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After five straight undershoots to consensus, with the core CPI averaging monthly gains of just 0.05%, investors are asking hard questions about the Fed's belief -- and ours -- that core inflation is headed towards 2% in the not-too-distant future.
CPI inflation surprised to the downside in April, falling to 0.3% from 0.5% in March. Both the consensus and ourselves expected the rate to hold steady. Nearly all of the surprise, however, was in airfares and clothing inflation, which were depressed, to a greater extent than we anticipated, by the shift in the timing of Easter and bad weather, respectively.
Our base case forecast has core PCE inflation at 1.9% from November 2018 through July this year.
The near-term U.S. inflation outlook is benign, but it is not without risk.
We have no real argument with the consensus forecasts for the January CPI, with the headline likely to rise by 0.3%, with the core up 0.2%.
Today's consumer prices figures likely will show that CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in November, from 3.0% in October.
It's hard to know what will stop the correction in the stock market, but we're pretty sure that robust economic data--growth, prices and/or wages--over the next few weeks would make things worse.
The continued modest rate of increase in unit labor costs makes it hard to worry much about the near-term outlook for core inflation.
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