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4 January 2019 No Need to Lower 2019 Economic Forecasts for Equity Market Drama (Publication Centre)

The 15% fall in the FTSE 100 since its May 2018 peak undoubtedly is an unwelcome development for the economy, but past experience suggests we shouldn't rush to revise down our forecasts for GDP growth.

2 November 2018 Will the October Stock Market Swoon Hurt the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Last month was sobering month for equity investors in the Eurozone, and indeed in the global economy as a whole.

20 August 2018 EZ Inflation has Peaked for the Year, but Core Rate to Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Friday's final EZ CPI data for July confirm the advance report.

20 September 2017 Construction in the Eurozone Will Continue to Lift GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction in the Eurozone had a decent start in the third quarter. Output rose 0.5% month-to- month in July, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.9% from 2.8% in June.

2 January 2019 The EZ Economy is Flirting With Recession at the Start of 2019 (Publication Centre)

We suspect that euro area investors have one question on their mind as we step into 2019.

19 December 2018 Another Strong Economic Activity Index in Brazil Outlook is Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Brazil is back on global investors' radar screens. Financial market metrics capture a relatively robust bullish tone, especially since the presidential election.

17 November 2017 A Perfect Mix of Low Core Inflation and High GDP Growth in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's CPI report in the Eurozone confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued, even as GDP growth is accelerating.

18 January 2018 China's Regulation Juggernaut Rolls into 2018. Enforcement Intensifies? (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, after October's Party Congress, the Chinese authorities came out with significant new directives and regulations on an almost weekly basis.

22 January 2019 Your Guide to Water Levels on the Rhine Below 1m is a Problem (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone showed that German producer price inflation edged lower at the end of 2018.

15 November 2018 Japan's Q3 GDP Drops Q4 will be Better but Trends are Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Japanese leading indicators point to a slowdown, and the trend over this volatile year is emerging as firmly downward.

22 September 2016 Yield Curve Control Will be Tricky to Implement in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

We tend to keep a close eye on monetary policy initiatives in Japan, as the BOJ's fight to spur inflation in a rapidly ageing economy resembles the challenge faced by the ECB.

5 September 2017 How Much of a Headwind is a Stronger Euro for EZ Equities? (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.

6 April 2017 Firms in the EZ are Investing Again, but What About Wages? (Publication Centre)

Readers have asked us about the availability of flow-of-funds data in the Eurozone similar to the detailed U.S. reports. The ECB's sector accounts come close and cover a lot of ground, but are also released with a lag. We can't cover all sectors in one Monitor, but the investment data for non-financial firms, excluding construction, suggest that investment growth slowed last year.

9 January 2019 Positive Signs so far, After China and the U.S. Resume Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

The first round of trade talks between the U.S.and China kicked off in Beijing on Monday, marking the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides since Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping struck a "truce" in December.

5 June 2018 Eurozone Investors Haven't Been this Gloomy Since 2012 (Publication Centre)

If you were looking just at investor sentiment in the Eurozone, you would conclude that the economy is in recession.

30 November 2017 Japanese Retail Sales Disappoint but Confidence Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Japanese retail sales were unchanged in October month-on-month, after a 0.8% rise in September.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

29 April 2019 Mexico's Economy is Stabilizing, Despite Stifling Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico remains relatively sticky, limiting Banxico's capacity to adopt a more dovish approach, despite the subpar economic recovery.

29 June 2018 Trade Tensions Unveil Chinese Financial Fragility (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors, we have outlined our base case that the direct impact of tariffs on Chinese GDP will be minimal this year.

Andres Abadia

Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

10 July 2019 Time for a Serious Debate about More QE in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

Our base case remains a 10bp cut in the deposit rate, to -0.5%, in September.

10 December 2018 EZ Consumption Slowed Sharply in Q3, is a Q4 Rebound Coming? (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone. The final and detailed GDP report confirmed that growth in the euro area slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.4% in Q2, with the year-over-year rate slipping by 0.6 percentage points to 1.6%, just 0.1pp below the first estimate.

07 Jan. 2016 Solid EZ Economic Data Amid Rising Volatility in Equity Markets (Publication Centre)

Increased volatility has given equity investors a torrid start to the year, but economic reports have been strong, and yesterday's PMIs were no exception. The composite index in the Eurozone rose marginally to 54.3 in December from 54.2 in November, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.0. This is consistent with a continuing cyclical recovery, and real GDP growth of 0.4%-to-0.5% in Q4, modestly higher than the 0.3% rise in the third quarter.

26 June 2017 Equity Markets will Worry if EZ PMIs Fall Further in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.

21 June 2017 German PPI Likely has Peaked in 2017, Will Equity Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

German producer price inflation fell last month, following uninterrupted gains since the beginning of this year. Headline PPI inflation fell to 2.8% year-over- year in May, from 3.4% in April, constrained by lower energy inflation, which slipped to 3.0%, from 4.6% in April. Meanwhile, non-energy inflation declined marginally to 2.7%, from 2.8%.

7 June. 2016 Are Eurozone Equity Markets Complacent About Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in the U.K. have reminded markets that the vote is too close to call at this point, but investors in the Eurozone appear unfazed, so far. The headline Sentix index rose to 9.9 in June, from 6.2 in May, lifted by the expectations index, which increased to a six-month high of 10.0 from 5.5 in May.

28 Apr. 2015 Too Far, Too Fast For Eurozone Equity Markets since October? (Publication Centre)

QE and a gradually strengthening economy will remain positive catalysts for equities in the euro area this year. But with the MSCI EU ex -UK up almost 24% in the first quarter, the best quarterly performance since Q4 1999, the question is whether the good news has already been priced in.

18 Jan. 2016 Is it Time to Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater? (Publication Centre)

Investors have endured a severe test of their resolve in the last few months. Global equity markets have sunk more than 10%, eclipsing the previous low in September, and credit spreads have widened. The bears have predictably pounced and, as if the torrid price action hasn't been enough, media headlines have been littered with advice to "sell everything" and warnings of a 75% fall in U.S. and global equities. When "price is news" we recognise that views from well-meaning economists--often using lagging and revised economic data to describe the world--are of little value.

20 June. 2016 Will EZ Equity Inflows Rebound Again in this Business Cycle? (Publication Centre)

A year can make a big difference for the equity market. At this point last year, holders of the MSCI EU ex-UK were looking at a meaty gain of 21% year-to-date. The corresponding number this year is a sobering -12%. This is a remarkable shift, given stable GDP growth, close to cyclical highs, and additional easing by the ECB.

15 Dec. 2014 Stocks Should Start Well in 2015, But Much Still Hinges on the ECB (Publication Centre)

The equity market this year has been a story of two halves. Hopes of a sustainable economic recovery pushed the benchmark Eurozone equity index to an 7.5% increase in the first six months of the year.

12 May 2017 Will Mr. Macron Unleash Animal Spirits in Eurozone Equities? (Publication Centre)

Emmanuel Macron's victory in France has lifted investors' hopes that the good times in the Eurozone economy and equity markets are here to stay. On the face of it, we share markets' optimism. Mr. Macron and his opposite number in Germany--our base case is that Ms. Merkel will remain Chancellor--will form a strong pro-EU axis in the core of the Eurozone.

25 Jan. 2016 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, Despite Disappointing Dip (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data indicate a slow start to the first quarter for the Eurozone economy. The composite index fell to 53.5 in January from 54.3 in December, due to weakness in both services and manufacturing. The correlation between month-to-month changes in the PMI and MSCI EU ex-UK is a decent 0.4, and we can't rule out the ide a that the horrible equity market performance has dented sentiment. The sudden swoon in markets, however, has also led to fears of an imminent recession. But it would be a major overreaction to extrapolate three weeks' worth of price action in equities to the real economy.

4 August. 2016 Will the ECB Take The Markets' Hint on Negative Interest Rates? (Publication Centre)

Markets initially applauded the ECB for its bold actions, but the tune has changed recently. Negative interest rates, in particular, have been vilified for their margin destroying effect in the banking sector. Our first chart shows that the relative performance of financials in the EZ equity market has dwindled steadily in line with the plunge in yields.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

27 Jan. 2016 FOMC Likely to Warn Again of External Risks, and do... Nothing (Publication Centre)

Today's FOMC announcement will be something of a non-event. Rates were never likely to rise immediately after December's hike, and the weakness of global equity markets means the chance of a further tightening today is zero.

7 February 2018 Risk Asset Sell-off Likely Won't Derail LatAm's Benign Outlook (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in equity markets and increases in volatility have put EM assets under pressure. EM equities and bonds, however, have been outperforming their U.S. and global market counterparts.

28 March 2017 Full-Scale Tax Reform Likely is Dead (Publication Centre)

The failure of House Republicans to support Speaker Ryan's healthcare bill has laid bare the splits within the Republican party. The fissures weren't hard to see even before last week's debacle but the equity market has appeared determined since November to believe that all the earnings-friendly elements of Mr. Trump's and Mr. Ryan's agendas would be implemented with the minimum of fuss.

27 Jan. 2016 The Curious Case of Missing Equity Earnings in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors continue to look to the ECB as the main reason to justify a constructive stance on the equity market. Last week, the central bank all but promised additional easing in March, but the soothing words by Mr. Draghi have, so far, given only a limited lift to equities. Easy monetary policy has partly been offset by external risks, in the form of fears over slow growth in China, and the risk of low oil prices sparking a wave of corporate defaults. But uncertainty over earnings is another story we frequently hear from disappointed equity investors. We continue to think that QE and ZIRP offer powerful support for equity valuations in the Eurozone, but weak earnings are a key missing link in the story.

Consistently Right

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