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24 May. Sterling's Rally After a "Bremain" Vote Will Fall Flat (Publication Centre)

Sterling is well below its $1.57 average of the last five years, despite rallying this month to about $1.45, from a low of $1.38 in late February. But hopes that cable will bounce back to its previous levels, after a vote to remain in the E .U., likely will be dashed.

13 May. MPC Signals Bremain Rate Hike, and Sounds Cool on Brexit Cut (Publication Centre)

The MPC's "Super Thursday" releases suggest that the Committee won't wait long to raise interest rates after a vote to stay in the E.U., which remains the most likely outcome of June's referendum. Meanwhile, we saw nothing to support markets' view that the MPC would ease policy in the wake of a Brexit.

23 May. Is it Premature to Relax About Brexit Risk? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rebounded last week and the probability of a Brexit, implied by betting markets, fell from 30% to 20%. The gap between cable and interest rate expectations, which opened up at the start of this year, appears to have closed completely, as our first chart shows. Sterling's rally in April quickly ran out of steam, but the evidence that support for "Bremain" has risen recently is persuasive.

10 May. Hold Your Nerve on Brexit Risk, Despite Troubling Polls (Publication Centre)

With just over six weeks to go, opinion polls continue to suggest that the E.U. referendum will be extremely close. Noisy interventions in the public debate from the Treasury, independent international bodies, President Obama, and from the Prime Minister again today have had no discernible positive impact on the support for "Bremain" relative to "Brexit"

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

23 June. The Polls are Wrong to Suggest Brexit is a 50:50 Risk (Publication Centre)

On the eve of the referendum, opinion polls continue to suggest that the result is essentially a coin toss. The latest online polls point to a neck-and-neck race, while telephone polls point to a narrow Remain victory.

23 June. 2016 What Would Happen in the Eurozone if the U.K. Left the EU? (Publication Centre)

People across Europe are growing wary over the failure of governments to foster economic security since the 2008 crisis. Their conclusion increasingly is that the EU is to blame, so their support for EU-sceptic, and even right-wing nationalist, parties has increased accordingly.

24 June. Initial Thoughts on the U.K.'s Shock Brexit Vote (Publication Centre)

Britain's shock vote to leave the E.U. has unleashed a wave of economic and political uncertainty that likely will drive the U.K. into recession.

27 May. Q1 GDP Just the Beginning of a Prolonged Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery has lost momentum and revealed that growth would have ground to a halt without consumers. GDP growth likely will slow further in Q2, as Brexit risk undermines business investment.

4 May. The MPC Won't Cut Rates to Alleviate the Manufacturing Slump (Publication Centre)

The nosedive in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in April provides an early sign that GDP growth is likely to slow even further in the second quarter. The MPC, however, looks set to keep its powder dry. We continue to think that the next move in interest rates will be up, towards the end of this year.

2 June. Brexit Risk Looms Large Over Credit Growth (Publication Centre)

Even an ardent Brexiteer could not deny that uncertainty about the outcome of the E.U. referendum is subduing bank lending. The Bank of England's preferred measure of bank lending--M4 lending excluding intermediate other financial corporations, or OFCs--fell by 0.1% month-to-month in April.

13 June. 2016 Banxico's Dilemma: Help the Recovery or Support the MXN? (Publication Centre)

Markets are still discounting Banxico rate increases in the near term, despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is under control. Unless the MXN goes significantly above 18.7 per USD in the near term, or activity accelerates, we see little scope for rate increases until after the Fed hikes. After May's soft U.S. payrolls, and in light of the economic and financial risk posed by the U.K. referendum, we think a hike this week is unlikely.

1 June. How to Read the Tea Leaves Before and On Referendum Night (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall yesterday to $1.45 from $1.46 after the release of online and phone opinion polls from ICM both showing a three percentage point lead for "Leave" over "Remain" underlines that it not a formality that the U.K. will be a full member of the E.U. this time next month.

15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)

Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.

16 June. Rising Wage Growth Points to a Rate Hike Before Year End (Publication Centre)

The MPC almost certainly will keep interest rates on hold today and likely won't give a strong steer on the outlook for policy in the minutes of its meeting, which are released at mid-day. On the whole, surveys of economic activity have been weak, indicating that GDP growth has slowed sharply in the second quarter.

20 June. A Final Look at Post-Referendum Paths for Sterling (Publication Centre)

One way or the other, the post-referendum lurch in sterling will make its recent gyrations pale by comparison. If the U.K. votes to remain in the E.U.--as we continue to expect--then sterling likely will jump up to about $1.48 immediately afterwards. As our first chart shows, the gap between sterling and the level implied by the current difference between overnight index swap rates in the U.S. and Britain is currently about $0.05.

21 June. 2016 Monetary Policy Testimony Won't Signal a Change in Fed Thinking (Publication Centre)

Back in the dim and increasingly distant past the semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony--previously known as the Humphrey-Hawkins--used to be something of an event. Today's Testimony, however, is most unlikely to change anyone's opinion of the likely pace and timing of Fed action.

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