Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

Below is a full list of our U.S. Publications.

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  US Datanote: NFIB Small Business Survey, January

In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  11 Feb 2020 Weather Boost to January Payrolls won't Fully Reverse in February

A reader pointed out Friday that the standard measurement of the impact of the weather on January payrolls--the number of people unable to work due to the weather, less the long-term average--likely overstated the boost from the extremely mild temperatures.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  10 Feb 2020 Job Gains Can't Be Sustained at January's Weather-Assisted Pace

The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. Employment, January

In one line: Unsustainable, but the trend is still pretty strong.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  7 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Payrolls Today, but Forward-Looking Surveys are Soft

We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Q4 and Jobless Claims

In one line: Productivity growth has peaked; expect a clear H1 slowdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing, January

In one line: Not as good as the headlines.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  US Datanote: U.S. International Trade, December

In one line: The post-tariff plunge in imports is starting to reverse.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

  US Datanote: ADP Employment, January

In one line: Spectacular, but it likely overstates the official numbers.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Datanotes [Download]

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