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The January core CPI numbers are consistent with our view that the U.S. faces bigger upside inflation risks than markets and the Fed believe.
We have no argument with the FOMC's view that the Covid crisis is a disinflationary event, but the run of three straight outright month-to-month declines in the core CPI likely came to an end in June.
The spike in the May core CPI, and its likely echo in the core PCE, won't stop the Fed easing at the end of this month.
While we were out, new U.S. Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continued to fall steadily, and deaths have now peaked.
The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the auto market was calamitous.
The wild gyrations in the core inflation numbers in recent months have made it hard to keep track of the underlying story.
The core CPI inflation rate rose in April to 2.1% from 2.0%, thanks to unfavorable rounding, despite the below consensus 0.14% month-to-month print.
The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.
After three straight 0.3% increases in the core CPI, we are in agreement with the consensus view that September's report, due today, will revert to the 0.2% trend.
We would be surprised, but not astonished, if the Fed were to announce a shift to explicit yield curve control at today's meeting.
We see clear upside risk to the inflation data due before the FOMC announcement, from three main sources.
The CPI report due today will be released on schedule, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the data, remains open during the partial government shutdown.
In the wake of the surprise 0.6% July surge in the core CPI, the biggest increase since January 1991--most forecasters look for mean reversion to 0.2% in today's August report.
Core CPI inflation has been 2.1-to-2.2% year-over- year for the past seven months, a remarkably stable run which likely will persist for a few more months.
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