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U.S. Key Issues
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U.S. Key Issues

Trade and Taxes are Bifurcating the Economy

9 May 2019 Core PPI Inflation has Fallen Recently, but the Bottom is Near

Core producer price inflation is falling, and it probably has not yet hit bottom.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

7 May 2019 The China Trade Deal Hangs in the Balance, but all is not Lost

We have long argued that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal this spring, because it is in the interests of both sides, economically and politically, to do so.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say?

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

26 April 2019 First Quarter Growth Likely was Very Respectable, Q2 Should be Good too

We're expecting to learn today that the economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized rate in the first quarter, rather better than we expected at the turn of the year--our initial assumption was 1-to-2%--and above the consensus, 2.3%.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

25 April 2019 Aircraft will Flatter March Durable Goods Orders Expect a Weak Core

If you wanted to be charitable, you could argue that the downturn in the rate of growth of core durable goods orders in recent months has not been as bad as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

22 April 2019 So Much for the Q1 Rollover: GDP Appears to have Breached 2%

The U.S. consumer is back on track, almost. We have argued in recent months that the sharp slowdown in the rate of growth of consumption is mostly a story about a transition from last year's surge, when spending was boosted by the tax cuts and, later, by falling gas prices, to a sustainable pace roughly in line with real after-tax income growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

12 April 2019 Foreign Trade Ought to Offset Weak Q1 Domestic Demand, in Part

The sluggishness of consumers' spending and business investment in the first quarter means that hopes of a headline GDP print close to 2% rely in part on the noisier components of the economy, namely, inventories and foreign trade.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

28 March 2019 Growth is Slowing, but Q1 Unlikely to be as Bad as Feared

Fourth quarter GDP growth is likely to be revised down today.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

27 March 2019 Can the Fed Engineer Sustained Non-in ationary Wage Growth

The Fed wants price stability--currently defined as 2% inflation--and maximum sustainable employment.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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