- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Sharp drop in pharmaceuticals drags on Singaporean exports
Indonesian retail sales benefit from an election pop in February
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Japanese exports grow sturdily in March, lifted by strong Chinese demand and a weak yen.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoK stays put as inflation remains elevated, no surprise to the market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
- Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
- February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Revised fiscal forecasts presented to Congress
- Mexico — Recap of the first presidential debate
- Colombia — Concerns over Petro’s populist measures
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s exports grew solidly in March, thanks to burgeoning Chinese demand and a weaker JPY.
- Demand from the US and EU slowed, car-related shipments fell sharply, but chip exports soared.
- The export recovery will be safeguarded by the ICT upturn, while capital goods demand should improve.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
- But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
- …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Rising energy inflation is a threat to the June rate cut, but we think falling core inflation will do the trick.
- The early Easter sustained services inflation in March, due to a leap in airfares; it will fall in April.
- Our forecast for a July rate cut is now hanging by a thread; we’ll update our view with the April HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline and services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp and 0.2pp, respectively…
- …Reflecting stronger-than-expected underlying price pressures, not the impact of an early Easter.We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but are very close to delaying that first cut to August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Encouraging, but too soon to call a real recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Large fall is likely an Easter timing quirk; the trend still looks flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
LABOR MARKET WARNING SIGNS ARE FLASHING RED…
- …BUT CHAIR POWELL SEES NO “CRACKS”
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: A setback was coming, but the improvement remains intact.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Chinese GDP beats expectations, despite an uneven recovery and looming oversupply issues
Duncan WrigleyChina+
