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Tokyo inflation surprised us on Friday, rising to 0.9% in July, from 0.6% in June.
February's consumer price report, released tomorrow, likely will show that CPI inflation has breached the MPC's 2% target for the first time since November 2013. Indeed, we think the headline rate jumped to 2.2%, from 1.8% in January, exceeding the 2.1% rate expected by the MPC and the consensus.
For more than two years, the BoJ has fretted, in the outlook for economic activity and prices, that "there are items for which prices are not particularly responsive to the output gap."
Inflation pressures in the Eurozone have been building in recent months, but we think the headline is close to a peak for the year.
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