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36 matches for " chainstore sales":

24 January 2017 Chainstore Sales Growth is Trending Upwards, but not for Long (My Publications)

Now that the holidays are just a distant memory, the distortions they cause in an array of economic data are fading. The problems are particularly acute in the weekly data­ -- mortgage applications, chainstore sales and jobless claims -- because Christmas Day falls on a different day of the week each year.

9 May 2017 Chainstore Sales Rebound Points to Robust Q2 Consumption (My Publications)

If the Redbook chain store sales survey moved consistently in line with the official core retail sales numbers, it would attract a good deal more attention in the markets. We appreciate that brick-and-mortar retailers are losing market share to online sellers, but the rate at which sales are moving to the web is quite steady and easy to accommodate when comparing the Redbook with the official data.

24 August. 2016 Chainstore Sales Still Pitifully Weak, Despite the Dip in the Dollar (My Publications)

We are a bit troubled by the persistent weakness of the Redbook chain store sales numbers. We aren't ready to sound an alarm, but we are puzzled at the recent declines in the rate of growth of same-store sales to new post-crash lows. On the face of it, the recent performance of the Redbook, shown in our first chart, is terrible. Sales rose only 0.5% in the year to July, during which time we estimate nominal personal incomes rose nearly 3%.

09 Mar. 2016 Why are Chainstore Sales so Weak Compared to the Official Data? (My Publications)

The Redbook chain store sales survey used to be our favorite indicator of the monthly core retail sales numbers, but over the past year it has parted company from the official data. Year-over-year growth in Redbook sales has slowed to just 0.7% in February, from a recent peak of 4.6% in the year to December 2014

30 May 2017 Why Don't Markets Take the Fed's Interest Rate Forecasts Seriously? (My Publications)

Markets expect the Fed will fail to follow through on its current intention to raise rates twice more this year and three times next year. Part of this skepticism reflects recent experience.

27 June 2017 Flat Capex Orders won't Stop the Labor Market Tightening Further (My Publications)

The flat trend in core capital goods orders continued through May, according to yesterday's durable goods orders report. We are not surprised.

26 April 2017 The Surge in Spending on Building Materials Can't Last Forever (My Publications)

Across all the major economic data, perhaps the biggest weather distortions late last year and in the early part of the year were in the retail sales numbers, specifically, the building materials component. Sales rocketed at a 16.5% annualized rate in the first quarter, the biggest gain since the spring of 2014, following a 10.2% increase in the fourth quarter of last year.

23 Mar. 2016 Mortgage Lending Conditions Improving - Where are the Sales? (My Publications)

Further evidence emerged yesterday in support of our view that mortgage lending conditions are easing. The monthly mortgage origination report from Ellie Mae, Inc., a private mortgage processing firm, shows average credit scores for both successful and unsuccessful loan applications continue to trend downwards--though the latter rose marginally in February--while loans are closing much more quickly than in the recent past.

23 August 2017 New Home Sales set for Cycle Highs, but Only Temporarily (My Publications)

The level of new home sales is likely to hit new cycle highs over the next few months, with a decent chance that today's July report will show sales at their highest level since late 2007.

30 November. 2016 ADP Likely to Signal Decent Payroll Growth (My Publications)

The November ADP employment report today likely will show private payrolls rose by about 180K. We have no reason to think that the trend in payroll growth has changed much in recent months, though the official data do appear to be biased to the upside in the fourth quarter, probably as a result of seasonal adjustment problems triggered by the crash of 2008. We can't detect any clear seasonal fourth quarter bias in the ADP numbers.

24 May 2017 FOMC Minutes will Reinforce Skepticism over the Q1 Slowdown (My Publications)

The minutes of the May 2/3 FOMC meeting today should add some color to policymakers' blunt assertion that "The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term."

6 July 2017 Downside Risk for June ADP Jobs, but Official Data Will be Stronger (My Publications)

Today's June ADP employment report likely will undershoot the 183K consensus, but we then expect the official payroll number tomorrow to surprise to the upside.

8 September. 2016 Claims, JOLTS, and Sales Don't Support the Grim ISM Message (My Publications)

We argued yesterday that the steep declines in the ISM surveys in August, both manufacturing and services, likely were one-time events, triggered by a combination of weather events, seasonal adjustment issues and sampling error. These declines don't chime with most other data.

9 August. 2016 NFIB Survey Signals Better Non-Oil Business Capex as Soon as Q3 (My Publications)

The headline NFIB index of small business activity and sentiment in July likely will be little changed from June--we expect a half-point dip, while the consensus forecast is for a repeat of June's 94.5--but what we really care about is the capex intentions componen

US 15 September 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, Hefty Storm-Induced Increases Ahead? (My Publications)

The run of soft core CPI numbers is over. The average 0.18% increase over the past two months probably is a good indication of the underlying trend -- the prints would have been close to this pace in both months had it not been for wild swings in the lodging component -- and the other one-time oddities of recent months' have faded.

7 September 2017 Jobless Claims will Rocket After Harvey, but Timing is Tricky (My Publications)

The jobless claims numbers today likely will mark the end of the calm before the storm effect, even though the data cover the week ended September 1, and Harvey hit on August 26.

6 September 2017 Harvey set to Distort Chainstore, MBA Data Today, but no hit on ISM (My Publications)

Last Friday's August auto sales numbers were overshadowed by the below-consensus payroll report and the six-year high in the ISM manufacturing index, but they are the first data to reflect the impact of Hurricane Harvey.

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (My Publications)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

22 November. 2016 Soybean Exports Still High, but Falling Sharply (My Publications)

Surging soybean exports contributed 0.9 percentage points, gross, to third quarter GDP growth, though the BEA said that this was "mostly" offset by falling inventories of wholesale non-durable goods.

31 May 2017 A Consumer Rebound is Underway, but Watch out for Healthcare Costs (My Publications)

In the wake of April's 0.2% increase in real consumers' spending, and the upward revisions to the first quarter numbers, we now think that second quarter spending is on course to rise at an annualized rate of about 3.5%.

21 June 2017 Home Sales set for new Cycle Highs, but not in May (My Publications)

Over the past couple of weeks, the number of applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase have reached their highest level since late 2010, when activity was boosted by the impending expiration of a time-limited tax credit for homebuyers.

13 June 2017 NFIB Headline Likely to Decay, but Capex and Jobs Readings are Strong (My Publications)

Under normal circumstances, we can predict movements in the headline NFIB index from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released a day ahead of the official employment report, and, hence, about 10 days before the full NFIB survey appears.

14 July 2017 Core CPI Inflation Won't Fall Forever, but When Will the Rebound Come? (My Publications)

Today brings a huge wave of data, but most market attention will be on the June CPI, following the run of unexpectedly soft core readings over the past three months.

13 January 2017 Will Consumers' Spending Rise in Line with the Sentiment Surveys? (My Publications)

December's retail sales numbers are the most important of the year for retailers, but they don't necessarily tell us anything about the future prospects for consumers' spending or the broad economy. The December 2016 numbers, however, might be different, because they capture consumers' behavior in the first full month after the election.

12 September 2017 NFIB Labor Indicators Still Very Strong, Despite August Dips (My Publications)

The key labor market numbers from the monthly NFIB survey of small businesses are released ahead of the main report, due today.

10 January 2017 The Core Inventory Cycle is Turning, but Q4 Data Likely Won't Show it (My Publications)

For some time now we have argued that collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was the source of most of the softening of activity in the manufacturing and wholesaling sectors last year.

12 May 2017 Core CPI Inflation to Mean-Revert After the Shocking March Drop (My Publications)

The April CPI report today will be watched even more closely than usual, after the surprise 0.12% month-to-month fall in the March core index. The biggest single driver of the dip was a record 7.0% plunge in cellphone service plan prices, reflecting Verizon's decision to offer an unlimited data option.

21 March 2017 The Debt Ceiling is Back, but no Crisis Likely Until the Fall (My Publications)

The federal debt ceiling was re-imposed last week, with no fanfare, and no reaction in the markets. All eyes were focussed instead on the Fed's rate hike and Chair Yellen's press conference.

16 May 2017 Manufacturing is Recovering, Despite the Hard and Soft Data Gap (My Publications)

The over-hyped mystery of the gap between the hard and soft data in the industrial economy has largely resolved itself in recent months.

20 June 2017 As the Balance Sheet Shrinks, how can we Assess the Fed's Stance? (My Publications)

The initial pace of the Fed's balance sheet run-off, which we expect to start in October, will be very low. At first, the balance sheet will shrink by only $10B per month, split between $6B Treasuries and $4B mortgages.

21 June. 2016 Monetary Policy Testimony Won't Signal a Change in Fed Thinking (My Publications)

Back in the dim and increasingly distant past the semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony--previously known as the Humphrey-Hawkins--used to be something of an event. Today's Testimony, however, is most unlikely to change anyone's opinion of the likely pace and timing of Fed action.

17 January 2017 December Data Understates Core Retail Sales (My Publications)

On the face of it, the December core retail sales numbers were something of a damp squib. The headline numbers were lifted by an incentive-driven jump in auto sales and the rise in gas prices, but our measure of core sales--stripping out autos, gas and food--was dead flat. One soft month doesn't prove anything, and core sales rose at a 3.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as a whole.

2 May 2017 The Rebounding Auto Sales to Signal the Start of a Q2 Consumer Rebound (My Publications)

March auto sales were much weaker than expected, falling by 5.5% month-to-month to a 25-month low, 16.5M. The average for the previous six months was 17.8M. The sudden drop in March likely was driven in large part by the huge snowstorm which tracked across the Northeast in the middle week of the month, so we think a decent rebound in April is a good bet.

19 September 2017 Housing Takes a Modest Hurricane Hit, so far, More to Come? (My Publications)

The September NAHB survey, released yesterday, shows, that the housing market took a knock from the hurricanes but the damage, so far at least, appears to be contained.

19 Apr. 2016 Weaker Dollar Will Boost Q2 Retail Sales, but not March Consumption (My Publications)

If we're right in our view that the strength of the dollar has been a major factor depressing the rate of growth of nominal retail sales, the weakening of the currency since January should soon be reflected in stronger-looking numbers. In real terms--which is what matters for GDP and, ultimately, the lab or market--nothing will change, but perceptions are important and markets have not looked kindly on the dollar-depressed sales data.

7 March 2017 Why has Spending not Faltered After Tax Refunds were Delayed? (My Publications)

The delay in the processing of personal income tax refunds this year appears not to have had any adverse impact on retail sales, so far. Indeed, the Redbook chainstore sales survey suggests that sales have accelerated over the past few weeks.

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