This housing market recovery will be slow.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tranquil labor market conditions unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Something funny in the data; on course for a rise in Q1 either way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hit by a fall in the goods surplus; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP rose at a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1, powered primarily by consumers’ spending.
- Data released before the GDP estimate next Thursday, however, could shift our forecast materially.
- Home sales likely still have further to fall in Q2, despite their big drop in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic activity saw a solid improvement in February, as private consumption gathers speed.
- Increased fiscal uncertainty and a cautious US Fed complicate Brazil’s economic and rates outlook.
- The minutes of the last BCCh policy meeting strike a more dovish tone, but things have changed recently.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- EZ construction rose in February, but less so than implied by the advance data; seasonals to blame?
- Either way, construction was a boost to EZ GDP in Q1, and it suggests risks are tilted to the upside.
- The EZ current account surplus dipped in February and will fall further; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brexit, demand uncertainty, staff shortages and high interest rates have held back business investment.
- All of these drags should ease, with staff shortages falling and the MPC likely to cut rates this summer.
- Firms’ investment intentions point to 1.5% year-over- year capex growth, an upside risk to our forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Sharp drop in pharmaceuticals drags on Singaporean exports
Indonesian retail sales benefit from an election pop in February
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Japanese exports grow sturdily in March, lifted by strong Chinese demand and a weak yen.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoK stays put as inflation remains elevated, no surprise to the market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
- Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
- February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Revised fiscal forecasts presented to Congress
- Mexico — Recap of the first presidential debate
- Colombia — Concerns over Petro’s populist measures
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s exports grew solidly in March, thanks to burgeoning Chinese demand and a weaker JPY.
- Demand from the US and EU slowed, car-related shipments fell sharply, but chip exports soared.
- The export recovery will be safeguarded by the ICT upturn, while capital goods demand should improve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
- But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
- …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
