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15 February 2018 One Outsized Core CPI Gain does not Make a Trend, it Looks Like Noise (Publication Centre)

The January core CPI numbers are consistent with our view that the U.S. faces bigger upside inflation risks than markets and the Fed believe.

14 July 2020 The Downdraft in the Core CPI Likely is Over, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

We have no argument with the FOMC's view that the Covid crisis is a disinflationary event, but the run of three straight outright month-to-month declines in the core CPI likely came to an end in June.

19 July 2019 Talk of Downside Inflation Risk will be Muted by September (Publication Centre)

The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.

24 Aug 2020 Second Covid Wave Continues to Ease, but Victory Still a Long Way Off (Publication Centre)

While we were out, new U.S. Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to fall steadily, and deaths have now peaked.

9 July 2020 Expect Chaotic Auto Sales and Prices, but the Market is Improving (Publication Centre)

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the auto market was calamitous.

3 Sep 2020 Follow the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE to see Underlying Inflation (Publication Centre)

The wild gyrations in the core inflation numbers in recent months have made it hard to keep track of the underlying story.

13 May 2019 Inflation in Rents and Other Services is Rising, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The core CPI inflation rate rose in April to 2.1% from 2.0%, thanks to unfavorable rounding, despite the below consensus 0.14% month-to-month print.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos (Publication Centre)

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

10 Oct 2019 A Fourth Straight 0.3% Core CPI is Unlikely, but Far From Impossible (Publication Centre)

After three straight 0.3% increases in the core CPI, we are in agreement with the consensus view that September's report, due today, will revert to the 0.2% trend.

10 June 2020 No Formal Yield Curve Control Announcement Today. Probably. (Publication Centre)

We would be surprised, but not astonished, if the Fed were to announce a shift to explicit yield curve control at today's meeting.

11 Dec 2019 Most of the Risk to November's Core CPI is to the Upside (Publication Centre)

We see clear upside risk to the inflation data due before the FOMC announcement, from three main sources.

11 January 2019 Downside Risk to December's CPI Watch Used Auto Prices Airline Fares (Publication Centre)

The CPI report due today will be released on schedule, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, remains open during the partial government shutdown.

11 Sept 2020 Upside Risk for the August CPI, Used Car Prices are the Key Threat (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August report.

10 April 2019 Core Inflation is Steady Expect Mean Reversion in the March Core (Publication Centre)

Core CPI inflation has been 2.1-to-2.2% year-over- year for the past seven months, a remarkably stable run which likely will persist for a few more months.

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