Pantheon Macroeconomics - U.S. Document Vault

U.S. Documents
U.S. Document Vault

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U.S. Publications

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5 March 2019 Simultaneous ISM Declines are Disconcerting, but won't Persist

The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

1 March 2019 Q4 Growth Rescued by Business Spending on IP, but Q1 Set to Soften

A quick rebound in growth, after the slowdown to a reported 2.6% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

28 February 2019 Expect Underwhelming Q4 GDP Growth Data Today Q1 Likely Worse

We expect to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 3.4% in the third.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

27 February 2019 More Patience from Powell, Despite the Recovery in the Stock Market

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday broke no new ground, largely repeating the message of the January 30 press conference.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

26 February 2019 The Impending China Trade Deal will Pose Questions for the Fed

A trade deal with China is in sight. President Trump tweeted Sunday that the planned increase in tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, due March 1, has been deferred--no date was specified-- in light of the "substantial progress" in the talks.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

25 February 2019 Manufacturing Continues to Weaken, no Floor Yet in Sight

Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

15 February 2019 Seasonal Problems and Sampling Error Explain December's Sales Drop

We can't remember the last time a single economic report was as surprising as the December retail sales numbers, released yesterday.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

14 February 2019 Five Straight 0.2% Core CPI Gains Aren't Unduly Alarming, Yet

The core CPI has now risen by 0.2% in each of the past five months, a streak last seen 11 years ago.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

13 February 2019 Few Near-Term Upside Risks to Core Inflation Medium-Term Threat Rising

The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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U.S. Document Vault, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research