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UK Publications

21 July 2017 Q2 Consumption will be Weak, Despite the Pickup in Retail Sales

By Samuel Tombs

On the face of it, June's retail sales figures suggest that households have splurged in Q2, re-energising GDP growth after its slowdown in Q1. Sales volumes rose by 0.6% month-to-month in June, completing a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter jump in Q2.

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H2 2017 U.K. Outlook - Weak GDP and Wage Growth Will Keep Higher Interest Rates at Bay

By Samuel Tombs

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

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20 July 2017 Retail Sales Likely Jumped in June, but the Trend Remains Weak

By Samuel Tombs

Surveys suggest that today's retail sales figures will show that sales volumes increased by around 1% month-to-month in June, significantly exceeding the consensus, 0.4%. But the pickup in June likely will be just a blip; the further intensification of the squeeze on real wages and a tightening of unsecured lending standards will keep retail sales on a flat path in the second half of 2017.

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19 July 2017 CPI Inflation Still is set to Exceed 3% this Year, Despite June's Pullback

By Samuel Tombs

The fall in CPI inflation to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% in May, greatly undershot expectations for an unchanged rate and it has made a vote by the MPC to keep interest rates at 0.25% in August a near certainty.

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18 July 2017 Rising Leverage will Prevent House Prices from Falling this year

By Samuel Tombs

The slowdown in households' real incomes has taken a swift toll on the housing market this year. Measures of house prices from Nationwide, Halifax, LSL and Rightmove essentially have flatlined since the end of 2016, following four years of rapid growth, as our first chart shows.

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17 July 2017 CPI Inflation Likely Held Steady in June, but will Exceed 3% Soon

By Samuel Tombs

Economists are divided evenly on whether Tuesday's consumer price figures will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.9% or edged down to 2.8% in June.

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14 July 2017 The Unwinding of QE Remains a Long Way Off

By Samuel Tombs

In an interview with The Times yesterday, MPC member Ian McCafferty--who voted to raise interest rates in June--suggested he also might favour starting to run down the Bank's £435B s tock of gilt purchases soon.

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*July 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

By Samuel Tombs

Growth is too slow to warrant a rate hike...domestically-generated inflation remain weak

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13 July 2017 Don't Extrapolate from May's Uptick in Basic Wage Growth

By Samuel Tombs

Yesterday's labour market data gave sterling a shot in the arm on t wo counts. First, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to just 4.5% in May, from 4.6% in April.

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12 July 2017 Wage Growth Likely will Remain too "Anaemic" for the Governor this Year

By Samuel Tombs

Mark Carney emphasised in his Mansion House speech last month that he wants wage growth to "begin to firm" from recent "anaemic" rates before voting to raise interest rates.

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