Search Results: 413
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org.
413 matches for " Korea":
Korea's GDP report for the second quarter was a huge let-down.
Korea's manufacturing PMI fell for a fourth straight month in April, dropping to 41.6, which is the lowest reading since January 2009.
Headline GDP growth in Korea was revised down, to a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, from 0.7% in the preliminary report.
Korean GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, erasing the 1.3% jump at the end of last year. The pullback was sharper than we expected, with the cliff-edge drop in private consumption, in particular, catching us by surprise.
The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.
Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.
Korean hard data for December, so far, leave the door ajar for the possibility that the Bank of Korea will roll back its November hike sooner than we expect.
Korean real GDP growth--to be published on Thursday--should bounce back in Q1 to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, after the 0.2% drop in Q4.
Korea's preliminary GDP report for Q3 will be released tomorrow.
Korea's preliminary Q4 GDP report was stronger than nearly all forecasters, including ourselves, expected.
Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Korea's fledgling export recovery seemingly hit a roadblock this month.
Yesterday's partial trade data for Korea showed that the downturn in exports softened to -13.3% year-over-year in August from -13.8% in July, based on the 20-day gauge.
Tomorrow's Q1 GDP report for Korea has a wider spread of forecasts than usual, reflecting Covid-19's uneven hit to the economy.
PPI inflation in Korea slowed sharply in October, to a five-month low of 2.2%, from 2.7% in September.
Following the publication of Korea's preliminary Q4 GDP report last month--see here--we said the consensus-beating print would be susceptible to downgrades, unless the economy had a miraculous end to 2018
The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.
GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.
Korea's trade figures for the first 20 days of November, published yesterday, gave the first real glimpse in a long time of how its exporters are truly performing.
The latest trade data from Korea underscore the unfortunate timing of the resumption of the U.S.-China tit-for-tat tariff war.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.75%, at its first meeting of the year.
Korean GDP unexpectedly declined in Q4, for the first time since the financial crisis, falling 0.2% quarter-on-quarter after a 1.5% jump in Q3.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea will tomorrow hold its final meeting for the year.
Korean industrial production surprised to the upside in August, according to data released yesterday.
The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of U.S.-China tensions.
The picture for Korean quarterly real GDP growth in Q4 was unchanged in the final reading, published yesterday, showing a contraction of 0.2%, after the 1.4% jump in Q3.
Don't expect a pretty picture when Korea's Q1 GDP report appears in the last week of April.
The Bank of Korea finally pulled the trigger, raising its base rate to 1.75% at its meeting on Friday. After a year of will-they-or-won't-they, five of the Monetary Policy Board's seven members voted to add another 25 basis points to their previous hike twelve months ago.
Korea's economy is shaping up largely in line with our expectations for the second quarter, with private consumption recovering, but exports and investment tanking.
The end of Korea's first Covid-19 wave, coupled with the government's economic support measures, has been a boon for the retail industry.
Korean trade ended the year strongly, salvaging what was shaping up as a dull fourth quarter for the economy.
Korea's government is mulling a further tightening of borrowing rules to mitigate the risks of an overheated property market.
The recovery of consumer confidence in Korea remains undeterred by the lingering risk of a second wave.
It looks as though business and consumer confidence in Korea has brushed off the economic threat of the second Covid-19 wave.
Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, after GDP fell 0.2% in Q4. Growth in Q4 was hit by distortions, thanks to a long holiday in October, which normally falls in September.
Korea's GDP growth in Q3 was a miss. Quarter- on-quarter growth was unchanged at 0.6%, below the consensus for a 0.8% rise.
Korea's final GDP report for the third quarter confirmed the economy's growth slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following the 1.0% bounce-back in Q2.
The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.
Consumer confidence in Korea plummeted in September for the first time since its first wave of Covid-19 earlier this year, in line with our view that the August increase was a fluke.
Korean real GDP growth slumped in Q2 to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.1% in Q1, as both the main drivers--construction and exports--ran out of steam simultaneously. Construction investment grew by 1.0%, sharply slower than the 6.8% in Q1 and contributing just 0.2% to GDP growth in Q2, a turnaround from the 1.1 percentage point contribution in the first quarter.
Korean real GDP growth rebounded to 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.6% in Q2. The main driver was exports, with government consumption also popping, and private consumption was a little faster than we were expecting.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted unanimously last week to keep the benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%.
Korea's trade data have been extremely volatile over the past two months, thanks to distortions caused by last year's odd holiday calendar.
Korean credit markets have begun tentatively to recover after the rise in global interest rates at the end of last year.
Construction accounted for the entire 1.1% quarter-to- quarter expansion of the Korean economy in Q1, but the sector is now set to slow.
Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.
Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.
When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".
Korea's labour market took an overdue breather in March after an extremely volatile start to the year.
This week's main economic data from Korea--the last batch before the BoK meets on the 16th--missed consensus expectations, further fuelling speculation that it will cut rates for a second time, after pausing in August.
The Board of the Bank of Korea will meet again in less than a week's time for this year's penultimate meeting.
In one line: Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1
The Korean unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7% in November from October's 3.6%. Young graduates--the usual suspects--accounted for most of the rise.
The recovery in Korean exports--a key leading indicator for global trade--appears to have stalled in August.
A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.
Korea's final GDP report for Q4 was little changed, in the end.
Korean exports continued to fall year-over-year in April, but the story isn't as bleak as the headlines suggest.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.50%.
The past two days have seen a slew of data that should keep the hawks in the Bank of Korea at bay during the Board's meeting at the end of this month.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.
Korea's unemployment rate fell for a second straight month in October, inching down to 3.9%, from 4.0% in September.
In one line: Better, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause
In one line: Lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. knock out exports
In one line: Expect one more cut, as the BoK mulls implicit forms of QE and YCC
In one line: Hit from oil has just started; deflation is imminent.
In one line: Flattered by Chuseok holiday effects.
In one line: It's a V, but not a real one.
In one line: The Board held, but Governor Lee's comments suggest it should've cut.
In one line: A grim start to Q2, as developed world demand collapses
In one line: Expect one more cut, as the BoK mulls implicit forms of QE and YCC
In one line: Flattered by Chuseok holiday effects.
In one line: Flattered by Chuseok effects.
The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.6 in August, from July's 50.8. This clashed with the increase in the official PMI, though the moves in both indexes were modest.
After strong real GDP growth in Q1, China commentators called the peak, claiming that growth would slow for the rest of 2017.
Brace yourselves; GDP growth forecasts are being slashed left and right, as our colleagues take stock of the economic damage Covid-19 likely will inflict in the U.S. and across Europe, where outbreaks and containment measures have escalated significantly.
Japan's unadjusted current account surplus fell sharply in November, to ¥757B, from ¥1,310B in October.
China last week banned unlicensed micro-lending and put a ceiling on borrowing costs for the sector, in an effort to curtail the spiralling of consumer credit.
In one line: Ignore the headline; the details weren't that bad.
In one line: Ignore the headline, the recovery remains on track.
In one line: The lagged oil drag is now receding
In one line: Not a sign of an economic turnaround.
In one line: The Board held, but Governor Lee's comments suggest it should've cut.
In one line: Expect a bumpy recovery in Q3
GDP data for Q2 are due July 26; we expect the report to show a marginal dip in growth, to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.0% in Q1.
Korean IP was due a bounce after February's sourcing woes... that will pale in comparison to the April hit.
The delayed recovery of private manufacturers suggests upside risks to China's Q3 GDP. Extension of Japan's furlough scheme will only delay--not reverse--the virus hit to jobs. Japan's already-grim Q2 GDP report looks set for a downgrade next week. Korea's Q2 GDP receives a modest upgrade, but all eyes are on the second-wave threat to Q3. Ignore the headline, Korea's export recovery remained on track in August. Korean manufacturers are shrugging off the second wave, for now.
Japan's stable unemployment rate belies underlying weakness. Tokyo energy inflation turns the corner. Sales tax preparations breathe life into Japanese production in May... if only temporarily. Korea's IP plunge in May shows why Japan can't rest on its laurels.
Japanese labour data show early signs of virus hit. Japan's industrial production in a slow recovery... pre-virus. Japan's retail sales still trying to make up lost ground after the tax hike. Tokyo prices already showing signs of virus hit? Korean industrial production wobbles before virus hit.
Ignore the nasty 20-day print... Korea's export slump has bottomed out
Japan's PMI report bodes well for Q3, but points to headwinds thereafter. PPI deflation in Korea is unlikely to get worse than the August drop.
Japan's firms are done hiring. Tokyo inflation points to uptick in national gauge, driven by non-core effects. Japan's start to Q4 goes from bad to worse, as industrial production tanks in October. Still far too soon to call time on Korea's IP recovery, despite the October setback. Governor Lee attempts to manage 2020 expectations, as the BoK stands pat after the October cut.
Outright CPI deflation in Tokyo is just around the corner. Korea's weak industrial production report for August was just a blip
Marginally stronger Q4 GDP growth in Korea implies a more painful Q1 virus hit, CPI inflation in Korea should continue to slide, as the slump in oil prices starts to feed through, Remember the BoJ never officially abandoned it's ¥80T JGB purchase target
Japan: Monetary base growth slowed to 2.8% y/y in August, from 3.7% in July. Bloomberg reports no consensus, Korea: Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% q/q, from 1.1% in the preliminary report, below the no-change consensus. • Korea: CPI inflation fell to 0.0% in August, from 0.6% in July, below the consensus, 0.2%.
China's Caixin gauge still to register renewed tariff threat. Japan's Capex growth on borrowed time. Korean exports stumble in May, but Q2 is shaping up to be better than Q1. Korea's PMI for May highlights the still-huge downside risks facing exporters.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a correction. Korea's PMI closes out the year strong, chiming with December's punchy trade data.
PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January
An encouraging 20-day export print from Korea, as China plays catch-up
A two-tiered economic recovery is emerging in Japan. PPI deflation in Korea will soon bottom out
Japan's trade balance should recover as domestic weakness sets in; Japan's manufacturing PMI undermines H2 recovery hopes; Japan's services PMI paints a damning picture of Q2; Korea's export recovery from the April low will be more gradual than the descent; A lot more downside left for PPI deflation in Korea before Q3 trough
November's 20-day data confirm that Korea's export slump bottomed out in October
The renewed trade war is unfortunate timing, as Korea exports are stabilising at the margins. Revised index shows that Korean PPI inflation hasn't been missing this year.
Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's PMI hit by renewed trade wars, while domestic demand shows signs of slowing. The fledgling recovery in Korean exports lost steam in June.
The BoJ's growth upgrade for fiscal 2020 is on the ambitious side, to say the least. Lunar New Year noise hit Korea's 20-day export print for January. Korea completes its exit from a brief and shallow spell of PPI deflation.
Non-core crosscurrents in Japanese CPI cancelled each other out in June. Ignore the headline... The details of Korea's 20-day export in July weren't that bad. The end is in sight for PPI deflation in Korea.
China's prime rates are going nowhere; Chuseok effects flatter Korea's 20-day export numbers for September
PPI deflation in Korea looks set to deepen, and rapidly so.
Net trade and inventories cushion Korea's historic consumption collapse in Q1. Nasty Japan manufacturing readings, but we can extrapolate light at the end of the tunnel. A devastating services PMI report for Japan.
Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow
Korea continues to inch its way out of PPI deflation
Loan prime rates unchanged, but an RRR cut looks imminent, Korean exports are heading into Q3 with promising momentum
Korea's consensus-beating preliminary Q4 GDP print is susceptible to a downgrade
Chinese manufacturing powers through Beijing's partial lockdown. The hot construction sector in China took a small breather in June. Unemployment in Japan is on track to breach the 3% mark for the first time since 2017. No immediate relief for Japanese industry from the withdrawal of the state of emergency. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the downturn in Korean industry.
China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.
The coronavirus will put renewed pressure on Korea's current account surplus.
Korea's current account surplus should rebound sharply in December. The rate of QE in Japan slipped in December.
Japan's wage growth bounces back on volatile bonuses; distortions still at play? Korea's current account surplus has bottomed out, but pressure on the won will continue to rise in the S/T.
Korea's current account surplus rebounded on a smaller services deficit in July
Japan's services PMI points to Q2 GDP contraction. China's Caixin services PMI highlights the reasons for official concern over employment. Korea's current account slips into deficit for the first time since 2012.
Covid-19 could soon push Korea's current account surplus into the red.
Rapidly falling wages in Japan rule out a V-shaped spending bounce. May confirms that Korea's current account deficit in April was just a one-off.
China's exporters fulfil old orders; new orders have plunged; Caixin survey underlines that smaller firms are still sputtering; An unsurprisingly modest start for "unlimited QE" in Japan; Expect much more trade damage to Korea's current account surplus in April
Korea watchers appear to be hanging on Governor Lee Ju-yeol's every word, searching for any sign that he'll drop his hawkish pursuit of more sustainable household debt levels and prioritise short-term growth concerns.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.
China's trade surplus falls unexpectedly in April, thanks partly to a bump in imports. Japan's services PMI falls despite holiday boost. The BoJ remains in a holding pattern. Korea's current account surplus rose in March, but its overall downtrend remains intact.
The RMB's run is slowing China's exit from PPI deflation. Pork prices are starting to cool, again, pulling down Chinese CPI inflation. M2 growth in Japan remains punchy, setting the stage for a Q3 bounce. Machine tool orders in Japan are finally turning the corner after a long-running slump. Like last year, don't read too much into the August surprise in Korea's jobs data.
Japan's wage growth rebounded because August is not a bonus month. Japan's current account maintains stability as trade balance cross currents persist. China's services PMI report contains some positive details but we aren't convinced. The rebuilding of Korea's current account surplus will soon lose momentum.
Let's not get carried away with the Japanese fiscal stimulus. Korea's current account surplus rebounded in October, as the services gap returned to its narrowing trend.
Trade drives Korea's current account surplus to a nine-month high.
Consensus-beating March PMI merely underscores how bad February was... the economy isn't out of the woods. The non-manufacturing bounce was broad-based, but construction led the way. Japan's job openings plunge shows the direction of travel for unemployment. Japan's retail sales suggest Q1 pain to be concentrated in March. Japan inc granted a last month of reprieve before the Covid-19 storm hits. Korean carmakers' sourcing woes largely to blame for February hit.
China's manufacturing PMI was poised for major disappointment... the trade war impact is clear. Don't be fooled by the relative stability of China's non-manufacturing PMI. Japan's March unemployment uptick was early; April was payback. Japan's CPI inflation has peaked. Japan's industrial production ticks up after extreme weakness; don't hold your breath for the recovery. Japan's consumers in poor shape, but maybe it's not that bad. The upswing in Korean industrial production likely to take a breather this month. The BoK holds firm, despite rising calls for a rate cut.
Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.
China's manufacturing PMI edged up in July. Services in China are finally starting to feel the pinch. Korean IP looks poised for a stronger increase in July, notwithstanding Japan's export curbs.
China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now
BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.
Non-core base effects push Korean CPI inflation to a 14-month high in January. Monetary base data show BoJ back-peddling against virus.
Smaller services sector firms worse hit by virus containment. Korean virus response notches up in the wake of the Fed move.
The hit from oil prices has just started; CPI deflation is imminent in Korea. Korea's PMI descends further, but April could mark the low
Korea's current account deficit in April probably was the low.
Korea's Q1 GDP downgrade will fuel calls for a rate cut. CPI inflation in Korea should soon peak out. Ignore the uptick in Japanese monetary base; it's a one off.
Korea's current account balance returns to the black in May
Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.
Overdue correction in the primary income surplus brings Korea's current account back down to earth.
April wasn't so bad for Korean exports, which are starting to bottom out in real terms
Sharper energy and education deflation offset a jump in food prices in Tokyo. Lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. knock out Korean exports in April.
Manufacturers in China are skating on thin ice. Construction is still doing most of the heavy lifting for China's non-manufacturing index. MoF data suggest that Japan probably avoided a technical recession in Q1, just. Korean exports stabilise in May, but Q2 still looks like a lost cause. Korea's PMI continued to sink in May, with no clear signs of a turnaround in export orders.
Tankan suggests downside risks to our -6% y/y Q2 GDP forecast. Private manufacturers in China continue to play catch-up. Expect a bumpy recovery for Korean exports in Q3. Korean business sentiment is finally recovering.
Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.
Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.
The Tankan points to a q/q contraction for capex in Q3, but GDP growth overall will stay strong. Japan's unemployment steady, but details bode ill for Q4. September's full-month data dispel some export worries in Korea; expect a Q3 lift from net trade. Korea's PMI pours cold water on the spectacular jobs report for August. September is as bad as it gets for Korean CPI deflation.
Big gains in the size of the labour force continue to flatter Korea's unemployment rate. Japan's exit from PPI deflation will be followed by only modest inflation.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.
Expect Chinese PPI deflation in the second half. China's CPI inflation faces non-core cross currents; services inflation still slowing. Unemployment in Korea held steady in June; the BoK will be chuffed about improving job growth. PPI deflation in Japan will persist until the end of the year.
Tankan poses downside risks to our Q3 GDP forecast for Japan. Chuseok effects flatter Korean exports in September... expect a reversal this month.
PBoC holding still in the wake of Fed rate cut. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was due a bounce. Inflation in Korea will soon take another nosedive, due largely to unfavourable non-core base effects. Korea's export slump turned less bad in July. Korea's two main manufacturing surveys aren't talking to each other.
The Tankan survey reinforces our conviction in a c.2% y/y Q1 contraction in Japanese GDP. Caixin suggests March was as bad as February... that's bad. Ignore the headline, Korean exports rebounded strongly in March, salvaging Q1. Korean business sentiment is sinking to GFC territory.
Korea's business survey index rose for a second straight month in March, to 75 from 73 in February, on our adjustment.
Korean exports are often a useful gauge of Asian and global trade; the country sits near the beginning of the global supply chain. It also happens to publish early in the data cycle and provides a measure of exports in the first 20 days of the month.
Korea's economic data for June largely were poor, and are likely to make more BoK board members anxious ,ahead of their meeting on July 18.
Korea's 20-day export growth came in weaker than we anticipated earlier this week. Granted, year-over- year growth rebounded to 14.8% in May, from 8.3% in April.
We expect the Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged on Thursday, at 0.50%.
Korean 20-day exports are volatile and often miss the mark with respect to the full-month print. But these data offer the month's first look at Asian trade, and we often find value in these early signs.
The Bank of Korea yesterday laid out its conditions for following July's rate cut with another.
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.
Korea's preliminary export numbers rebounded quite spectacularly in June, with growth at 24.4% year-on-year, compared with just 3.4% in May. This reading is important as it comes early in the monthly data cycle. Korea's position close to the beginning of the global supply chain, moreover, means its exports often lead shifts in global trade.
Korean trade activity is slowing.
Covid-19 efforts in Korea, plus Q1 front-loading of jobs budget, result in February surprise.
China still is on track for mild CPI deflation by Q4, PPI deflation in China has bottomed out , Core machine orders in Japan tank in the wake of the state of emergency, Adverse base effects from last year's tax hike will delay Japan's exit from PPI deflation, Surprise spike in Korea's unemployment rate makes sense given the plunge in jobs created
China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.
A trivial upgrade to Korea's Q1 GDP, CPI deflation in Korea will last for the rest of 2020, Monetary base growth in Japan continued to accelerate in May, as the rate of QE rose
Still no benchmark rate cuts, as the PBoC lowers the cost of its re-lending and re-discount loans. The lagged oil drag on Korean CPI is now receding. No signs, yet, of the BoJ taking its foot off the pedal on JGB purchases.
Korean exports show no signs of additional pain from Japan's trade salvo. PPI deflation takes hold in Korea.
Korean inflation surprises to the upside in April. Manufacturing surveys in Korea are turning up.
Rising inflation in Korea isn't indicative of an economic turnaround. Early signs that the BoJ has taken its foot off the gas on Covid QE.
Chinese banks send a message: no rate corridor cut, no LPR reduction, PPI deflation in Korea in Q2 seems inevitable
The BoJ keeps it promises vague. Japan's April is turning out quite nicely. PPI inflation in Korea slipped in May, and is heading for deflation in Q3.
China's LPR drop tells us moral suasion is in full swing. PPI inflation in Korea has peaked, for now.
Japan's CPI inflation has troughed; Japan's budget forecasts for next year are on the rosy side; China's LPR stability reflects precarious banking sector; Korea should make a complete exit from PPI deflation this month
August plunge in Korean unemployment is unsustainable, but should effectively rule out another BoK cut.
BoJ does what it can to avoid more deeply negative yields. Korean inflation should peak this month
Mr. Trump's partial U-turn on September tariffs shows some semblance of an understanding of reality...that's a good thing. China's industrial production crushes June hopes of a swift recovery. Chinese consumers struggle. Chinese FAI: the infrastructure industry growth slowdown is especially worrying. Japan's strong core machine orders rebound in June probably faded in recent weeks. Korea's jobless rate will soon creep back up after remaining steady in July.
Job losses in the over-60 group pull Korea's unemployment rate higher in December. Japanese M2 growth holds steady in December. Still no clear signs of a recovery in machine tool orders in Japan.
Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.
Surprise stability in Korea's unemployment rate won't last. Risks to Japan's current account surplus are weighted to the downside
Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.
Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.
This should be as high as it gets for Japanese inflation for a while, No significant economic damage from Japan's second wave, just yet, The recovery in Korean exports remains on track, PPI deflation in Korea eases for a second straight month
China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.
Japan's government is sucking out more private funds than it is pumping in. Weak oil prices will continue to pull down Korean inflation in the coming months.
Don't expect the BoK to follow the BoJ's unorthodoxy in the foreseeable future. The upward correction in Korean unemployment has much more room to run.
China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should rebound, but the hit to global demand will hold back the secondary industry. China's property market grounds to a halt in February. The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally.
Korea's main activity data for August showed that the economy clearly wobbled in the wake of the country's second wave of Covid-19, and the social distancing measures imposed in response to it.
Korean GDP data for Q2, released yesterday, were largely in line with our expectations, in that net exports cushioned softer domestic demand.
Korea's unemployment rate plunged unexpectedly in August, to 3.2%--the lowest in a year--from 4.2% in July, defying expectations for no change and the renewed pressure on the economy from the second wave of Covid-19.
The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.
Korea's jobs report for January was nasty. The unemployment rate spiked to 4.4%, from 3.8% in December, marking the highest level in nine years.
Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic growth slowdown from late- 2017 to early-2019 would eventually push the jobless rate to the mid-4% level this year; the sudden stop caused by Covid-19 merely sped up this process.
China's Recovery Tentatively Pending *Japan is Weaker than it Looks *The Worst is Over in Korea *Expect an RBI U-Turn
Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.
Korea's partial trade data for March suggest that the first quarter may not be as grim as we expected, at least in terms of merchandise trade.
Data and events have gone against the idea of further BoK policy normalisation since the November hike.
Data to be released this Friday should show that Japan's labour market remains tight, though the unemployment rate likely ticked back up in February, to 2.6%, after the erratic drop to 2.4% in January.
The BoJ until last week had been in wait-and-see mode over China's slowdown, but they finally folded with Thursday's decision.
The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.
Last week the Chinese authorities issued a series of new measures to help with bank recapitalisation, and, we think, to supplement interbank liquidity.
The last few years have thrown up surprise after surprise for establishment parties. Mr. Abe's Liberal Democrat Party is about as establishment as they come.
China's official PMIs were little changed in August, with the manufacturing gauge up trivially to 51.3, from 51.2 in July and the non-manufacturing gauge up to 54.2, from 54.0.
The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.
Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.
In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out the prime causes of China's weekend announcement, cutting the reserve requirement ratio.
India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.
Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.0% in December from 0.6% in November, driven by food prices.
Predictably, the Bank of England's estimate that GDP would plunge by 8% in the first year after a disorderly no-deal, no transition Brexit and that interest rates would need to rise to 5.5% to contain inflation grabbed the headlines yesterday.
Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.
After years of rapid increase, China appears finally to have stabilised its ratio of private non-financial to GDP ratio.
Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.
The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.
Modern Money Theory has come up at two consecutive BoJ press conferences.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.5 in December from 50.8 in November. But the jump looks erratic and we expect it to correct in January.
China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.
In previous Monitors, we have outlined our base case that the direct impact of tariffs on Chinese GDP will be minimal this year.
The forward-looking indices of China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for April attracted more attention than the headline, which was a bit of a non-event; it rose trivially 51.1, from 51.0 in March.
China is set to ease reserve requirements for banks lending to small businesses. In a statement after the State Council meeting yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang said that commercial banks would receive a cut in their RRR , from 17% currently, based on how much they lend to businesses run by individuals.
China's economic targets are AWOL this year, thanks to Covid-19 disruptions to the legislative calendar... and because policymakers seem unsure of what targets to set in such uncertain times.
China's Q2 real GDP growth officially slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1, which already matched the trough in the financial crisis.
CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.
The China Daily ran an article entitled "Beijing, nation get breath of fresh air" on the day Chinese GDP figures were published last week, underlining where the authorities' priorities now lie.
Yesterday's Japanese activity data were grim.
The newest cluster of Covid-19 in China has reignited concerns over a second wave. On June 11, Beijing confirmed its first infection in nearly 60 days, originating reportedly from Xinfadi market, a wholesaler which supplies about 80% of the capital's produce.
The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely fairly--and suggesting that inflation will soon return.
Japan's all-industry activity index fell 0.5% month-on- month in September after a 0.2% rise in August. Construction activity continued to plummet, with the subindex dropping 2.3%, after a 2.2% fall in August.
For countries with developed non-banking funding channels, narrow money isn't necessarily a good predictor of GDP growth.
On the face of it, BoJ policy seems to be to change none of the settings and let things unfold, hoping that the trade war doesn't escalate, that China's recovery gets underway soon, and that semiconductor sales pick up in the second half.
China's current account surplus grew further in the final quarter of 2018, more than doubling to $54.6B, from $23.3B in Q3.
Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.
The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is another step to limit the emerging credit crunch triggered by the virus.
Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports have come raging into fashion in recent weeks, providing a glimpse of the damage done by lockdowns across the world.
Politics are once again encroaching on the economic story in the Eurozone. At the ECB, this week has so far been a tumultuous one.
The PBoC managed to keep interest rates well- anchored around the Chinese New Year holiday, when volatility is often elevated.
China's loan prime rates were unchanged for a second straight month in June, as expected.
Japanese data continue to come in strongly for the second quarter. The manufacturing PMI points to continued sturdy growth, despite the headline index dipping to 52.0 in June from 53.1 in May. The average for Q2 overall was 52.6, almost unchanged from Q1's 52.8, signalling that manufacturing output growth has maintained its recent rate of growth.
Japan's September PMI report showed some slippage, but overall, it suggests that GDP growth in Q3 was a little stronger than the 0.3% quarter- on-quarter rate in Q2.
Major central banks in Asia, particularly those operating in export-oriented economies, have recently been pinning their future policy moves on the prospects of a specific industry, namely semiconductors.
The final numbers for China's balance of payments in the first quarter showed that the current account descended to a $34B deficit, from a surplus of $30B a year earlier.
The past year has been difficult for Asian economies, with trade wars, natural disasters, and misguided policies, to name a few, putting a dampener on growth.
Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.
Japan's CPI inflation jumped to 1.3% in August, from 0.9% in July.
The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.
Yesterday's announcement that the administration plans to imposes tariffs worth about $60B per year -- thatìs 0.3% of GDP -- on an array of imports of consumer goods from China is a serious escalation.
Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.
Japan's national CPI inflation has peaked, falling to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April.
The Chinese Communist Party revealed the new members of its top brass yesterday, with the line-up ensuring policy continuity.
Always expect the unexpected in a bonus month for Japanese wages.
The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.
It is becoming increasingly safe to say that any bounce in private consumption following the end of Japan's state of emergency will be muted and difficult to sustain.
Japan's average monthly labour earnings growth tumbled to 0.9% year-over-year in August, from 1.6% in July. This is not a disaster.
China's trade numbers for July surprised to the upside, with both exports and imports faring better than consensus forecasts in year-over-year terms.
China's trade surplus collapsed unexpectedly in April, to $13.8B, from a trivially-revised $32.4B in March.
China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.
China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.
Recent market turmoil and concerns on the outlook for global growth have re-awakened talk of stimulus. For the BoJ, this inevitably raises the question of what could possibly be done, given that policy already appears to be on the excessively loose side of loose.
Demand for German manufacturing goods remained subdued at the end of Q4.
Our chief economist, Ian Shepherdson, set out our initial thoughts on the rising tensions between U.S. and Iran here.
In his second confirmation hearing, Governor Kuroda continued his dance with markets, dialling down the exit talk.
The PBoC cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio late on Friday--as signalled at last Wednesday's State Council meeting--by 0.5 percentage points, to be implemented from September 16.
China's export data for April were a mixed bag, to say the least.
Expecting one more cut from the BoK, as it mulls implicit forms QE and YCC
China's manufacturing PMIs remain in the downdraft
The PBoC late on Wednesday announced measures to provide medium-term funding for smaller businesses.
Household debt forced the BoK toward targeted measures and away from a system-wide cut
A grim start to Q2, as developed world demand collapses
Steady Q4 GDP growth in China masks respectable q/q rebound. Signs of recovery in China's industrial complex, but for how long? China's households continue to struggle. China's FAI growth shows rebuilding confidence around the Phase One deal. Japan's November tertiary index suggests October plunge was more tax than typhoon. January sees the first of many BoK "holds" this year.
Headline GDP growth in Q3 was unchanged, but the revised details mostly were positive. BoJ in a holding pattern on aggregate JGB purchases; focus on curve steepening
Echoes of the global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami in Japan's manufacturing PMI
China's firms aren't passing on tax hikes after all. China takes full advantage of previous oil price declines. Japan's core machine orders better than expected, but that won't help Q2. Japan is heading for a spell of sustained PPI deflation in H2. Better May jobs report will help to keep any BoK rate cuts at bay.
BoJ programmes are propping up M2 growth; Japan's machine tool orders tumble will get worse before better
China's consensus-beating Q2 GDP signals that it is done easing. Chinese industry drove the Q2 rebound... now comes the hard part. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China continues to disappoint. The upward momentum in China's property market is unlikely to last. The BoK held, but Governor Lee's rhetoric suggests it should've cut.
A growing number of economists have marked down their forecasts for Chinese growth next year to below the critical 6% year-over-year rate, required to ensure that the authorities meet their implicit medium- term growth targets.
We are sticking to our call for a weak first half in Japan, despite likely upgrades to Q1 GDP on Monday.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI for January was grim, indicating that China's start to the year wasn't as benign as the official surveys suggested.
Japan's labour market is already tight, but last week's data suggest it is set to tighten further.
The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI was steady in May, at 50.2, in contrast to the official gauge published on Friday, which dropped to 49.5, from April's 50.2.
We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
The Tankan survey--published on Monday--points to still buoyant sentiment, a further tightening of the labour market, and building inflation pressures.
Yesterday's BoJ statement, outlook and press conference raised our conviction on two key aspects of the policy outlook.
China's official PMIs for January, due out tomorrow, will give the first indications of how the economy started the year.
Japan returned the ruling LDP coalition to power in an upper house election over the weekend.
China's official manufacturing PMI for May, out tomorrow, will give the first indication of the coming hit from the resumption of its tariff war with the U.S.
Japan's retail sales values jumped 1.2% month-on-month in October, after the upwardly-revised 0.1% increase in September.
India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.
The BoJ has no good options, and its leeway for changes to existing policy instruments is limited.
In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.
The apparently imminent imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum does not per se constitute a serious macroeconomic shock.
At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.
The meta game between China and Mr. Trump started as soon as he had any possibility of winning the election in 2016.
Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.
The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.
GDP growth in India slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, as expected--see here--opening the door for the RBI to cut interest rates further at its policy announcement tomorrow.
So that happened.
Japan's monetary base growth has continued to slow, to 13.2% year-over-year in November from 14.5% in October.
Data last Friday showed Japan's labour market trends deteriorating.
Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party took a drubbing at the polls in Tokyo's Assembly election over the weekend. The consequences for fiscal spending probably are minimal but the vote strengthens the case for increased emphasis on the structural reform "arrow" and less focus on monetary policy.
Japan's Q1 is coming more sharply into focus.
China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too
China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.
Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Japan's producer price inflation levelled off in June and, for now, both commodity prices and currency moves in the first half imply that inflation should fall in the second half.
The Japanese government's plan to smooth out the consumption cliff-edge generated by October's sales tax hike is either going too well, or consumers now are facing fundamental headwinds.
India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.
China's Q2 official GDP growth, to be released on Monday, likely slowed to 6.2% year-over-year, from 6.4% in Q1.
China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.
The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.
Official, real GDP growth was low in Q1, at 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.6% in Q4.
Japan's second wave of Covid-19 is in its early phase, though the virus appears to be spreading rapidly.
Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.
Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.
China's M2 growth surprised on the upside in July, rising to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.0% in June.
China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July
Japan's Ministry of Finance yesterday admitted falsifying documents submitted to the country's parliament during a corruption probe last year.
In her inaugural Monitor, our Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish plots three scenarios for the Chinese economy. The best-case scenario is that China makes a smooth transition to consumer-led growth.
We held our breath this month.
The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases "across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding".
Japan's preliminary GDP report for Q4 is out on Thursday, and we expect to see a punchy number.
China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.
The return of Chinese PPI inflation in 2016 helped to stabilise equities after the boom-bust of the previous year.
Chinese data still are in the midst of Lunar New Year-related noise, so take February's PMIs with a pinch of salt, even though they ostensibly are adjusted for seasonal effects.
Yesterday's Chinese PMI numbers disappointed forecasts across the board, failing to meet widespread expectations for either stability or a continued, albeit marginal, improvement in April.
Japan's industrial production data for May carried more evidence that the economy is getting a lift--at least temporarily--from the front-loading of activity ahead of the scheduled sales tax increase in October.
China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed in January, ticking up to 49.5, from 49.4 in December, with the output and new orders sub-indices largely stable.
Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group.
China's official manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, implies the industrial complex has maintained momentum going into Q3. The official manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.4 in July from 51.7 in June. The July reading was unchanged from the average in Q2 and only modestly down from the 51.6 in Q1.
President Moon was elected earlier this year on a promise to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand and reduce export dependency. It's not the first time politicians have received such a mandate.
Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.
Japan's wage growth surprised us with a jump to 2.0% year-over-year in December, up from 1.5% in November.
PPI inflation in Asia looks set to go from bad to worse, following June's poor numbers, which showed that the weakness in commodity prices is feeding through quicker than expected.
China's PPI deflation deepened in August, with prices dropping 0.8% year-over-year, after a 0.3% decline in July.
Chinese PPI inflation dropped again in March to 3.1%, from February's 3.7%. Commodities were the driver, but base effects should mean the headline rate won't fall further in coming months; it is more likely to rise in Q2.
China's PPI inflation rose again in June, to 4.7%, from 4.1% in May.
Since the protests in Hong Kong began, we've become increasingly convinced that China is backing away from a comprehensive trade deal with Mr. Trump.
China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.
The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.
We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.
The Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.50% yesterday, but downgraded its inflation forecast for 2018 to 1.6% from 1.7%
On the face of it, trade negotiations have deteriorated in the last week.
The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse-repo rate yesterday, to 2.50% from 2.55%.
President Xi Jinping started China's Party Congress yesterday with a speech setting out the priorities for the next five years.
China's official GDP data, published on Monday, showed year-over-year growth edging down to 6.7% in Q2, from 6.8% in Q1.
A slew of Asian price numbers are due this Friday, and they will all likely show that price gains softened further in January.
An inverted curve is a widely recognised signal that a recession is around the corner, though it's worth remembering that the lags tend to be long.
The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.
Japan's trade surplus is set to fall in coming months, as domestic demand remains robust, while recent oil price increases will be a drag, lifting imports.
The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.
The Q1 Tankan survey headlines were close to our expectations, chiming with our call for year-over-year contraction in Japanese GDP of at least 2%, after the 0.7% decline in Q4.
Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.
We expect the BoK to hike this month, believing that it's necessary to curtail household debt growth now, in order to prevent a sharper economic slowdown as the Fed hiking cycle continues, China slows, and trade risks unfold.
Japanese CPI inflation jumped to 0.7% in August from 0.4% in July. The ris e in prices over the last year, however, was mainly driven by food and energy.
We anticipated that the G20 meeting at Osaka over last weekend would be a potentially important mark of thawing relations between China and the U.S., with the hotly awaited meeting between Messrs. Xi and Trump.
Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less volatile on our adjustment model. On our adjustment, the headline has averaged 50.9 so far this year, modestly higher than in the second half of last year.
Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.
Holiday effects are tedious and you are going to hear us talking about them until the March data come through.
China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.
China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.
LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.
China's September trade numbers show that, far from reducing the surplus with the U.S., the trade wars so far have pushed it up to a new record.
Yesterday's Q2 GDP report in Germany was solid, but the headline disappointed slightly. GDP growth slowed to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter from an upwardly- revised 0.7% rise in Q1. The year-over-year rate, however, rose to 2.1% from a revised 2.0% in Q1.
China's trade surplus plunged to $46.4B in June, from $62.9B in May, largely in line with our below- consensus forecast.
Last week's horrible manufacturing data in the major EZ economies had already warned investors that yesterday's industrial production report for the zone as a whole would be one to forget.
The RMB has risen strongly in recent months, initially with the euro and the yen, but China's currency rose on a trade-weighted basis in August.
The turmoil in Washington has begun to hit markets. We don't know how this will end, but we do know that it isn't going away quickly.
Japan's PPI inflation was unchanged, at 3.0%, in August.
ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.
China's unadjusted March trade balance rebounded to a surplus of $20B, from a combined deficit of -$7B in the first two months of the year.
Official industrial production growth in China plunged to 5.4% year-over-year in April, from 8.5% in March.
China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.
Governor Kuroda has sounded increasingly dovish recently.
The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.
The imposition of 25% tariffs on $50B-worth of imports from China, announced Friday, had been clearly flagged in media reports over the previous couple of weeks.
In our daily Monitors we've talked about the four paths that we see for the Chinese economy over the medium-to-long term. First, China could make history and actively transition to private consumption-led growth.
China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.
Chinese monetary policymakers can rely on several different instruments to affect market and broad liquidity, ranging from various forms of open market operations to interest rates to FX intervention. The tool kit is constantly changing as the PBoC refines its operations.
Japan's export data for April unsurprisingly were abysmal, driving a massive deterioration in the trade balance, which flipped from a modest ¥5B surplus in March, to a ¥930B deficit.
Too Soon For China To Claim A Full Recovery...A Tough Start For Japan's New Prime Minister...The Recovery In Korean Exports Is Holding Up, Just...Still No Let-Up In India's Covid-19 Outbreak
China Gets A 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade...Back To The Bad Old Days For Japan...Korea Points To Stabilisation In Global Trade...Plus -4% Inflation Sets Up An RBI Pause
China's Unsustainable V-Shaped Recovery...Japan's Q1 GDP Contraction Is Just A Taster...Korea's Grim April Exports Is A Warning Shot...India's Lockdown Will Kill Q2, Despite Relaxation
China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around
Korea's modest consumption rebound in Q2 barely cushioned the trade blow
• U.S. - Congressional face-off could delay the next relief bill until September • EUROZONE - The Eurozone economics team is on vacation • U.K. - Surging retail sales are a poor guide to overall consumption • ASIA - Korea's grim Q2 likely was the low, but the recovery is fragile • LATAM - The deep recession will suppress inflation in Mexico
Activity Data Confirm China's Nightmare Q1...Japan In For A Full-Year Contraction...Korea Should Be Able To Avoid A Technical Recession....India's Policymakers Are Reasonably Quiet, For Now
The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.
he frequency of North Korean missile tests and attention-grabbing moves has increased markedly in recent months. Media reports now suggest that North Korea is preparing to follow its weekend nuclear test with another intercontinental ballistic missile test, in an unprecedented show of technological advancement.
The BoJ is doing everything within its power to cushion the virus blow; The PBoC is driving down market rates without a formal corridor cut; The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally
In one line: Covid-19 outbreaks fading in China, Korea; Elsewhere, not.
China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing
China Delivers Stimulus; No Trough Yet...Korea and Japan Pummelled by China's Slowdown...Time for a Boj Inflation Target Rethink?
China's Narrow Q3 Bounce Is Warning...Abe's Second Wave Gamble Has Paid Off...But Korea Is Now In The Thick Of It...The RBI Will Resume Easing In October
Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India
China's Growing Demand-Supply Mismatch...Three Straight Quarters Of Contraction In Japan...Covid Defeated, But Korea's Economic Hit Isn't Over...An H1 Recession In India Is All But Guarenteed
China Downtrend Worse; Outlook Better..Japan's Bouncy Q4 Won't Be Repeated In Q1...Korea's Job Market Pummelled By Minimum Wage Hike
China's Stimulus Faces Q4 Hurdles....Japan Bouced Back in October, But Will it Last? Growth in Korea is Set to Become Much Weaker
Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery
China's Recovery Will Lose Steam In H2...Tokyo's Second Wave Is Unlike The First, Good...A Capex Correction In Korea Is Imminent...India Is Making Life Harder For Itself
Punchy Q2 Implies A Quieter Q3 In China...Expect A Quieter Secord Half For The BOJ...Korean Exports Look Poised To Turn The Corner..No Bullet Was Dodged In India; Unlock 1.0 Is Risky
China: Manuf. Green Shoots; Household Pain...Japan's Fiscal Package Faces Capacity Constraints...Korea's Q4 GDP Bump Is Iffy, But The Recovery Is On...Food Inflation In India Isn't Just About Onions
Chinese GDP Growth Won't Trough Until Q3...The Window For BOJ Adjustments Is Narrowing...Not Buying Into Korea's Consensus-Beating Q4 GDP
The worst--for the economy--is over in Japan, but the recovery will be muted
Machine tool orders in Japan are still in the doldrums.
Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Latvia
Welcome to Pantheon Macroeconomics, leading provider of Independent Macroeconomic Research
pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research