Pantheon Macroeconomics - We have had a modest rethink of our June payroll forecast and have nudged up our number to 150K, still below the 180K consensus.  Our forecast has changed because we have re-estimated some of our models, not because of the 172K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls.  ADP is a model-based estimate, not a reliable survey indicator.

U.S. | 8 July. 2016 June Payrolls Should be Better than May, but no Return to Trend Yet
We have had a modest rethink of our June payroll forecast and have nudged up our number to 150K, still below the 180K consensus. Our forecast has changed because we have re-estimated some of our models, not because of the 172K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls. ADP is a model-based estimate, not a reliable survey indicator.

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8 July. 2016 June Payrolls Should be Better than May, but no Return to Trend Yet

By Ian Shepherdson

We have had a modest rethink of our June payroll forecast and have nudged up our number to 150K, still below the 180K consensus. Our forecast has changed because we have re-estimated some of our models, not because of the 172K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls. ADP is a model-based estimate, not a reliable survey indicator.

Posted: 8th Jul 2016 in 'U.S.'

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