U.S. Document Vault
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We already know that the month-to-month movements in the key labor market components of the December NFIB small business survey were mixed; the data were released last week, ahead the official employment report, as usual.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We aren't perturbed by the undershoot in December payrolls, relative both to the October and November numbers and all the leading indicators.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls up 250K in December, we have revised our forecast for today's official headline number up to 240K from 210K.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Today's ADP employment report for December ought to show private payrolls continue to rise at a very solid pace... More by Ian Shepherdson
The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening... More by Ian Shepherdson
Most of the data were consistent with the idea that fourth quarter growth will be a two-part story, with real strength in domestic final demand partly offset by substantial drags from net foreign trade and inventories.... More by Ian Shepherdson
This is the final U.S. Economic Monitor of 2017, a year which has seen the economy strengthen, the labor market tighten substantially, and the Fed raise rates three times, with zero deleterious effect on growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We see no compelling reason to expect a significant revision to the third quarter GDP numbers today, so our base case is that the second estimate, 3.3%, will still stand.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The single most important number in the housing construction report is single-family permits, because they lead starts by a month or two but are much less volatile.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In the short-term, all the housing data are volatile. But you can be sure that if the recent pace of new home sales is sustained, housing construction will rise.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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