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U.K. Key Issues
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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
24 January 2019 Future Fiscal Stimulus Is Still Secure, Despite Worse Borrowing Data

On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

23 January 2019 The MPC Won't Risk Letting the Labour Market Overheat

November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

22 January 2019 The Prime Minister's Plan B Has Little Chance of Success

The Prime Minister has revealed that her Plan B for Brexit is to get Eurosceptics within the Tory party on side in an attempt to show the E.U. that a deal could be done if the backstop for Northern Ireland was amended. Her plan is highly likely to fail, again.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

21 January 2019 How Far Will Sterling Jump if a Soft Brexit Becomes Government Policy?

Signs that the government is softening its Brexit plans, in response to its substantial defeat in the Commons last week, has enabled sterling to recover most of the ground lost against the dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of last year.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

18 January 2019 December's Retail Sales Report Will Be a Clanger

The consensus forecast for retail sales in December has been consistently too upbeat in recent years and we think most analysts are too sanguine yet again.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

17 January 2019 Rising Services Inflation Matters More than the Falling Headline Rate

The most eye-catching aspect of December's consumer prices report was the pick-up in core inflation to 1.9%, from 1.8% in November, above the no-change consensus.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

16 January 2019 Markets' Medium-Term Expectations for RPI Inflation Look Too High

Swap markets currently price-in RPI inflation falling to 3.0% this time next year, from 3.2% in November, before recovering to 3.8% at the start of 2020.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

15 January 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell in December to Within a Whisker of the 2% Target

Economists are evenly split on December's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, with half expecting CPI inflation to fall to 2.1%, from 2.3% in November, and the other half expecting a 2.2% print.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

11 January 2019 MPs Will Steer the PM to a Softer Brexit After Next Week's Defeat

The government remains on course to lose next Tuesday's Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--by a huge margin.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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