U.S. Document Vault
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In one line: Rising stock prices lift small business sentiment; labor market still tight.... More by Ian Shepherdson
A reader pointed out Friday that the standard measurement of the impact of the weather on January payrolls--the number of people unable to work due to the weather, less the long-term average--likely overstated the boost from the extremely mild temperatures.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Unsustainable, but the trend is still pretty strong.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We raised our forecast for today's January payroll number after the ADP report, to 200K from 160K.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Productivity growth has peaked; expect a clear H1 slowdown.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Not as good as the headlines.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: The post-tariff plunge in imports is starting to reverse.... More by Ian Shepherdson
In one line: Spectacular, but it likely overstates the official numbers.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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