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U.K. Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

(click to enlarge)

28 May 2019 Count on Consumers to Drag the Economy Through the Brexit Mess

The Prime Minister's resignation and the stillborn launch of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill last week has forced us to revise our Brexit base case, from a soft E.U. departure on October 31 to continued paralysis.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

24 May 2019 Switching Our Brexit Base Case From Soft Departure to Paralysis

The chances of our Brexit base case--a soft departure just before the current October 31 deadline--playing out have declined sharply over the last two weeks.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade

The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 May 2019 Is the Risk of a No-Deal Brexit Rising Again?

Unsurprisingly, cross-party Brexit talks are not going well.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

8 May 2019 Don't Extrapolate from April's Double-Digit Decline in Car Sales

The 10.3% year-over-year decline in private new car registrations in April likely is not a sign that the trend in either vehic le sales or consumers' overall spending is taking a turn f or the worse.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

3 May 2019 The MPC Signals that Rate Hikes are Coming, Though Not Just Yet

The MPC restated its commitment to an "ongoing tightening of monetary policy" yesterday, but provided no new guidance to suggest that the next hike is imminent.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

2 May 2019 Households' Spending will Tick Over Just Fine Without a Credit Impulse

GDP growth currently is subdued by historical standards, but at least it is not debt-fuelled.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 April 2019 Ten Reasons to Expect a Hawkish Nudge from the MPC this Week

The MPC likely will vote unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

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