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*June 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook*

By Ian Shepherdson

The Payroll "Slowdown" Won't Last... The Fed Will Hike This Month, and Again Later This Year

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (702.29 KB) Download

8 June 2017 Hiring Plans Signal 200K-plus Summer Payroll Gains

By Ian Shepherdson

Our core view on the May payroll number remains that the single most likely cause of the unexpectedly modest increase is a seasonal adjustment error, triggered when the survey is conducted early in the month.

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7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News

By Ian Shepherdson

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

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6 June 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Jobs Up Sharply. Summer Payrolls to Surge?

By Ian Shepherdson

The 6.4-point rebound in the May ISM non-manufacturing employment index, to a very high 57.8, supports our view that summer payroll growth will be strong. On the face of it, the survey is consistent with job gains in excess of 300K, as our first chart shows, but that's very unlikely to happen.

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5 June 2017 May Payrolls Hit by the Calendar, Expect a Rebound, and a Fed Hike

By Ian Shepherdson

We don't believe that payrolls rose only 138K in May. History strongly suggests that when the May payroll survey is conducted relatively early in the month, payroll growth falls short of the prior trend.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (133.93 KB) Download

2 June 2017 May Payrolls Likely Solid, but Calendar Quirk will hit Wage Data

By Ian Shepherdson

The 253K increase in May private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday was some a bit stronger than our 225K forecast. Plugging the difference between these numbers into our payroll model generates our 210K forecast for today's official number.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (141.37 KB) Download

1 June 2017 ADP Likely to Rebound Strongly, but Probably Will Overstate Payrolls

By Ian Shepherdson

We're expecting a strong-looking 225K increase in the May ADP measure of private sector payroll growth, due today. The consensus forecast is 180K.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (152.66 KB) Download

31 May 2017 A Consumer Rebound is Underway, but Watch out for Healthcare Costs

By Ian Shepherdson

In the wake of April's 0.2% increase in real consumers' spending, and the upward revisions to the first quarter numbers, we now think that second quarter spending is on course to rise at an annualized rate of about 3.5%.

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30 May 2017 Why Don't Markets Take the Fed's Interest Rate Forecasts Seriously?

By Ian Shepherdson

Markets expect the Fed will fail to follow through on its current intention to raise rates twice more this year and three times next year. Part of this skepticism reflects recent experience.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (165.26 KB) Download

26 May 2017 First Quarter Growth Set to be Revised up, but Data are Very Flawed

By Ian Shepherdson

We didn't believe the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, 0.7%, and we won't believe today's second estimate, either. The data are riddled with distortions, most notably the long-standing problem of residual seasonality, which depressed the number by about one percentage point.

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (145.95 KB) Download

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