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U.S. Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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U.S. Key Issues

Trade and Taxes are Bifurcating the Economy

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

30 May 2019 More Pain Before the Gain Will Markets Force Trump to the Table

The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 May 2019 Will Consumers Save Less this Year, in Order to Spend More

While businesses--and farmers--fret over the damage already wrought by the trade war with China and the further pain to come, consumers are remarkably happy.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

23 May 2019 Patience to Persist FOMC Members Content to Wait for Developments

It's hard to read the minutes of the April 30/May 1 FOMC meeting as anything other than a statement of the Fed's intent to do nothing for some time yet.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 May 2019 Core PPI Inflation has Fallen Recently, but the Bottom is Near

Core producer price inflation is falling, and it probably has not yet hit bottom.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

7 May 2019 The China Trade Deal Hangs in the Balance, but all is not Lost

We have long argued that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal this spring, because it is in the interests of both sides, economically and politically, to do so.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

1 May 2019 What Will Chair Powell say About Strong Q1 Growth and Low Inflation

The FOMC meeting today will be a non-event from a policy perspective but we are very curious to see what both the written statement and the Chair will have to say about the unexpected strength of the economy in the first quarter.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say?

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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