U.S. Document Vault
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The month-to-month core CPI numbers in March were consistent, in aggregate, with the underlying trend.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Today's March CPI ought to provide further support for the idea that the trend rate of increase in the core index is running at about 0.2% per month, an annualized rate, if sustained, of about 2.5%.... More by Ian Shepherdson
It's probably too soon to expect to see a meaningful reaction in the NFIB small business survey to the drop in stock prices, but it likely is coming, and a hit in today's March report can't be ruled out entirely.... More by Ian Shepherdson
March payrolls were constrained by both the impact of colder and snowier weather than usual in the survey week, and a correction in the construction and retail components, which were unsustainably strong in February.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Your correspondent is on the slopes this week, but the employment report deserves a preview nonetheless.... More by Ian Shepherdson
If we're right with our forecast that real consumers' spending rose by just 0.1% month-to-month in February -- enough only to reverse January's decline -- then it would be reasonable to expect consumption across the first quarter as a whole to climb at a mere 1.2% annualized rate.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Markets often greet the monthly international trade numbers with a shrug.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Whichever way you choose to slice the numbers, consumers' spending is growing much more slowly than is implied by an array of confidence surveys.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Everyone needs to take a deep breath: This is not 1930, and Smoot-Hawley all over again.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Yesterday's announcement that the administration plans to imposes tariffs worth about $60B per year -- thatìs 0.3% of GDP -- on an array of imports of consumer goods from China is a serious escalation.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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