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U.S. Key Issues
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U.S. Key Issues

Trade and Taxes are Bifurcating the Economy

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
  23 Jan 2020 Leading Indicators are being Hit by the Trade War: Ignore, for Now

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators appears to signal that the U.S. economy is plunging headlong into recession.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  16 Dec 2019 The Trade Deal Should Lift Business Sentiment, but Modestly

The "Phase One" China trade deal announced late last week is a step in the right direction, but a small one. With no official text available as we reach our deadline, we're relying on media reporting, but the outline of the agreement is clear.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  10 Dec 2019 Small Firms Like Rising Stock Prices, even as Trade Uncertainty Continues

The monthly survey of small businesses conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business is quite sensitive to short-term movements in the stock market, so we're expecting an increase in the November reading, due today.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  26 Nov 2019 The Export Collapse Signalled by the Late Summer ISM has been Averted

We were terrified by the plunge in the ISM manufacturing export orders index in August and September, which appeared to point to a 2008-style meltdown in trade flows.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  25 Nov 2019 Deferring the December 15 Tariffs is not Alone Enough to Lift Growth

The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  8 Nov 2019 Markets Like "Phase One" Trade, but the Next Stages Will be Difficult

Markets clearly love the idea that the "Phase One" trade deal with China will be signed soon, at a location apparently still subject to haggling between the parties.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  16 Oct 2019 Did Pre-Tariff Spending Boost September Retail Sales

Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and higher taxes depress growth, other things equal.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  29 Aug 2019 Is the Growth Drag from Foreign Trade set to Persist

Net foreign trade was a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter, subtracting 0.7 percentage points from the headline number.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  9 July 2019 Did the Rising China Tariffs and the Mexico Threat Scare Small Firms?

Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.... More by Ian Shepherdson

Region: U.S. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

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