U.S. Document Vault
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Payroll growth in September and October probably won't be materially worse than August's meager 96K increase in private jobs.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Ominous, in more ways than one.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We're nudging up our forecast for today's August payroll number to 180K, in the wake of the ADP report.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Not as good as it looks.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Solid, but it won't last.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Labor demand, as measured by an array of business surveys, clearly slowed from the cycle peak, recorded late last year.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: The calm before the storm.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have argued for some time that much of the early phase of the downturn in global manufacturing was due to the weakening of China's economic cycle, rather than the trade war.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Grim; no sign of hitting bottom despite better regional surveys.... More by Ian Shepherdson
After a week--yes, a whole week!--with no significant new developments in the trade war with China--it's worth stepping back and asking a couple of fundamental questions, which might give us some clues as to what will happen over the months ahead.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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