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U.S. Publications

H2 2017 U.S. Outlook - Brace for a Sustained Shift in Interest Rate Expectations

By Ian Shepherdson

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

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20 July 2017 The June Housing Starts Rebound is not the Start of a Boom

By Ian Shepherdson

We would like to be able to argue with conviction that the surge in June housing starts and building permits represents the beginning of a renewed strong upward trend, but we think that's unlikely.

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19 July 2017 Falling CPI Physicians Fees are a Response to Rising Part B Premiums

By Ian Shepherdson

The closer we look at the data, the more convinced we become that the rollover in CPI physicians' services prices, which has subtracted nearly 0.1% from core CPI inflation since January, is a response to sharply higher Medicare part B premiums, especially for new enrollees.

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18 July 2017 Will Foreign Trade be a Drag on Second Quarter GDP Growth?

By Ian Shepherdson

Markets usually ignore the monthly import price data, presumably because they are far removed, especially at the headline level, from the consumer price numbers the Fed targets.

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17 July 2017 September Rate Hike Odds Have Fallen, but it's not Over Yet

By Ian Shepherdson

After four straight sub-consensus core CPI readings, we think the odds now favor reversion to the prior trend, 0.2%, over the next few months.

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*July 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook*

By Ian Shepherdson

The Fed plans to keep on hiking...falling unemployment is the key, not the softer CPI

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14 July 2017 Core CPI Inflation Won't Fall Forever, but When Will the Rebound Come?

By Ian Shepherdson

Today brings a huge wave of data, but most market attention will be on the June CPI, following the run of unexpectedly soft core readings over the past three months.

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13 July 2017 Yellen Expects the Labor Market to Tighten Further, and Rates to Rise

By Ian Shepherdson

Chair Yellen broke no new ground in her Testimony yesterday, repeating her long-standing view that the tightening labor market requires the Fed to continue normalizing policy at a gradual pace.

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12 July 2017 Yellen Will Re-affirm Fed Policy. Expect no Revelations, or Dates

By Ian Shepherdson

Chair Yellen has become quite good at not giving much away at her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony.

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11 July 2017 Small Businesses are Still Optimistic, but a Correction is Due

By Ian Shepherdson

Before last November's election, movements in the headline NFIB index of activity and sentiment among small businesses could be predicted quite reliably from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released in advance of the main survey.

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