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Take China's data dump last Friday with a pinch of salt, as Chinese New Year--CNY-- effects look to have distorted January's money and price data.
We've always said that China's first weapon, should the trade war escalate, is to do nothing and allow the RMB to depreciate.
Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.
In contrast to the strong December trade numbers in France--see here--yesterday's German data were soft. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus dipped to €21.5B in December, from €22.3B in November.
The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.
While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated significantly, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks, weaker economic prospects for DM, and, in particular, the most recent chapter of the global trade war.
German exports flatlined for most of 2018, driving the trade surplus down by 7.3% amid still-solid growth in imports.
The big story in financial markets at the moment is the idea that major global central banks are about to embark on a policy easing cycle.
The escalation in the U.S.-Chinese trade wars has understandably pushed EZ economic data firmly into the background while we have been resting on the beach.
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