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21 November 2018 Commodity Prices Struggle in the Trade War Will LatAm be Resilient (Publication Centre)

The sharp downtrend in commodity prices in recent months is alarming from a LatAm perspective.

30 July. 2015 Ignore Volatile Commodity Prices, and Focus on Core Inflation (Publication Centre)

Volatile commodity prices make this week's inflation data in Germany and the Eurozone a wild card. Crude oil in euro terms is down about 20% month-to-month in July, which will weigh on energy prices. In Germany, though, we think higher core inflation offset the hit from oil, pushing inflation slightly higher to 0.4% year-over-year in July from 0.3% in June.

14 March 2017 Commodity Prices won't Alter the Improving LatAm Picture (Publication Centre)

The medium-term outlook in most LatAm economies is improving, though economic activity is likely to remain anaemic in the near term. The gradual recovery in commodity prices is supporting resource economies, while the post-election surge in global stock prices has boosted confidence. But country-specific domestic considerations are equally relevant; the growth stories differ across the region.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

13 October 2017 Japan's Commodity-Driven PPI Inflation Hits Consumer Goods (Publication Centre)

Japanese PPI inflation continues to be driven mainly by imported metals and energy price inflation. Metals, energy, power and water utilities, and related items, account for nearly 30% of the PPI.

11 Sept 2019 China's PPI Deflation isn't all Commodity-Driven (Publication Centre)

China's PPI deflation deepened in August, with prices dropping 0.8% year-over-year, after a 0.3% decline in July.

26 August. 2015 Sharp Swings In LatAm Markets Highlights Their Vulnerabilities (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies and stock markets have suffered badly in recent weeks, but Monday turned into a massacre with the MSCI stock index for the region falling close to 4%. Markets rebounded marginally yesterday, but remain substantially lower than their April-May peaks. Each economy has its own story, so the market hit has been uneven, but all have been battered as China's stock market has crashed. The downward spiral in commodity prices--oil hit almost a seven-year low on Monday--is making the economic and financial outlook even worse for LatAm.

27 September. 2016 Current Account Improving in Brazil, But Momentum is Fading (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts have recovered dramatically this year, and we expect a further improvement--albeit at a much slower pace--in the fourth quarter. The steep depreciation of the BRL last year, and the improving terms of trade due to the gradual recovery in commodity prices, drove the decline in the current account deficit in the first half.

18 Nov 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains the Star Performer in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Most of the Andean economies have been hit by the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few quarters. But modest recovery in commodity prices in Q3, and relatively solid domestic fundamentals helped them to avoid a protracted slowdown in Q2 and most of Q3.

27 June 2017 Japanese Inflation to Hold up as Food Prices Counterbalance Energy (Publication Centre)

Japanese services price inflation edged down in May as the twin upside drivers of commodity price inflation and yen weakness began to lose steam. We expect wage costs to begin edging up in the second half but this will provide only a partial counterbalance.

13 July 2017 Japanese PPI Inflation to Decelerate, but Only Modestly (Publication Centre)

Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.

6 Sept 2019 Chile's Central Bank Cuts Rates and will Act if the Trade War Escalates (Publication Centre)

Chile's economy started the third quarter decently, after taking a series of hits, including low commodity prices and the slowdown of the global economy.

8 April 2019 Andean Economies Hoping for a U.S.-China Trade Deal Soon (Publication Centre)

Fears of a Chinese hard landing have roiled financial and commodity markets this past year and have constrained the economic recovery of major raw material exporters in LatAm.

11 January 2018 Chinese Manufacturing Goods Inflation Slows with Commodities (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation fell to 4.9% in December, from 5.8% in November. The decline was expected, but underneath the slowdown in commodity price inflation, the rate of increase of manufacturing goods prices is slowing sharply too.

11 Nov 2019 AU.S.-Sino Trade Truce will Help to Offset Domestic LatAm Shocks (Publication Centre)

The apparent thaw in the U.S.-China trade dispute is great news for LatAm, particularly for the Andean economies, which are highly dependent on commodity prices and the health of the world's two largest economies

Question of the Week, WC 28th Oct (Media Centre)

What do the protests mean for Chile's economy?

25 Feb 2020 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Tame, but the Virus is a Real Threat (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February.

26 July 2019 Mexico's Economy is Under Strain, But Falling Inflation is its Last Hope (Publication Centre)

We remain negative about the medium-term growth prospects of the Mexican economy.

26 Mar 2020 CPI Inflation to Slide Well Below 1% in the Summer (Publication Centre)

New BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be reaching for his letter-writing pen soon, to explain to the Chancellor why CPI inflation is more than one percentage point below the 2% target.

25 Apr. 2016 Brazil is Still Struggling, But Recent Data Are Encouraging (Publication Centre)

Financial market performance and economic survey data on the Brazilian economy have been better than many investors and commentators feared this year. The composite PMI has improved gradually since November last year, consumer sentiment has stabilized, and national business surveys have been less bleak.

25 May 2017 Is it Time to Tell a Less Upbeat Story on the Eurozone Consumer? (Publication Centre)

Markets cheered soaring business surveys in the Eurozone earlier this week, and recent consumer sentiment data also have been cause for celebration. The advance GfK consumer confidence index in Germany rose to a record high of 10.4 in June, from 10.2 in May.

26 April 2017 Weaker Growth in Tax Receipts Adds to Slowdown Signs (Publication Centre)

March's public sector borrowing figures brought more signs that the economy has lost considerable momentum this year. Borrowing, on the PSNB excluding public sector banks measure, came in at £5.1B in March, up slightly from £4.3B in March 2016.

26 Nov 2019 Mexico's Economy is in a Mild Recession, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy is still struggling in the face of domestic and external headwinds.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

26 Feb 2020 Global Threats will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy this Year (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.

26 Jan. 2015 Banxico on Hold, Thanks to Slowing Inflation--But No Easing (Publication Centre)

Mexican inflation fell sharply in the first two weeks of January, dipping by 0.2% from two weeks earlier, thanks to lower energy prices and a reduction in long-distance phone tariffs. Telecom reform explains about 15bp of the headline reduction.

25 Nov 2019 Japanese October Retail Sales Likely Plunged, Despite Stable Inflation (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation was stable at 0.2% in October, despite the sales tax hike, thanks to a combination of offsetting measures from the government and a deepening of energy deflation.

27 Nov 2019 The Brazilian Real Weakens Further, Despite Improving Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The BRL remains under severe stress, despite renewed signals of a sustained economic recovery and strengthening expectations that the end of the monetary easing cycle is near.

29 Jan 2020 Brazil External Accounts Weakened in 2019, but Are Not a Concern Yet (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot again last year.

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

28 November 2017 Chinese Profits Headline Overstates Growth. Private Firms Struggling (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth officially edged down to 25.1% year-over-year in October, from 27.7% in September. This is still very rapid but we think the official data are overstating the true rate of growth.

29 January 2018 Brazil External Accounts Are Authorities' Least Source of Concern (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a bright spot last year, again.

29 January 2019 Industrial Profits in China Remain Terrible, Underneath the Surface (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits data for December showed continued weakness in the sector, with no clear signs that a turnaround is in the offing.

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

29 July 2020 Brazil's Improving External Accounts Strengthens the Case for a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain relatively solid, making it easier for the country to withstand any potential external or domestic threat.

29 July 2019 Solid External Accounts in Brazil, Mexico Flirting with Recession (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain solid, despite the recent modest deterioration, making it easier for the country to withstand external and domestic risks.

28 May 2019 The Trade War: What we Know, What we Believe, and What we Don't Know (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is a macroeconomic event, whose implications for economic growth and inflation can be estimated and measured using straightforward standard macroeconomic tools and data.

28 March 2019 China Profits will Bounce Back in March Proper Recovery is Coming (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits tanked in January/ February, falling 14.0% year-to-date year-over-year, after a 1.9% drop year-over-year in December.

28 April 2017 Current Account in Brazil Still Improving, But not for Long (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

27 Jan 2020 Mexico's IGAE Index Points to a Further Dip in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The dovish members of Banxico's board garnered further support on Friday for prolonging the current easing monetary cycle over coming meetings.

27 February 2019 Brazil's External Accounts Likely will Remain a Bright Spot this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts are well under control, despite the wider deficit in January, mainly driven by seasonal deterioration on the trade account.

28 Aug 2019 Peru's Economy is Still Growing, but External Threats are Significant (Publication Centre)

Data last week confirmed that Peru's economic growth slowed sharply in the first half of the year, due to the damaging effects of the global trade war hitting exports.

28 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Mexican Retail Sales, but Total Consumption is What Matters (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.

28 June 2019 More Modest Pre-tax Front-Loading for Japan this Time Around? (Publication Centre)

Japan's May retail sales rebound was underwhelming at a mere 0.3% month-on-month, after a 0.1% fall in April.

28 June 2017 Chinese Profits Growth to Decelerate, That's a Good Thing (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth rose to 16.7% year-on-year in May, from 14.0% in April. But this headline is highly misleading. Profits growth data are about as cyclical as they come so taking one point in the year and looking back 12 months is very arbitrary. Moreover, the data are very volatile over short periods.

28 Jan 2020 Mexican Consumers' Spending Fell in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Mexican consumers' spending is slowing, despite the better- than-expected November retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

26 September 2018 Brazil's External Accounts Will Remain Resilient the BRL Will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazilian financial assets lately appear to be responding only to developments in the presidential election race and external jitters.

22 Nov 2019 No Respite in Sight for LatAm Currencies in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Most LatAm currencies have been under pressure recently, with the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso breaking all-time lows versus the USD in recent weeks.

21 Apr 2020 Challenging Global Conditions Have Underscored Countries' Fragilities (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor, we warned that Moody's would soon cut Mexico's credit rating; in a matter of hours, it was a done deal.

20 Nov 2019 BRL Pressure Should Ease, Argentina's Inflation Dips Temporarily (Publication Centre)

Prospects for further rate cuts in Brazil, due to the sluggishness of the economic recovery and low inflation, have played against the BRL in recent weeks.

20 May 2020 Coronavirus Delivers a Tough Blow to Argentina's Struggling Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over the last month showed that the economy was struggling in early Q1, even before the Covid-19 hit.

21 Aug 2019 Resilient Domestic Demand in the Andes, Despite Global Tensions (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies haven't been immune to the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few weeks.

21 August 2018 Chile's Fundamentals are Improving This Likely Will Offset External Risks (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q2 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered strength in the first half of the year, consolidating a strong recovery that started in Q3 2017.

21 Jan 2020 Colombia's Private Consumption Slowed in Q4, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.

21 February 2017 Brazil's Current Account Remains Healthy, FDI In ows are Robust (Publication Centre)

Brazil's current account data last week provided further evidence of stabilisation in the economy, despite the modest headline deterioration. The unadjusted current account deficit increased marginally to USD5.1B in January, from USD4.8B in January 2016, but the underlying trend remains stable, at about 1.3% of GDP. Our first two charts show that the overall deficit began to stabilize in mid-2016, as the rate of improvement in the trade balance slowed, reflecting the easing of the domestic recession.

20 March 2017 The BCCh Leaves Open a Tiny Space for Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank cut the policy rate 25bp last week to 3.0%, in line with consensus, amid easing inflationary pressures. The timing of the rate cut was no surprise; in January, the BCCh cut rates for the first time in more than two years, and kept a dovish bias.

20 Mar 2020 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Measures to Fight the Economic Armageddon (Publication Centre)

Economic and financial conditions continue to deteriorate sharply in LatAm.

2 November 2017 China's "War on Pollution" will Take its Toll on GDP Growth in Q4-Q1 (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.0 in October, continuing the sideways trend this year.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

20 Dec 2019 Banxico to Deliver Further Rate Cuts, Argentina's Recession Ends, Briefly (Publication Centre)

Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% yesterday, as was widely expected, following similar moves in August, September and November.

20 Jan 2020 Argentina's Inflation Ended 2019 Badly, but the BCRA is Cutting Rates (Publication Centre)

Argentina's inflation ended 2019 badly, and it is still too early to bet on a protracted downtrend, even after the renewed economic slowdown.

20 June 2017 China Property is Slowing, Prices now Depend on Mortgage Rates (Publication Centre)

House price inflation in tier-one cities has been crushed by China's most recent monetary tightening. This is a sharp turnaround from the overheating mid-way through last year. Unlike in previous cycles, interest rates are probably more important for house prices than broad money growth.

20 July 2020 What would it Mean for LatAm if Biden Wins the U.S. Election? (Publication Centre)

In about 100 days, the LatAm economy and financial markets will face a defining moment in the face of uncertainty, namely, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

21 January 2019 Colombia's Private Spending Did Well in Q4, 2019 Will Be Solid (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity remained strong in Q4.

21 January 2019 How Far Will Sterling Jump if a Soft Brexit Becomes Government Policy? (Publication Centre)

Signs that the government is softening its Brexit plans, in response to its substantial defeat in the Commons last week, has enabled sterling to recover most of the ground lost against the dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of last year.

29 July. 2016 Will Household Saving Rise and Tip the Economy into Recession? (Publication Centre)

Households' saving decisions will play a key role in determining whether the economy slips into recession over the next year. Indeed, all of the last three recessions coincided with sharp rises in the household saving rate, as our first chart shows. Will households save more in response to greater economic uncertainty?

22 May 2020 An Uptick in Sentiment Indicators, but Brazil's Covid Crisis Worsens (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

22 November. 2016 Trade Data are Improving in the Andes... Better Still in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's trade deficit continued to narrow in Q3; a postive development now that EM are back in the firing line. Assuming no revisions, the marginal year-over-year dip in the September trade deficit means that the third quarter deficit was USD3.1B, down from US4.6B a year ago.

23 Mar 2020 Plunging External Trade, Halting Domestic Demand, LatAm in Disarray (Publication Centre)

Policymakers and governments are gradually deploying major fiscal and monetary policy measures to ease the hit from Covid-19 and the related financial crisis.

24 April 2019 Colombia's Economy is Gathering Speed following a Soft End to 2018 (Publication Centre)

Colombia's recently-released data signal that the economy started the year quite strongly, following a relatively poor end to Q4.

23 November. 2016 Brazil's Current Account De cit is Stabilizing, Improvement Ahead (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external deficit fell marginally in October, but most of the improvement is now likely behind us. The unadjusted current account deficit dipped to USD3.3B, from USD4.3B in October 2015. The trend is stabilizing, with the 12-month total rolling deficit easing to USD22B--that's 1.2% of GDP--from USD23B in September.

22 May 2019 Sino-U.S. Negotiations are a Key Risk to Andean External Accounts (Publication Centre)

Data released on Monday showed that Chile's external accounts remained under pressure at the start of the year, and trade tensions mean that it will be harder to finance the gap.

22 May 2017 Have Eurozone Investors Lost Their Appetite for Foreign Debt? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus remained close to record highs at the end of Q1, despite dipping slightly to €34.1B in March, from a revised €37.8B in February. A further increase in the services surplus was the key story.

21 June 2019 As Markets Attack, the BoJ is Caught like a Deer in the Headlights (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, BoJ policy seems to be to change none of the settings and let things unfold, hoping that the trade war doesn't escalate, that China's recovery gets underway soon, and that semiconductor sales pick up in the second half.

21 July 2020 The Economic Recovery Continues, Despite High Rates of Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus ordeal continues in LatAm as a whole.

21 March 2018 The BRL is Flat Year-to-Date, but Politics is Driving Some Pressures (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian BRL has remained relatively stable year-to-date, following a strong rebound in January. But downward pressures have re-emerged over the last two months, as shown in our first chart.

22 Jan 2020 Decent Consumption Can't Stop Mexican Unemployment Rising (Publication Centre)

High interest rates and inflation, coupled with increasing uncertainty, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

22 January 2018 External Factors for LatAm are Positive, but Vary Across Countries (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

22 Jan. 2016 How Long Will the Inventory Correction Last? (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a substantial inventory hit in the fourth quarter, subtracting about 1¼ percentage points from headline GDP growth. Businesses very likely added to their inventories in Q4, in real terms, but the we reckon the increase was only about $30B, annualized, compared to the $85.5B jump in the third quarter. Remember, the contribution to GDP growth is the change in the pace of inventory-building between quarters.

24 Jan 2020 Mid-month Inflation Data Support Banxico and BCB's Dovish Strategy (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation is off to a bad start this year, but January's jump is not the start of an uptrend, and we think good news is coming.

3 June 2020 Chile's Economy Collapses in Q2, but Q3 will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative after a sharp resurgence of coronavirus cases.

6 Jan 2020 The Mexican Economy will Resume Growth, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of poor economic activity in Q4.

6 Dec 2019 Brazil's Recovery Continues, in Stark Contrast to Chile's-Temporary-Woes (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is on the mend, but some of the key sub-sectors are struggling.

5 October 2017 Japan's Domestic Demand Slowed in Q3 as Consumers Pulled Back (Publication Centre)

Japan's Nikkei services PMI dropped to 51.0 in September from 51.6 in August, continuing the downtrend since June. For Q3 as a whole, the headline averaged 51.5, down from 52.8 in Q2; that's a clear loss of momentum.

6 July 2017 Chinese Service Sector Downtrend to Continue into the Second Half (Publication Centre)

China's service sector slowed again in June, with the Caixin PMI falling to 51.6 from 52.8 in May. The Q2 average of 52.0 was only minimally lower than the 52.6 in Q1.

6 July 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is on the Mend, but Downside Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still suffering, but the pain is easing as the economy gradually reopens. That said, full recovery is a long way off, and the pandemic is still far from over, adding downside risks to the recent upbeat picture.

6 Mar 2020 Brazil's Economic Recovery to Continue, if Covid-19 Allows it (Publication Centre)

Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

5 Nov 2019 Chilean Private Demand will Slow in Q4, Rising Exports will Ease the Pain (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Chile, despite the relatively decent Imacec reading for Q3.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

4 Oct 2019 Will Peru's Political Crisis Dent the Economic Recovery (Publication Centre)

Peru is now in the grip of a severe political storm that is shaking the country's foundations and darkening the already fragile economic outlook.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

5 July 2019 Chile's Retail Sector is Stabilizing, but Policy Uncertainty Remains (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery disappointed in Chile during most of the first half of the year, despite relatively healthy fundamentals, including low interest rates, low inflation and stable financial metrics.

6 March 2017 Fed Fears Hit LatAm FX Last Week - is a Renewed Sell-off Coming? (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have struggled in recent days as it has become clear that the Fed will hike next week. But we don't expect currencies to collapse, as domestic fundamentals are improving and the broader external outlook is relatively benign.

6 Nov 2019 Minutes Confirm COPOM's Cautious Tone, Mexico's Inflation to Fall Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the October 31 COPOM meeting, at which the Central Bank cut the Selic rate unanimously by 50bp at 5.00%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué, which signalled that rates will be cut by the "same magnitude" in December.

9 June 2020 Have Chinese Exports Avoided the Worst of the Covid Hit to Trade (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus jumped to a record high in May, defying expectations for a fall by spiking to $69.2B.

9 February 2018 China's Trade Surplus Knocked by Calendar Effects, RMB Takes a Cue (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus tumbled to $20.3B in January, from $54.7B in December, surprising the consensus for little change.

9 June 2020 The Severity of the Recession will Keep Inflation Low in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.

9 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Hit Likely will Allow LatAm Banks to Cut Rates Soon (Publication Centre)

The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.

Asia 11 May 2020 Ignore China's Sturdy April Exports, Catch-Up can only go so Far (Publication Centre)

China's export data for April were a mixed bag, to say the least.

9 October 2018 Anti-Establishment Sentiment Lands a Big Win in Brazil on Sunday (Publication Centre)

Since April, the presidential elections in Brazil have dominated local discourse, prompting several market moves.

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

7 Feb 2020 A Weak Economy Could Challenge COPOM's View that Easing is Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

7 Jan 2020 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative, but clouds have been gradually dispersing since late Q4, due mostly to better news on the global trade front, China's improving economic prospects, and rising copper prices.

8 Jan 2020 Improving External Conditions Add to Colombia's Economic Resilience (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing LatAm economy in 2019, due mostly to strong domestic demand, offsetting a sharp fall in key exports.

8 June 2018 Q2 Growth is Looking Very Strong, but Inventories Set to Disappoint? (Publication Centre)

The latest iteration of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model of second quarter GDP growth shows the economy expanding at a 4.5% annualized rate.

8 January 2019 Colombia's Economic Resilience Will be Challenged in the First Half (Publication Centre)

Colombia was one of the fastest growing economies in LatAm in 2018, and prospects for this year have improved significantly following June's presidential election, with the market-friendly candidate, Iván Duque, winning.

4 May 2017 Strong Q1 GDP Data in the EZ, but the Annualised Trend is not 2% (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone enjoyed a strong start to 2017. Yesterday's advance data showed that real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, a similar pace to Q4, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The year-over-year rate dipped to 1.7%, from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q4.

4 March 2019 A Solid Finish to 2018 for Colombia Momentum Will be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth hit a relatively solid 2.8% year-over-year in Q4, up from 2.7% in Q3, helped by improving domestic fundamentals, which offset the drag from weaker terms of trade.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost (Publication Centre)

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

30 August 2017 Argentina's Recovery is Gaining Traction but Inflation is Still a Risk (Publication Centre)

Recently data from Argentina continue to signal a firming cyclical recovery. According to INDEC's EMAE economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, the economy grew 4.0% year-over-year in June, up from an already-solid 3.4% in May.

30 June 2017 Temer's Fate Carries Risks, but a Currency Meltdown Isn't One (Publication Centre)

Brazil's unadjusted current account surplus soared to USD2.9B in May, its highest level since 2006, from USD1.1B in May 2016.

30 June. 2016 Commodities are Helping LatAm's Recovery - Brexit not a Deal-Breaker (Publication Centre)

The downturn in LatAm is finally bottoming out, but the economy of the region as a whole will not return to positive year-over-year economic growth until next year. The domestic side of the region's economy is improving, at the margin, thanks mainly to the improving inflation picture, and relatively healthy labor markets.

30 June 2020 Argentina's Economic Nightmare will Continue, Despite Bottoming in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Argentina's economy remains a mess.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

3 July 2017 China's Industrial Complex still Strong in Q2, H2 in Draghi's Hands (Publication Centre)

We expect China's quarterly real GDP growth in the second quarter to edge down from Q1, but only because Q1 growth was unsustainable. The official data shows real GDP growth at 1.3% quarter-onquarter in Q1.

29 September 2017 China's Pending Targeted RRR cut Implies SMEs are Struggling (Publication Centre)

China is set to ease reserve requirements for banks lending to small businesses. In a statement after the State Council meeting yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang said that commercial banks would receive a cut in their RRR , from 17% currently, based on how much they lend to businesses run by individuals.

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

3 Apr 2020 Who Will Finance China's Ballooning Fiscal Deficit (Publication Centre)

China's economic targets are AWOL this year, thanks to Covid-19 disruptions to the legislative calendar... and because policymakers seem unsure of what targets to set in such uncertain times.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

3 Jan 2020 LatAm Prospects are Gradually Improving as Trade Tensions Ease (Publication Centre)

The data in LatAm were all over the map while we were out.

3 Feb 2020 Chile to Perform Relatively Well this Year, the Protest Shock will Ease (Publication Centre)

Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

30 October 2017 Is China's Profits Surge Driving up Developers' Short-term Borrowing? (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits continue to surge, rising 27.7% year-over-year in September, up from 24.0% in August.

4 July 2018 Consumption is on the Mend in LatAm but Downside Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Consumption remains an important source of economic growth in LatAm.

4 January 2018 2018-to-2019 will Expose Asian Imbalances, Hurting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Let's say we are right, and global yields go up this year. Somewhere in the world, imbalances will be exposed, causing financial ructions and damaging GDP growth.

4 June 2019 The Official PMI has it Right Tariff hit has Derailed China's Trade Recovery (Publication Centre)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

4 Mar. 2015 Brazil's Central Bank Set to Respond As Inflation Fails to Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil is now paying the price of President Rousseff's first term, which was characterized by unaffordable expansionary policies. As a result, inflation is now trending higher, forcing the BCB to tighten at a more aggressive pace than initially intended--or expected by investors--depressing business and investment confidence.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 Feb 2020 Coronavirus will Keep Policymakers in the Andes on the Sidelines (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank has found a relatively sweet spot.

4 Dec 2019 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but External Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady capex growth and rebounding household consumption.

31 July 2018 Brazil's Solid External Accounts Offsetting Fiscal Risk, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain solid, despite the recent modest deterioration.

31 Jan 2020 Services Output Supported a Weakening Mexican Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2019 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was extremely poor, due to domestic and external shocks.

31 July 2020 Covid-19 Brought Mexico's Economy to its Knees, and the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy has been under severe stress in recent months.

31 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Brings More Economic Pain for Argentina, and Bondholders (Publication Centre)

The virus outbreak has been relatively limited so far in Argentina, with 820 confirmed cases, but the numbers are rising rapidly.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

31 March 2017 The Economic Outlook is Improving in Brazil, and even in Mexico (Publication Centre)

Downside risks to our growth forecast for Brazil and Mexico for this year have diminished this week. In Brazil, concerns over the potential impact of the meat scandal on the economy have diminished. Some key global customers, including Hong Kong, have in recent days eased restrictions on imports from Brazil, and other counties have ended their bans.

29 May 2020 The Pandemic is Worsening in the Andes, Despite the Quick Response (Publication Centre)

We were expecting the pandemic in the Andes to reach a plateau over the coming weeks, given the quick response of regional governments to fight the virus.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

13 December 2017 Japan's PPI Inflation Will Soon Fall, but Second-Round Effects to Come (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation edged up further in November to 3.5%, from October's 3.4%. Energy was the main driver, with petroleum and coal contributing 0.8 percentage points to the year-over-year rate, up from a 0.7pp contribution in October.

2 June 2020 Chinese Industry is Skating on Thin Ice, Given Sinking Export Orders (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in China continued to trudge along in May, with their post-lockdown recovery looking increasingly fragile.

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

12 Nov 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Leading Indicators are Grim (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial sector did relatively well in Q3, due mainly to the resilience of the manufacturing sector, and the rebound in construction and oil output, following a long period of sluggishness.

12 May 2020 Andean Economies Stand Out for their Solid Response to Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The Andean countries were quick to implement significant measures in response to the initial stage of the pandemic, adopting a broad range of economic and social policies to ease the effects.

12 June 2018 Don't Jump on China's PPI Inflation Pick-up - Inflation will Slow in Q3 (Publication Centre)

China's PPI inflation has been trending down since early 2017.

12 June 2020 Main Capex Pinch in Japan will be in Q3, Stimulus Cushion is Limited (Publication Centre)

Core machine orders in Japan collapsed in April, as expected, falling by 12.0% month-on-month, worse than the minor 0.4% slip in March.

12 March 2018 Modest Inflation Pressures will Allow the BCB to Deliver a Final Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation has been well under control in the past few months, laying the ground for a final rate cut at the monetary policy meeting on March 21.

12 March 2019 The Data are Choppy, but Chinese Monetary Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy loosening over the last year implies that China's M1 growth already should be picking up.

13 June. 2016 Germany Escapes Deflation, and it Won't Return Anytime Soon (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Germany rebounded last month, rising to plus 0.1% year-over-year in May, from minus 0.1% in April. We think the economy has escaped the claws of deflation, for now. Household energy prices fell 5.7% year-over-year in May, up from a 6.3% decline in April, and the rate will rise further. Base effects and higher oil prices point to a surge in energy inflation in the next three-to-six months.

13 Mar 2020 LatAm in Peril as the Virus Drives Markets into Panic Mode (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and policymakers are bracing for a more dramatic and longer virus-led downturn than initially expected.

14 Feb 2020 Banxico Cuts Rates, Brazil's Domestic Demand Eased in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.

14 Feb 2020 Eurozone Q4 GDP Growth will be Revised Down Today, to Zero (Publication Centre)

We've already raised a red flag for today's second Q4 GDP estimate in the Eurozone, but for good measure, we repeat the argument here.

14 February 2018 Elections and Economic Turnaround Key Factors to Watch in Colombia (Publication Centre)

Legislative and presidential elections in Colombia will be held on March 11 and May 27, respectively, with a run-off presidential election on June 17 if no candidate secures more than half the votes.

14 February 2018 Japanese PPI Inflation Should Head Higher Again, hit by Energy Prices (Publication Centre)

Japanese headline PPI inflation will edge higher in coming months as last year's rise in oil prices feeds through. But inflation in manufacturing goods, excluding processing, is microscopic and should soon roll over as pipeline pressures wane.

14 December 2018 Japan's Trade Deficit will soon Diminish, but not in November (Publication Centre)

Data released earlier this week show that Japan's current account surplus continued its downtrend in October, falling to ¥1,404B, on our seasonal adjustment, from ¥1,494B in September.

14 Apr 2020 Much Better Money Data from China... Better Late than Never (Publication Centre)

We're doing a wrap-up of the data that were released last week while we were away, and the Chinese numbers were both a hit and a miss.

13 March 2019 China's Slowing Services Inflation Sheds Light on the Labour Market (Publication Centre)

Data over the weekend revealed a further slowdown in China's CPI inflation, to 1.5% in February, from 1.7% in January.

13 May 2020 Punchy Money Data for April Keep China's Recovery Hopes Alive (Publication Centre)

China's money data continued to improve in April, bolstering the economy's recovery prospects.

13 Nov 2019 Chile's Protests Have Trashed the Local Market: will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

Chile's market volatility and high political risk continue, despite government efforts to ease the crisis.

13 November 2018 PPI in Japan has Peaked, but the BoJ has Other Concerns in Mind (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation has finally started to soften, after having increased steadily from 2.0% in April, and holding steady at 3.0% in Q3.

12 Feb 2020 COPOM Closed the Door to Further Easing, Mexico's Industry Struggles (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the February 4-to-5 COPOM meeting, at which Brazil's central bank, the BCB, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 25bp to 4.25%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué.

12 April 2019 Inflation in China will Breach the 3% Target, but H2 is a Different Story (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in China surged to a five-month high of 2.3% in March, from 1.5% in February.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

10 Feb 2020 Lack of Chinese Trade Data Invites Speculation... so Here Goes (Publication Centre)

China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data

10 Feb 2020 Temporary Shocks Causes Volatility in LatAm Inflation, Trends are Stable (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico and Chile last week reinforced our view that interest rates will remain on hold, or be cut, over the coming meetings. The recent fall in oil prices, and the weakness of domestic demand, will offset recent volatility caused by the FX sell-off, driven mostly by the coronavirus story.

10 Jan 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade will Improve Gradually this Year (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite the broader challenges facing LatAm and the global economy in 2019.

1 October 2018 First Round of Brazil's Elections on Sunday, the Outcome is Uncertain (Publication Centre)

The first round of Brazil's presidential elections will take place this Sunday, followed by a probable runoff on October 28.

1 Nov 2019 The Easing Cycle in Brazil is Nearly Over, Chile's Public Chaos Continues (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 5.00%, as expected.

1 August 2017 Chinese Second Half Looking Increasingly Stagflationary (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.

1 February 2019 It's Official China will Enter PPI Deflation, Though Only Briefly (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed in January, ticking up to 49.5, from 49.4 in December, with the output and new orders sub-indices largely stable.

1 June 2020 The Brazilian Economy Collapsed in Q1, but Much Worse is to Come (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have started to reveal a story of horror and misery in the Brazilian economy.

1 March 2019 Slightly Disappointing Brazil Q4 GDP Data Point to Greater Slack (Publication Centre)

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% quarter- on-quarter in Q4, from a downwardly-revised 0.5% in Q3.

10 Jan 2020 CPI and PPI in China are at Turning Points, but Policy won't Change (Publication Centre)

The year-long surge in CPI inflation in China will soon end.

10 July 2020 The End is in Sight for PPI Deflation in China, to the Relief of Factories (Publication Centre)

The downward pressure from factory-gate prices on Chinese industrial profits will continue to ease in the coming months.

11 June 2020 Promising Money Data Imply the PBoC can Take a Step Back (Publication Centre)

The People's Bank of China likely will be more than content with the latest money and credit data, to the point where it probably won't see the need to cut interest rates further anytime soon.

11 Mar 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Started Q1 Strongly, but it won't Last (Publication Centre)

This has been a very complicated week for LatAm policymakers, who are particularly uneasy about the performance of the FX market.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

11 June 2019 Chile's Central Bank Folded in the Face of the Trade War (Publication Centre)

The border security agreement between the U.S. and Mexico has strengthened hopes that the Sino- U.S. trade war will end soon.

11 Feb 2020 Phase One Trade Deal Trumped the Virus in China's January PPI (Publication Centre)

The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.

10 Mar 2020 Heightened Uncertainty Persists in EM, as Oil Prices Continue to Fall (Publication Centre)

Most countries in LatAm are now fighting a complex global environment; a viral outbreak of biblical proportions and plunging oil prices, after last week's OPEC fiasco.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

11 Feb 2020 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Upturn, but Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

13 Dec 2019 Brazil's Central Bank Leaves the Door Open to a Final Rate Cut in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 50bp to 4.50% on Wednesday night.

18 February 2019 Chinese New Year Effects Evident in January's Money and Price Data (Publication Centre)

Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.

18 June 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains Resilient but External Risks are Drag (Publication Centre)

Colombia has been one of LatAm's outperformers this year.

18 May 2020 GDP in Brazil and Colombia to Fall Even Further in Q2, Q3 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed an appalling end to the first quarter for the Brazilian and Colombian economies. In Brazil, the March IBC-Br, a monthly proxy for GDP, plunged 5.9% month-to-month, close to expectations.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

18 Dec 2019 Banxico to Cut Rates Even Further, but the COPOM is Almost Done (Publication Centre)

Banxico will meet tomorrow, and we expect Mexican policymakers to cut the main interest rate by 25bp, to 7.25%.

17 Mar 2020 A Savage Toll on LatAm's Economy, Prospects Have Turned Bleak (Publication Centre)

Latin American markets and policymakers are bracing for another complicated week, after the second, and more aggressive, Fed emergency move over the weekend.

17 May 2017 With the MXN Stable, Banxico Likely Won't Hike this Week (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank likely will pause its monetary tightening on Thursday, keeping the main rate at 6.5%. A hike this week would follow five consecutive increases, totalling 350bp since December 2015, when policymakers were first overwhelmed by the MXN's sell-off.

17 November 2017 Commodities Tailwind Helping Andean Economies to Recover (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were relatively strong, but mostly driven by the primary sectors; consumption remains sluggish compared to previous standards.

17 October. 2016 Eurozone Car Registrations Slowed Significantly in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Growth in new EZ car sales remained brisk last month, growth slowed in Q3. New registrations rose 9.4% year-over-year in September, marginally lower than the 9.6% increase in August. Growth in France fell most, sliding to 2.5% from 6.7% in August, but sales in Germany picked up to 9.4%, from 8.3%.

18 Oct 2019 Argentina's Presidential Vote will Restore the Dire Kirchner Dynasty (Publication Centre)

Argentinians are heading to the polls on Sunday October 27 and will likely turn their backs on the current president, Mauricio Macri.

19 Aug 2019 The Intensification of the Trade War Forces Rate Cuts in LatAm (Publication Centre)

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in particular, the most recent chapter of the global trade war.

2 February 2018 The Best Days of the Manufacturing Sector's Revival Lie in the Past (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector appears to have started the new year on a weaker note. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.3 in January--its lowest level since June--from 56.2 in December.

2 January 2018 While we Were Out... (Publication Centre)

Most of the data were consistent with the idea that fourth quarter growth will be a two-part story, with real strength in domestic final demand partly offset by substantial drags from net foreign trade and inventories.

2 July 2019 The Sino-U.S. Trade Truce is Good News for LatAm, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The truce in trade relations between the U.S. and China, agreed at the G20, is good news for LatAm, at least for now.

2 June 2020 BanRep Cuts Rates as the Colombian Labour Market Collapses (Publication Centre)

Colombian policymakers on Friday cut the reference rate by 50bp, for a third straight month, to 2.75%.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

19 Feb 2020 Colombia's Economy is Resilient, but External Threats Have Risen (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP report, released last week, confirmed that it was the fastest growing economy in LatAm and everything suggests that it likely will lead the ranking again this year.

19 Mar 2020 The Initial Hit from Covid-19 is Disinflationary, then What? (Publication Centre)

A lot of ink has been spilled over the relative significance of the supply and demand effects of Covid-19, but the short-term story is clear.

19 May 2020 Chile's Q1 GDP Showed Decent Growth, but Q2 will be Trashed (Publication Centre)

The Chilean economy was emerging in early Q1 from the self-inflicted shock from the social unrest in October, but the upturn was interrupted in early- March by the restrictive measures introduced to contain Covid-19.

19 Nov 2019 Chile's Economy Shifted into Higher Gear in Q3, it will Stall in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q3 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered speed in the third quarter, but this is now in the rearview mirror.

17 June 2020 Further Proof of Severe Contraction in Q2, but Signs of Revival from June (Publication Centre)

Incoming data continue to highlight the severe hit from the pandemic on the real economies of the region, but some surveys and leading indicators are already pointing to a gradual upturn from June onwards.

2 August. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Was Resilient in July, But Only Thanks to Germany (Publication Centre)

Industrial sector activity in the euro area was broadly stable at the beginning of the third quarter, despite the headline dip in the July manufacturing PMI. The Eurozone index fell to 52.0 in July, from 52.8 in June, but if it holds at this level it will be unchanged in Q3 compared with the second quarter.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

15 Nov 2019 Banxico Cut Rates, Brazil's Economy was Firing on all Cylinders in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The two biggest economies in the region have taken divergent paths in recent months, with the economic recovery strengthening in Brazil, but slowing sharply in Mexico.

15 Nov 2019 Chinese Growth Momentum Under Attack from all Angles (Publication Centre)

China's main activity data for October disappointed across the board, strengthening our conviction that the PBoC probably isn't quite done with easing this year.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2 (Publication Centre)

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

15 July 2020 China's Trade Surplus will Continue to Come Back Down to Earth (Publication Centre)

China's trade surplus plunged to $46.4B in June, from $62.9B in May, largely in line with our below- consensus forecast.

17 July 2020 Andes' Economic Prospects Remain Grim, but they will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

May's activity data in the Andes underline the severe hit from the pandemic on economic activity.

14 September 2018 Japan's PPI Inflation will Soon Slow How Sustainable is Capex Growth (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation was unchanged, at 3.0%, in August.

15 Feb. 2016 Central Banks Keep Tightening Bias As USD Still A Concern (Publication Centre)

LatAm economies are being battered by high inflation triggered by currency sell-offs and El Niño supply shocks, so rates have had to rise despite the challenging global environment. Peru's central bank, the BCRP, was forced to increase interest rates by 25bp to 4.25% last Thursday, the fourth hike in six months, as inflation is far above the central bank's 1-to-3% target range.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

15 October 2018 Mexico's Industrial Output will Improve Fundamentals are Strong (Publication Centre)

The industrial production trajectory in Mexico looked strong going into Q3, but Friday's report for August threatens to change that picture.

15 January 2019 China's Trade Data will get Nastier but Expect a V-Shaped Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's December foreign trade numbers were unpleasant, with both exports and imports falling year-over-year, after rising, albeit slowly in November.

17 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus is a Threat to LatAm, But it Economies Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

Over the past 30 years China's role in LatAm and the global economy has increased sharply. Its share of world trade has surged, and its exports have gained significant market share in LatAm.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

16 Dec 2019 Will President Fernández Solve the Debt Crisis in Argentina? (Publication Centre)

The new Argentinian president, Alberto Fernández, will have to make a quick start on the titanic task of cleaning up the economic and social mess left by his predecessor, Mauricio Macri.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

17 Dec 2019 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for 2020 Emerge (Publication Centre)

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been surprisingly strong, despite many domestic and external threats.

17 Jan 2020 Brazil's Black Friday Lifted Sales in November, but Less than Expected (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer resilience in Q3 continued to November, but retail sales undershot market expectations, suggesting that the sector is not yet accelerating and that downside risks remain.

16 Oct 2019 Colombia's Economy Solid in Q3, but Expect a Challenging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Evidence of accelerating economic activity in Colombia continues to mount, in stark contrast with its regional peers and DM economies.

16 October 2017 China's Import Rebound Overstates Domestic Demand Strength (Publication Centre)

The Chinese trade surplus was reasonably stable on our seasonal adjustment in September, falling to $27.5B from $29.7B in August.

16 July 2019 Better External Conditions will Support Brazil's Recovery (Publication Centre)

The ramifications of continued disappointing Asian growth, particularly in China, and its impact on global manufacturing, are especially hard-felt in LatAm.

16 March 2018 Colombia's Consumption and Investment are Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economy defied rising political uncertainty at the start of the year. Retail sales growth jumped to plus 6.2% year-over-year in January, up from -3.8% in December and -1.8% in Q4.

22 January 2019 Commodity Prices are Edging Higher, Improving LatAm's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Recent global developments lead us to intensify our focus on trade in LatAm.

16 February 2017 Should investors rebalance toward EZ equities? (Publication Centre)

Increasingly, we are hearing equity strategists argue that investors should rebalance their portfolios toward EZ equities. On the surface, this looks like sound advice. Commodity prices have exited their depression, factory gate inflation pressures are rising, and global manufacturing output is picking up. These factors tell a bullish story for margins and earnings at large cap industrial and materials equities in the euro area.

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

16 January 2017 Inflation Will Soon Be Marching Upwards in Double Time (Publication Centre)

December's consumer price figures, released tomorrow, likely will reveal that CPI inflation rose to 1.4%--its highest rate since August 2014--from 1.2% in November. Inflation will take even bigger upward steps over the coming months as the anniversary of sharp falls in commodity prices is reached and retailers pass on hefty increases in import prices to consumers.

18 January 2017 The MXN Will Struggle in the Near-Term as Markets Assess Trump (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's inauguration on Friday might mark the beginning of a new era for both the U.S. and the global economy. For commodity-producing Latam countries, such as Chile, Peru and Colombia, attention will shift to Trump's proposed tax reforms, pro-business agenda and planning infrastructure spending. Mexico, on the other hand, will be grappling with Mr. Trump's trade and immigration policies.

18 Mar. 2016 Politics in Focus in South America, But for Different Reasons (Publication Centre)

Colombia and Peru have been among the top performers in LatAm currency markets in recent weeks, both rising above 4% against the dollar. Higher commodity prices seem to be driving the rally as domestic factors haven't changed dramatically.

2 Feb. 2015 Mexico, Colombia and Chile on Hold - Brazil to Keep Tightening (Publication Centre)

Central banks in Mexico and Colombia kept their main interest rates on hold last week, due to recent volatility in the currency markets. Policymakers acknowledged the downside risks to growth, particularly from low commodity prices, but inflation fears, triggered by currency weakness, mean they will not be able to ease if growth slows.

13 April 2017 Core PPI In ation is set to Rise Further, Lifting Core CPI and PCE (Publication Centre)

Today's producer price report for March likely will show a further increase in core goods inflation, which already has risen to 2.0% in February, from 0.2% in the same month last year. The acceleration in the U.S. PPI follows the even more dramatic surge in China's PPI for manufactured goods, which jumped to 6.6% year-over-year in February, from minus 4.9% a year ago. China's PPI is much more sensitive to commodity prices than the U.S. series, so there's very little chance that core U.S. PPI goods inflation will rise to anything like this rate.

17 August. 2015 Andean Central Banks Comfortably on Hold - But FX Still a Worry (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies were in the middle of a perfect storm in the first half of the year, suffering slow recoveries, accelerating inflation and plunging commodity prices and currencies. Under these circumstances it was no surprise that Chile and Peru last week left their main interest rates on hold, close to their lowest levels in four years. The pressure coming from their plummeting currencies, however, means their next moves likely will be rate hikes, but not this year.

1 July. 2016 EZ Inflation Will Edge Higher, Regardless of Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone escaped deflation last month, and we doubt it will return in this business cycle. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in June, up from -0.1% in May; it was lifted chiefly by the gradual recovery in oil and other global commodity prices. Energy prices fell 6.5% in June, up from a 8.4% fall in May, and we think the recovery will accelerate in coming months.

08 Jan. 2016 Colombia's Economic Resilience Will be Challenged - Oil Is Still Key (Publication Centre)

Colombia was likely the fastest growing economy in LatAm in 2015, but it is set to slow this year as monetary and fiscal policy are tightened, and commodity prices remain under pressure during the first half of the year, at least. Economic activity was surprisingly resilient during 2015, especially during the second half, despite the COP's sell-off, high inflation, and subdued consumer confidence.

20 Jan. 2016 Venezuela Is Collapsing - LatAm's Star--Colombia--Is Merely Slowing (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices have started the year under further downward pressure. This is yet more negative news for LatAm, as most of the countries have failed to diversify, instead relying on oil or copper for a large share of exports and, critically, tax revenue. Venezuela is the biggest loser in the region from the oil hit, and, together with the worsening political and economic crisis, it has pushed the country even closer to the verge of collapse, threatening its debt payments. Venezuela's central bank last week released economic data for the first time since 2014, showing that inflation spiralled to 141% and that the economy shrank 4.5% in the first nine months of last year.

03 October. 2016 First Signs of Recovery in Brazilian Private Consumption? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession has been severe, triggered by the downturn in the commodity cycle, which revealed the underlying structural weaknesses in the economy. This set off an acute shock in domestic demand, but it has bottomed in recent months and we now expect a gradual recovery to emerge.

11 Jan. 2016 Brazil's Inflation Hits a 13-Year High - Copom Will Hike Again (Publication Centre)

Last week's events highlighted the seriously challenging global environment for LatAm equities and currencies. Trading in Chinese shares was stopped twice early last week, after falls greater than 7% of the CSI 300 index reverberated around the world. Markets were calmer on Friday but the volatility nevertheless reminded investors that LatAm's economies are floating in rough waters and their resilience will be put to the test again this year. The Fed's policy normalization, the unwinding of the leverage in EM, the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy, low commodity prices and currency depreciation are all real threats across the continent.

11 July 2019 Central Banks in Asia have Less Scope to Respond to PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

PPI inflation in Asia looks set to go from bad to worse, following June's poor numbers, which showed that the weakness in commodity prices is feeding through quicker than expected.

12 Nov. 2015 US Fed is Set to Hike in December, A Worry For LatAm But not a Crisis (Publication Centre)

LatAm economies this year have faced a tough external environment of subdued commodity prices, weaker Chinese growth, the rising USD, and the impending Fed lift-off. At the domestic level, lower public spending, low confidence, and economic policy reform have clashed with above-target inflation, which has prevented central bankers from loosening monetary policy in order to mitigate the external and domestic headwinds. In these challenging circumstances, LatAm growth generally continues to disappoint, though performance is mixed.

11 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Cut to Junk Deepens Its Economic And Financial Woes (Publication Centre)

This year, Brazil has been the perfect example of all the problems faced by EM countries over the last few decades. A long and deep recession, high inflation, fiscal crisis, political chaos, a commodity price crunch, sharp currency depreciation and lack of confidence have all worked together to hammer the economy and investor confidence. These factors all contributed to S&P downgrading Brazil to junk status on Wednesday.

12 Oct. 2015 Fed Minutes Bring Temporary Relief to Besieged LatAm Markets (Publication Centre)

In recent weeks LatAm's currencies and stock markets, together with key commodity prices, have risen as financial markets' expectations for a rate increase by the Fed this year have faded. The COP has risen 8.5% over the last month, the MXN is up 2.5%, the CLP has climbed 1.4% and the PEN has been practically stable against the USD. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting added strength to this market's view, showing that policymakers postponed an interest rate hike as they worried about a global slowdown, particularly China, the strong USD and the impact of the drop in stock prices.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

9 Nov. 2015 Inflation Still a Headache for South American Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Three of the big LatAm economies-- Brazil, Colombia and Chile--released October inflation last week; the data are still showing the pass-through effects of currency depreciation during the first half of the year into prices, though, at different degrees. LatAm currencies have been hit by the weakness in commodity prices and negative sentiment towards EM generally.

9 Dec. 2015 Chile's Imacec Consistent With Weak But Stable GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Economic activity data in Chile have been soft and uneven this year, due mainly to the hit from low commodity prices and uncertainty surrounding the reform agenda, which has badly damaged consumer and investor sentiment. The latest Imacec index, a proxy for GDP, increased just 1.7% year-over-year in October, down from the 2.7% gain in September, and below the 2.2% average seen during Q3 as a whole.

4 May. 2016 The Recent Recovery of LatAm's Currencies Poses No Threat, Yet (Publication Centre)

The recovery of some key commodity prices, policy action in China, and stronger expectations that the U.S. Fed will start hiking rates later during the year, have helped reduce volatility in LatAm financial markets. Oil prices have rise by around 20% year-to-date, iron ore prices are up about 60% and copper has risen by 7%.

Asia Datanote: PPI, China, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Commodity prices continue to pummel Chinese PPI.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 May 2020 (Publication Centre)

Commodity prices continued to pummel Chinese PPI. Normalisation in pork prices will continue to drag CPI inflation down in China;

*May 2017 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

LatAm fundamentals are improving...but shaky commodity markets highlight threats

ASIAN DATA WRAP 29 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Commodity-price pressures dampen Chinese profits' return to growth, Retail sales in Japan recover only modestly in May

21 Jan. 2015 Colombia Will Lose Momentum in 2015, But Don't Panic Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Colombia is one of the few larger economies in Latin America to have enjoyed solid, positive economic growth over the past two years. But lower commodity prices and last year's central bank tightening, to curb high inflation generated by strong growth, have started to become visible in the main economic data.

29 Apr. 2016 Brazil's Central Bank Lays The Groundwork for a Rate Cut in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's macroeconomic scenario is becoming easier to navigate for the central bank. Both actual inflation and expectations are slowing rapidly, as shown in our first chart. And since the March BCB monetary policy meeting, the BRL has appreciated about 10% against the USD, while commodity prices and EM sentiment have also improved markedly.

22 March 2017 Improving Fiscal Picture in the South, but Politics Are Key (Publication Centre)

Growth in South America disappointed last year, but prospects are gradually improving on the back of rising commodity prices and the global manufacturing rebound. These factors will help to ease the region's external and fiscal vulnerabilities, particularly over the second half of the year. On the domestic front, though, the first quarter has proved challenging for some countries, hit by temporary supply factors such as a mine strikes, floods, and wildfires.

22 Dec. 2014 LatAm's Currencies and Economies are Telling Different Stories (Publication Centre)

The sharp drop in commodity prices, especially oil prices, has dampened the growth prospects for most countries in Latin America. But the most damage, so far, is in the currencies, which have dropped sharply.

28 August. 2015 Fed Delay Until December Will Be Positive For LatAm Markets - Just (Publication Centre)

Multiple factors have shaken LatAm financial markets this week. China's market turmoil, commodity price oscillations, currency volatility, and political mayhem in every corner of the region, have all conspired against markets. But market chaos has also driven some central banks to rethink their monetary policy plans. For EM, in particular for LatAm, the stance of the Federal Reserve is key, given the region's close ties to the U.S., and the dollar.

23 Feb. 2015 Mexico's GDP Rising at the Fastest Pace in Two Years - More to Come? (Publication Centre)

Punished by the global economic slowdown depressing commodity prices, the Mexican economy is now making a gradual comeback, thanks to the continuing strength of its main trading partner, increasing public expenditure on key infrastructure projects, and accommodative monetary policy.

26 Oct. 2015 Mexico's Private Consumption is the Key Driver of the Upswing (Publication Centre)

The tumultuous political and economic crises in Brazil continue to feed off each other, grabbing most of the LatAm headlines. Sentiment will remain depressed, and volatility and uncertainty will persist, hampering any real signs of stabilization in the near-term. The Pacific Alliance countries, by contrast, managed to grow at relatively solid rates during the first half of this year, after absorbing the hit from falling commodity prices.

23 Mar. Inflation Still Set to Rebound Soon, Despite Stability in February (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation remained at 0.3% in February, below the consensus, 0.4%, and our own expectation, 0.5%. All the unexpected weakness, however, was in food and core goods prices, and past movements in commodity and import prices suggest that this will be fleeting

24 August. 2015 Better Economic News Fails to Lift LatAm Sentiment - Fx Still Trashed (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy continues to withstand several headwinds, especially the sharp currency depreciation--shown in our first chart--falling commodity prices, and the tough external environment. The country is still one of the economic bright spots in the region, thanks to its resilient domestic demand. June retail sales rose 5.4% year-over-year, well above expectations, and up from 4.1% in May. The underlying trend is positive, averaging 4.8% in the second quarter, well above its 2014 pace.

Guardian - Global firms halt China travel as coronavirus spooks markets (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy

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