Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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12 April 2018 Base Effects Kick-in to Core Inflation, Much More to Come

The month-to-month core CPI numbers in March were consistent, in aggregate, with the underlying trend.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

11 April 2018 Core Inflation to Rise Sharply, the Fed will be Watching Expectations

Today's March CPI ought to provide further support for the idea that the trend rate of increase in the core index is running at about 0.2% per month, an annualized rate, if sustained, of about 2.5%.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 April 2018 Falling Stock Prices Threaten NFIB Headlines, Labor Data Strong

It's probably too soon to expect to see a meaningful reaction in the NFIB small business survey to the drop in stock prices, but it likely is coming, and a hit in today's March report can't be ruled out entirely.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 April 2018 March Payrolls Don't Signal a Shift in the Trend, Expect 200K-plus in April

March payrolls were constrained by both the impact of colder and snowier weather than usual in the survey week, and a correction in the construction and retail components, which were unsustainably strong in February.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

6 April 2018 Expect a Correction in Payrolls, but the Trend is Still Very Strong

Your correspondent is on the slopes this week, but the employment report deserves a preview nonetheless.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 March 2018 Net Trade Will be a Drag on Q1 GDP, but Inventories are Rocketing

If we're right with our forecast that real consumers' spending rose by just 0.1% month-to-month in February -- enough only to reverse January's decline -- then it would be reasonable to expect consumption across the first quarter as a whole to climb at a mere 1.2% annualized rate.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

28 March 2018 February Foreign Trade Data Could Move the Needle on Q1 GDP Growth

Markets often greet the monthly international trade numbers with a shrug.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

27 March 2018 Consumers' Spending Constrained by Cashflow, not Confidence

Whichever way you choose to slice the numbers, consumers' spending is growing much more slowly than is implied by an array of confidence surveys.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

26 March 2018 Smoot and Hawley are Still Dead, Trump is not Resurrecting them... Yet

Everyone needs to take a deep breath: This is not 1930, and Smoot-Hawley all over again.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

23 March 2018 Stock up on Chinese-Made T-Shirts, While They're Still Nearly Free

Yesterday's announcement that the administration plans to imposes tariffs worth about $60B per year -- thatìs 0.3% of GDP -- on an array of imports of consumer goods from China is a serious escalation.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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