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UK Publications

14 February 2017 Brace for January Data to Show Another Hefty Rise in CPI Inflation

By Samuel Tombs

January's consumer price report, released today, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to 1.9%--its highest rate since June 2014--from 1.6% in December. Inflation will continue to take big upward steps over the coming months, as retailers pass on to consumers large increase in import prices and energy companies increase tariffs.

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13 February 2017 Too Soon to Conclude the Economy is Finally Rebalancing

By Samuel Tombs

Data on industrial production and trade released last week have fanned hopes that the U.K.'s growth model is moving away from its excessive reliance on household spending, and towards production and exports. But a close look at the underlying drivers of the strong headline figures suggests that it is too soon to hope that the economy is undergoing a major rebalancing.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (149.08 KB) Download

*Feb 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook*

By Ian Shepherdson

How and when will the Fed respond to Fiscal Easing?

Category: U.S. Documents / Document PDF (3.61 MB) Download

10 February 2017 Still no Sign of a Sustained Trade Boost From Sterling's Depreciation

By Samuel Tombs

Today's trade figures likely will continue to show that the benefits from sterling's depreciation are being outweighed by the costs. Exports still are barely growing, but consumers are about to endure a substantial import price shock. The monthly trade deficit has been extremely volatile over the last year, generating a series of excessively upbeat or gloomy headlines. The truth is that the deficit has been on a slightly deteriorating trend, as our first chart shows. We think the trade deficit likely narrowed to £3.8B in December, from £4.2B in November, bringing it closer to its rolling 12-month average of £3.0B.

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9 February 2017 Weak December Production to Raise Spectre of GDP Revision

By Samuel Tombs

Figures due on Friday likely will show that the increase in industrial production in December was much smaller than the 0.6% month-to-month assumed by the ONS in its preliminar y Q4 GDP estimate. We expect a 0.2% rise, which would leave production down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, rather than up 0.1% as the ONS initially estimated.

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8 February 2017 Housing Market Flagging Again as Income Squeeze Intensifies

By Samuel Tombs

The MPC's interest rate cut in August, and the continued willingness of banks to lend, bolstered the housing market immediately after the referendum. But the latest indicators suggest that the market is slowing again, as the financial pressures on households' incomes intensify.

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7 February 2017 January's Rise in Car Sales is Misleading, it won't be Sustained

By Samuel Tombs

The 5% year-over-year increase in private new car registrations in January ended a nine-month period of falling sales. January's increase, however, is unlikely to be a bellwether for car sales over the whole year, or for the strength of consumer spending more generally.

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6 February 2017 Growth Indicators Start to Turn Down as Price Pressures Escalate

By Samuel Tombs

The run of above-consensus news on the U.K. economy came to an abrupt end last week, as a series of survey indicators for January took a turn for the worse. After six months of breathing space, the economic consequences of the Brexit vote are increasingly being felt.

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3 February 2017 MPC Signals Newfound Supply Optimism, no Near-Term Rate Hike

By Samuel Tombs

The absence of hawkish undertones in the minutes of the MPC's meeting or in the Inflation Report forecasts took markets by surprise yesterday. The dominant view on the Committee remains that the economy will slow over the next couple of years, preventing wage growth from reaching a pace which would put inflation on trac k permanently to exceed the 2% target.

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2 February 2017 Rising Inflation Expectations to Yield Hawkish Talk from the MPC Today

By Samuel Tombs

Expectations are running high that the MPC will strike a more hawkish tone today in the minutes of this month's meeting and in the quarterly Inflation Report. Investors are pricing in a 45% chance of the MPC raising interest rates before the end of 2017, up from 30% before the last Report in November.

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