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Key Issues
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.

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Key Issues

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  8 July 2020 A Stamp Duty Cut Wouldn't Send the Housing Market into Overdrive

Speculation has mounted in the press that the Chancellor will raise the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax temporarily to £500K, from £125K, in today's Summer Statement.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  7 July 2020 A Meagre Post-Lockdown Rise in German Manufacturing Output?

Last week we reported on the V-shaped recovery in German retail sales--see here--as lockdowns ended mid- way through Q2.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  7 July 2020 Don't Mistake Pent-up Demand for a Genuinely Strong Recovery

The next couple of months likely will see some activity data rebound to close to pre-Covid levels, fuelling hopes of a V-shaped recovery.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  6 July 2020 How Would the BoE Reduce its Balance Sheet, if the Need Arose?

Governor Bailey signalled a potential shift in the Bank of England's approach to withdrawing monetary stimulus--whenever the time comes--last month in an article for Bloomberg Opinion.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Weekly [Download]

  3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs?

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  3 July 2020 We're Now Slightly Less Optimistic about Inventories in the EZ

This week's economic reports have provided clear, and uplifting, evidence that EZ consumers came out swinging as lockdowns were lifted.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  2 July 2020 First V-Shaped Rebound Spotted in the Wild, in German Retail Sales

One of the key positive signs in the Eurozone data since the virus hit has been the evidence that households' liquid money balances have been well supported by job retention schemes, extended unemployment insurance, and aggressive monetary stimulus.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  2 July 2020 Don't Expect Manufacturing Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year

The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.... More by Samuel Tombs

Region: U.K. Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

  1 July 2020 French Households Rushed to the Store as the Economy Reopened

Yesterday's EZ data showed that French households came out swinging as the economy reopened. Consumers' spending, ex-services, jumped by 36.6% month-to-month in May, driving the year-over-year rate up to -8.3%, from -32.7% in April.... More by Claus Vistesen

Region: Eurozone Publication: Monitor Daily [Download]

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