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The biggest single surprise in the second quarter GDP report was the unexpected $28B real-terms drop in inventories.
The Fed is on course to hike again in December, with 12 of the 16 FOMC forecasters expecting rates to end the year 25bp higher than the current 2-to-21⁄4%; back in June, just eight expected four or more hikes for the year.
Back on May 14, we argued--see here--that the stars were aligned to generate very strong second quarter GDP growth, perhaps even reaching 5%.
Your correspondent is headed to the beach for the next couple of weeks, with publication resuming on Tuesday, September 4.
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