Key Issues

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

2 Sept 2019 Anti No-Deal MPs Likely will Prevail, Though the Timing is Tight this Week

We still think it is a question of when--not if-- MPs will be successful in taking a no -deal Brexit off the table.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly Download

16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears

July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline nears.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

12 Aug 2019 Q2's GDP Drop is an Inventory-Driven Blip, Growth will Spring Back in Q3

Q2's GDP figures create a terrible first impression, but a closer look suggests that the risk of a recession remains very low.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly Download

29 July 2019 The MPC Won't Provide Meaningful Policy Signals this Side of Brexit

The MPC won't seek to make waves on Thursday. ... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly Download

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily Download

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021

The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily Download

U.K. H2 2019 Outlook - A no-deal Brexit remains unlikely - uncertainty alone won't cause the economy to stagnate

Our Brexit base case is that the new Prime Minister will request, and the E.U. will grant, another lengthy extension of the U.K.'s membership in October, thereby perpetuating damaging uncertainty, but avoiding the pain of no-deal.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily Download

Page 2 of 19 (186 Documents)« Previous Next »

Key Issues

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3

2 Sept 2019 Anti No-Deal MPs Likely will Prevail, Though the Timing is Tight this Week

16 Aug 2019 Consumers Aren't Going to Blink as the Brexit Deadline Nears

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted

12 Aug 2019 Q2's GDP Drop is an Inventory-Driven Blip, Growth will Spring Back in Q3

29 July 2019 The MPC Won't Provide Meaningful Policy Signals this Side of Brexit

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ

17 July 2019 Net Trade will Decide the Fortunes of the EZ Economy Through 2021

U.K. H2 2019 Outlook - A no-deal Brexit remains unlikely - uncertainty alone won't cause the economy to stagnate

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