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24 August. 2016 Mexican Consumers' Spending Still Robust, but Set to Slow in H2 (Publication Centre)

Mexican consumers' spending improved toward the end of Q2. Retail sales jumped by 1.0% month-to-month in June, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 9.4%, from an already solid 8.6% in May. Still, private spending lost some momentum in the second quarter as a whole, rising by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, after a 3.8% jump in Q1. A modest slowdown in consumers' spending had to come eventually, following surging growth rates in the initial phases of the recovery.

29 May 2019 Chinese Industrial Profits Tanked in April, after the March Spike (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China dropped 3.7% year-over- year in April, after surging 13.9% in March, according to the officially reported data.

28 Aug 2020 The Devil is in the Details in China's Supposedly Strong Profits Picture (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continues to go from strength to strength, with growth accelerating to 19.6% year-over-year in July, from 11.5% in July.

31 July 2019 The Bank of Japan Snubs the Doves, with its Options Knowingly Limited (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.

8 April 2019 Recovering from the Shock of Japan's Wage Data... it's Not All Bad (Publication Centre)

Officially, Japanese wages have been falling year- over-year since January, marking a break from the gradual acceleration over the past 18 or so months.

9 April 2019 Inflation in the Andes Remains Tame Despite Overshooting in March (Publication Centre)

Colombia and Chile faced similar broad trends through most of 2018.

23 January 2018 China's Demand for Foreign Goods Slows as Output Curbs Loosened? (Publication Centre)

Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.

12 October 2017 China's Real GDP Growth Should Continue to Trend Down in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Next week is a big one for China. The five yearly Party Congress opens on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the monthly raft of activity data is published, along with Q3 GDP.

16 Dec. 2015 Sizzling Growth in the Periphery Lifting EZ Car Registrations (Publication Centre)

Demand for new cars rebounded strongly last month, following the dip in October. Registrations in the EU27 rose 13.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.9% in October, lifted mainly by buoyant growth in the periphery. New registrations surged 25.4% and 23.4% year-over-year in Spain and Italy respectively, while growth in the core was a more modest 10%. We also see few signs of the VW emissions scandal hitting the aggregate data. VW group sales have weakened, but were still up a respectable 4.1% year-over-year. This pushed the company's market share down marginally compared to last year. But sizzling growth rates for other manufacturers indicate that consumers are simply choosing different brands.

15 September 2017 Chinese Consumption and Investment is Weakening in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Chinese activity data published yesterday were much weaker than expected; growth rates fell resoundingly. Did analysts really get it wrong, or is this just another example of erratic Chinese data?

18 April 2018 Don't be Lulled by China's Steady Year-over-Year Growth Rate (Publication Centre)

We can't afford the luxury of believing China's year-over-year growth rates. Real GDP growth was 6.8% year-over-year in Q1, matching the rate in Q4 and Q3, and hitting consensus.

19 Oct. 2015 No Slowdown Yet in EZ Car Sales, But Next Year Will be Different (Publication Centre)

Car sales continue to offer solid support for consumption spending in the Eurozone. Growth of new car registrations in the euro area fell trivially to 10.6% year-over-year in September, from 10.8% in August, consistent with a stable trend. Surging sales in the periphery are the key driver of the impressive performance, with new registrations rising 22.1% and 17.1% in Spain and Italy respectively, and surging 30% in Portugal. Favorable base effects mean that rapid growth rates will continue in Q4, supporting consumers' spending.

11 January 2017 Slowdown in C&I Loan Growth Worrisome? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the slowdown in bank loan growth to commercial and industrial companies over the past two years looks alarming. In the year to November, the stock of loans outstanding rose by 8.0%, the smallest gain since January 2014. A further decline in the year-over-year rate, taking it below the rate of growth of nominal GDP--we expect 4.7% in the first quarter--for the first time in six years, is now a fair bet. The three- and six-month annualized growth rates of C&I lending in November were just 6.2% and 4.7% respectively, and still falling.

15 May. 2015 No Rest For Brazilian Consumers - Even Tougher Times Ahead (Publication Centre)

Consumption has been a serious weak spot in Brazil over the past year. After reaching record growth rates in 2010, it has gradually slowed to its lowest pace in more than ten years.

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