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We still don't have the complete picture of what happened to the EZ construction sector in Q2, but we have enough evidence to suggest that it rolled over.
It's been a sobering couple of months in the Eurozone economy.
It is a known axiom among EZ economists that the ECB never pre-commits, but yesterday's speech by Mr. Draghi in Sintra--see here--is as close as it gets.
Economists refer to two different types of forward rate guidance by central banks: Delphic and Odyssean. The former describes a "normal" situation, in which the central bank follows a transparent rate-setting rule allowing markets to forecast what it will do, based on the flow of economic data.
The ECB will deliver a carbon copy of its December meeting today, at least in terms of the main headlines.
Inflation in the Eurozone fell significantly last month, and probably will ease further in Q1.
The key aspects of the ECB's policy stance will remain unchanged at today's meeting.
The first economic report of 2020 confirmed the main story in the euro area last year; namely a recession in manufacturing.
The Spanish economy remains the star performer among the majors in the Eurozone.
Equities in the Eurozone are off to a strong start in Q2, building on their punchy 12% gain in the first quarter.
Our suggestion that the ECB could still raise the deposit rate later this year, by 20bp to -0.4%, has met with strong scepticism in recent conversations with readers.
Base effects were the key driver of yesterday's upbeat industrial production headline in Italy.
In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.
The debate about the ECB's policy trajectory is bifurcated at the moment. Markets are increasingly convinced that a rapidly strengthening economy will force the central bank to make a hawkish adjustment in its stance.
We suspect that today's ECB meeting will be a sideshow to the political chaos in the U.K., but that doesn't change the fact that the central bank's to-do list is long.
Bond investors in the Eurozone are licking their wounds following a 40 basis point backup in 10-year yields since the end of last month. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but we doubt that inflation data will provide much comfort for bond markets in the short term.
While we were away, the advance Q2 GDP report in the Eurozone confirmed our expectations of a strong first half of the year for the economy. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in Q1, lifting the year-over-year rate to a cyclical high of 2.1%.
Our base case remains a 10bp cut in the deposit rate, to -0.5%, in September.
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