Pantheon Macroeconomics - We are expecting a hefty increase in the August ADP employment number today--our forecast is 225K, above the 175K consensus --but we do not anticipate a similar official payroll number on Friday. Remember, the ADP number is based on a model which incorporates lagged official employment data, the Philly Fed's ADS Business Conditions Index, and data from firms which use ADP for payroll processing.

Independent Incisive Illuminating

Skip to Main Content

31 August. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Strong August Payrolls, But it's Unreliable

By Ian Shepherdson

We are expecting a hefty increase in the August ADP employment number today--our forecast is 225K, above the 175K consensus --but we do not anticipate a similar official payroll number on Friday. Remember, the ADP number is based on a model which incorporates lagged official employment data, the Philly Fed's ADS Business Conditions Index, and data from firms which use ADP for payroll processing.

Posted: 31st Aug 2016 in 'U.S. Documents'

This document is only available to subscribers of our U.S. Economic Research.

Request a complimentary trial or login here

Are you taking full advantage of our daily publications?

Pantheon Macroeconomics produce daily publications for U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, UK and Asia, as well as analysis on key data within a few minutes of their release. To activate a complimentary trial on any of these areas, please click here.

U.S. Economic ResearchEurozone Economic ResearchLatin America Economic ResearchUK Economic ResearchAsia Economic Research

« Go back to publications list, or Click here to register for a complimentary trial

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.S. Documents | 31 August. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Strong August Payrolls, But it's Unreliable

ADP, payroll, Chicago, pmi, employment, personal incomes, business sales, ism, oil sector, mortgage, pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent advice, independent analysis, advisors, advisers, advisor, advice, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, Dr. Ian Shepherdson, Ian Shepherdson, financial market, financial, market, finance