U.S. Key Issues
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The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.... More by Ian Shepherdson
While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.... More by Ian Shepherdson
It's hard to read the minutes of the April 30/May 1 FOMC meeting as anything other than a statement of the Fed's intent to do nothing for some time yet.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Markets are caught in a trade loop.... More by Ian Shepherdson
Core producer price inflation is falling, and it probably has not yet hit bottom.... More by Ian Shepherdson
We have long argued that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal this spring, because it is in the interests of both sides, economically and politically, to do so.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.... More by Ian Shepherdson
The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.... More by Ian Shepherdson
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