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The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.... More by Samuel Tombs
We still think it is a question of when--not if-- MPs will be successful in taking a no -deal Brexit off the table.... More by Samuel Tombs
July's retail sales figures--the first official data for Q3--provided a reassuring signal that consumers can be counted on to drive the economy as the Brexit deadline nears.... More by Samuel Tombs
Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.... More by Samuel Tombs
Q2's GDP figures create a terrible first impression, but a closer look suggests that the risk of a recession remains very low.... More by Samuel Tombs
The MPC won't seek to make waves on Thursday. ... More by Samuel Tombs
In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.... More by Samuel Tombs
Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.... More by Claus Vistesen
The outlook for growth in the EZ economy is currently both stable and relatively uncomplicated, at least based on the most widely-watched leading indicators.... More by Claus Vistesen
Our Brexit base case is that the new Prime Minister will request, and the E.U. will grant, another lengthy extension of the U.K.'s membership in October, thereby perpetuating damaging uncertainty, but avoiding the pain of no-deal.... More by Samuel Tombs
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