more upbeat growth picture. The revisions mean that annualised Eurozone growth is now estimated at 1.8% in the first six months of the year, up from the previous 1.4%, consistent with the bullish message from real M1 growth and the composite PMI.

04 Jan. 2016 Narrow Money is Growing Solidly, but Likely Peaked in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Data released over the holidays suggest that money supply dynamics in the Eurozone remain solid, but also that growth is no longer accelerating. M3 growth slipped to 5.1% year-over-year in November from 5.3% in October, partly due to a sharp monthly fall in the stock of repurchase agreements. Momentum in narrow money, however, also dipped. M1 growth slowed to 11.2% year-over-year from 11.8% in October, mainly due to a modest fall in overnight deposit growth.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Robust, despite marginal dip in M1 growth.

Asia Datanote: Money and credit, May, China (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence to borrow is lacking, but M1 growth pick-up is a welcome sign.

6 February 2018 No Change in the Bullish Message From the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Real M1 growth is slowing, and financial conditions are beginning to tighten in the Eurozone, but shortleading indicators continue to signal firm momentum in the economy.

Consistently Right

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