In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI improves on higher output and weak JPY; services activity expands amid higher cost pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Housing market activity likely to slow sharply in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING IN JUNE...
- ...IF THE INFLATION AND WAGE DATA COOPERATE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surging, will spending follow confidence up?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Month-to-month falls in the Nationwide and Halifax house-price indices in March were a blip.
- Mortgage interest rates will resume their gentle decline in May, and estate agents remain upbeat.
- We expect house prices to rise 4% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and the same again in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Rounding off another weak quarter for equipment investment.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Banxico likely to move to the sidelines next month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Durable orders were stronger than we expected in March, but they still fell in Q1 as a whole.
- GDP likely rose by 2.6% in Q1; this week's data have triggered only marginal changes in our forecast.
- Time lags and generous seasonals mean today's initial claims data likely will be little changed, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- BI surprised yesterday with a 25bp hike, yet again citing a need to stabilise the IDR; this is just overkill.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth in March barely stayed in the black; price effects saved the day…
- …Real wage growth continues to tread water around zero percent, making a Q2 turnaround unlikely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged, as Japan hasn’t attained sustainable inflation yet.
- Broad wage growth is likely to lag strong pay rises at large employers, while consumption looks soft.
- But building pressure on JPY will probably force the Bank to strike a more hawkish tone on future rates.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We’re lifting our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth, by 0.2pp to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- German manufacturing and services output are on the mend, while retail sales are still stuck in the mud.
- Construction was boosted by mild weather in Q1; output will fall sharply in the second quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The first estimate of 23/24 borrowing topped the OBR’s forecast by £7B, but revisions may improve the picture.
- The OBR will likely revise up its forecast for debt interest payments and nudge it down for the tax-to-GDP ratio...
- ...But the Chancellor can pencil in even more implau- sible forecasts for spending in order to cut taxes now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Output prices likely rising more slowly than the CBI’s survey implies.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A strong—but dumb—policy response.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
