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10 matches for " initial claims":
We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.
The drop in jobless claims to 3,839K in the week ended April 25, from 4,442K in the previous week, leaves the data still terrible, but markedly less terrible than at the 6,867K peak in late March.
The 810K drop in jobless claims in the week ended April 18 was a bit less than we expected, but the downward trend is clear; claims have fallen by some 2.4M from their peak, in the final week of March.
ADP's report that September private payrolls rose by 135K was slightly better than we expected, but not by enough to change our 150K forecast for tomorrow's official report.
We set out in detail yesterday, here, why we think the official payroll number today will be better than the 129K ADP reading; we look for 160K.
The month-to-month core CPI numbers in March were consistent, in aggregate, with the underlying trend.
The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.
In one line: Initial claims are lower than a month ago, but progress now is painfully slow.
In one line: The rise in initial claims is more likely to be signal than noise, unfortunately.
In one line: Initial claims now barely falling; Housing starts hit by hurricanes; Philly Fed better than headlines.
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