U.K. Key Issues
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Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.
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On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.... More by Samuel Tombs
November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.... More by Samuel Tombs
The Prime Minister has revealed that her Plan B for Brexit is to get Eurosceptics within the Tory party on side in an attempt to show the E.U. that a deal could be done if the backstop for Northern Ireland was amended. Her plan is highly likely to fail, again.... More by Samuel Tombs
Signs that the government is softening its Brexit plans, in response to its substantial defeat in the Commons last week, has enabled sterling to recover most of the ground lost against the dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of last year.... More by Samuel Tombs
The consensus forecast for retail sales in December has been consistently too upbeat in recent years and we think most analysts are too sanguine yet again.... More by Samuel Tombs
The most eye-catching aspect of December's consumer prices report was the pick-up in core inflation to 1.9%, from 1.8% in November, above the no-change consensus.... More by Samuel Tombs
Swap markets currently price-in RPI inflation falling to 3.0% this time next year, from 3.2% in November, before recovering to 3.8% at the start of 2020.... More by Samuel Tombs
Economists are evenly split on December's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, with half expecting CPI inflation to fall to 2.1%, from 2.3% in November, and the other half expecting a 2.2% print.... More by Samuel Tombs
A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.... More by Samuel Tombs
The government remains on course to lose next Tuesday's Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--by a huge margin.... More by Samuel Tombs
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