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U.K. Key Issues
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U.K. Key Issues

Brexit

Our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, regularly appraises how the economy is coping with the prospect of Brexit in the U.K Monitor, Datanotes and Chartbook. Here, we have highlighted some recent, key reports.

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  • Type: Economic Monitor
U.K. H2 2019 Outlook - A no-deal Brexit remains unlikely - uncertainty alone won't cause the economy to stagnate

Our Brexit base case is that the new Prime Minister will request, and the E.U. will grant, another lengthy extension of the U.K.'s membership in October, thereby perpetuating damaging uncertainty, but avoiding the pain of no-deal.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

5 June 2019 Don't Overlook the Construction Sector's Hidden Supports

The flow of downbeat business surveys continued yesterday, with the release of the Markit/CIPS construction survey.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

4 June 2019 The Q2 Fall in Manufacturing Output Won't Alter the MPC's Course

The downbeat tone of Markit's May manufacturing survey shouldn't come as a surprise, given the weak global backdrop and the inevitable fading of the boost to output from Brexit preparations.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

3 June 2019 Economic Data Still Don't Warrant the Gilt Market's Gloom

Gilts continued to rally last week, with 10-year yields dropping to their lowest since October 2016, and the gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to the smallest margin since September 2008.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Weekly  Download

31 May 2019 The Economy Won't Be Knocked Off Course by Rising Household Saving

Households' willingness to save a smaller fraction of their incomes goes a long way to explaining why the U.K. economy hasn't lost too much momentum since the Brexit vote.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

30 May 2019 Are Markets Underpricing the Risk of a Corbyn Government?

The risk of a snap general election has jumped following Theresa May's resignation and the widespread opposition within the Conservative party to the compromises she proposed last week, which might have paved the way to a soft Brexit.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

29 May 2019 Consumer and Business Confidence Show Diverging Responses to Brexit

May's E.C. Economic Sentiment survey was a blow to hopes that the six-month stay of execution on Brexit would facilitate a recovery in confidence.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K.   Publication:  Monitor Daily  Download

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