U.K. Document Vault
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Investors have revised down their expectations for interest rates since the November Inflation Report and now only a 50% chance of a 25bp hike in Bank Rate is priced-in by the end of this year.... More by Samuel Tombs
It's tempting to conclude from the recent decline in consumers' confidence that growth in real spending will continue to weaken over the coming quarters, from the already modest 1.8% year-over-year rate in Q3.... More by Samuel Tombs
The Prime Minister achieved a rare victory yesterday, when the Commons passed the government-backed Brady amendment.... More by Samuel Tombs
Some closely-watched composite leading indicators for the U.K. economy, and for many others, are flashing red.... More by Samuel Tombs
Votes in the House of Commons to day likely will mark the start of MPs stamping their collective will on the Brexit process, following the Prime Minister's botched attempt at getting the current Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration through parliament earlier this month.... More by Samuel Tombs
A Soft Brexit Remains The Most Likely Outcome....So The MPC Soon Up The Pace Of Tightening... More by Samuel Tombs
At first glance, the U.K. consumer price data show a perplexing absence of domestically generated inflation.... More by Samuel Tombs
MPs look set to take a decisive step next Tuesday towards removing the risk of a calamitous no-deal Brexit at the end of March.... More by Samuel Tombs
On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.... More by Samuel Tombs
November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.... More by Samuel Tombs
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