U.S. Document Vault
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The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.... More by Ian Shepherdson
A quick rebound in growth, after the slowdown to a reported 2.6% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday broke no new ground, largely repeating the message of the January 30 press conference.... More by Ian Shepherdson
A trade deal with China is in sight. President Trump tweeted Sunday that the planned increase in tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, due March 1, has been deferred--no date was specified-- in light of the "substantial progress" in the talks.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We can't remember the last time a single economic report was as surprising as the December retail sales numbers, released yesterday.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The core CPI has now risen by 0.2% in each of the past five months, a streak last seen 11 years ago.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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