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U.S. Publications

10 October 2017 New Lows for Unemployment will Stiffen Fed Hawks' Resolve

Neither the 33K drop in September payrolls nor the 0.5% jump in hourly earnings tells us anything about the underlying state of the labor market. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 October 2017 September Payrolls Hit by the Hurricanes, but Earnings set to Pop

We would be quite surprised if today's official payroll number exceeded the 135K ADP reading; a clear undershoot is much more likely. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 October 2017 ADP Confirms that Hurricanes hit Payrolls

The ADP employment report for September showed private payrolls rose by 135K, trivially better than we expected. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 October 2017 ADP to Show Slower Job Gains Last Month, but will Overstate BLS Data

Today brings the first glimpse of the post-hurricane employment picture, in the form of the September ADP report. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

3 October 2017 Auto Sales Rebounded in September, but by How Much?

Auto industry watchers at WardsAuto and JD Power are in agreement that today's September sales numbers will be little changed from a year ago, at around 17.5M. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

2 October 2017 Four Reasons Why the Treasury Selloff Might be the Real Thing

The recent sell-off in Treasuries has not yet reached significant proportions. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

29 September 2017 Inventories Look set to Boost Q3 GDP Growth Substantially

With almost two thirds of the nominal data for the third quarter now available, we can make a stab at the contribution of inventories to real GDP growth. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

28 September 2017 Is Business Capex Finally Breaking to the Upside, led by Small Firms?

We have been waiting a long time to see signs that business investment spending is becoming less reliant on movements in oil prices. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

27 September 2017 Yellen is Following the Tightening Labor Market, it's Telling her to Hike

Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Cleveland yesterday elaborated on the key themes from last week's FOMC meeting. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

26 September 2017 Dudley Follows the Yellen Line, December Hike Increasingly Likely

New York Fed president Dudley toed the Yellen line yesterday, arguing that the effects of "...a number of temporary, idiosyncratic factors" will fade, so "...inflation will rise and stabilize around the FOMC's 2 percent objective over the medium term. More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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