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UK Publications

6 June 2017 May Services PMI Dents Second Quarter Rebound Hopes

By Samuel Tombs

The fall in the services PMI to 53.8 in May, from 55.8 in April, is a setback for hopes that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 will be fleeting. Both business activity and orders rose at their slowest rates since February.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (141.37 KB) Download

5 June 2017 The Election Race is Still Tightening, Setting up Sterling for More Volatility

By Samuel Tombs

The Conservatives' opinion poll lead continued to decline over the last week, suggesting that a landslide victory on Thursday no longer is likely. Indeed, the Tories' average lead over Labour in the 10 most recent opinion polls has fallen to just 6%, down from a peak of nearly 20% a month ago.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (134.2 KB) Download

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track

By Samuel Tombs

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (147.02 KB) Download

1 June 2017 Money Data Suggest Q1's Slowdown Won't be Short-lived

By Samuel Tombs

April's money and credit figures suggest that GDP growth has remained sluggish in Q2. Households' broad money holdings increased by just 0.3% month-to-month in April.

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31 May 2017 Manifestos Point to Very Different Public Borrowing Paths

By Samuel Tombs

The recent narrowing of the Conservatives' opinion poll lead suggests that investors, particularly in the gilt market, now must consider other parties' fiscal proposals.

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30 May 2017 Should Investors Start to Fear a Hung Parliament?

By Samuel Tombs

The Conservatives' opinion poll rating has fallen dramatically over the last 10 days or so, pushing sterling down and forcing investors to confront the possibility that Theresa May might not increase her majority much from the current paltry 17 MPs.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (147.85 KB) Download

26 May 2017 Soft GDP Shows Sterling's Drop to be the Least Successful Ever

By Samuel Tombs

The second estimate of Q1 GDP made for grim reading. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.2%--the joint-slowest rate since Q4 2012--from the preliminary estimate of 0.3%.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (131.99 KB) Download

25 May 2017 Second Estimate of Q1 GDP to Confirm Sharp Slowdown

By Samuel Tombs

We expect the second estimate of Q1 GDP, released today, to restate that quarter-on-quarter growth slowed to just 0.3%, from 0.7% in Q4. The second estimate of growth rarely is different to the first.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (135.22 KB) Download

24 May 2017 Weak Tax Receipts Cast Doubt on Business Surveys' Optimism

By Samuel Tombs

April's public finances indicate that the economy has remained weak in Q2, casting doubt on the suggestion from recent business surveys that the slowdown in Q1 was just a blip.

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23 May 2017 Has the Outlook for Business Investment Brightened?

By Samuel Tombs

The recent deceleration in households' real spending means that either business investment or net exports will have to pickup if the economy is to avoid a severe slowdown this year.

Category: UK Documents / Document PDF (143.52 KB) Download

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