Search Results: 21
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: email@example.com.
21 matches for " lodging":
The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.
July's fifth straight undershoot to consensus in the core CPI was very different the previous four. Only one component--lodging away from home--prevented the first 0.2% month-to-month print since February.
The rate of growth of nominal core retail sales substantially outstripped the rate of growth of nominal personal incomes, after tax, in both the second and third quarters.
We aren't much bothered by the one-tenth overshoot in the June core CPI, reported yesterday.
The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.
After four straight sub-consensus core CPI readings, we think the odds now favor reversion to the prior trend, 0.2%, over the next few months.
Policymakers in Brazil and Chile took another big step this week in assuring markets that they won't hesitate to act in the fight against the virus.
Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that EZ inflation is now rebounding slightly.
While we were out, new U.S. Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to fall steadily, and deaths have now peaked.
Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.
It's hard to know what to make of the October CPI data, which recorded hefty increases in healthcare costs and used car prices but a huge drop in hotel room rates, and big decline in apparel prices, and inexplicable weakness in rents.
The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.
The headline April CPI, due today, will be boosted slightly by rising gasoline prices.
The continued modest rate of increase in unit labor costs makes it hard to worry much about the near-term outlook for core inflation.
We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our forecast for tomorrow's payroll numbers in response.
We have no argument with the FOMC's view that the Covid crisis is a disinflationary event, but the run of three straight outright month-to-month declines in the core CPI likely came to an end in June.
The Fed announced no significant policy changes yesterday, but the FOMC reinforced its commitment to maintain "smooth market functioning", by promising to keep its Treasury and mortgage purchases "at least at the current pace".
Today's November retail sales numbers are something of a wild card, given the absence of reliable indicators of the strength of sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, and the difficulty of seasonally adjusting the data for a holiday which falls on a different date this year.
While we were out, most of the action was on the political front, while the economic data mostly were unexciting.
The FOMC did mostly what was expected yesterday, though we were a bit surprised that the single rate hike previously expected for next year has been abandoned.
The run of soft core CPI numbers is over. The average 0.18% increase over the past two months probably is a good indication of the underlying trend -- the prints would have been close to this pace in both months had it not been for wild swings in the lodging component -- and the other one-time oddities of recent months' have faded.
pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research